| Betting Analysis
RBC Canadian Open picks 2025: Our experts are completely split on Shane Lowry
This is a first for our Golf Digest betting panel—which has been making picks on PGA Tour events since gambling was legalized in 2018.
We've had consensus bets to win with three or more of our experts picking the same player to win. We've also had consensus fades of players that we've predicted would not win. Never before has the same player been either picked to win or faded by every handicapper on our panel on the same week. That's what we have this week with Shane Lowry.
Lowry is a bit of a conundrum. The Irishman has been great this season—ranking fifth out of all PGA Tour golfers in strokes gained/total. But his fantastic play hasn't netted a victory. In fact, he's now gone almost six full years without an individual win on the PGA Tour. That presents a question to bettors: Does this week represent an opportunity in a weaker field to finally earn him his own trophy? Or can he not be trusted.
Our Golf Digest betting panel is torn. Read on for analysis from our panel, which is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 RBC Canadian Open:
RBC Canadian Open picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the Week: Shane Lowry (22-1, FanDuel) — There’s a lot of chatter about Lowry’s winless streak, but continue to put yourself in positions like he’s done all year, and he will get it done. The Irishman continues to play such consistent, quality golf, and against a weak field this’ll be another great chance to get over the finish line.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Robert MacIntyre (28-1, FanDuel) — The defending champ, albeit at a different course, has started to see an uptick in his ball-striking as of late and the putter has warmed up with the weather. I worry that this is just a bomber’s track and Bob doesn’t have enough distance to make everything easier on himself, but he’s become Mr. National Open and has the game trending properly.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Shane Lowry (22-1, FanDuel) — Lowry is a top-three iron player and tee-to-green player the last six months, per datagolf, and he’s been striping the irons in recent weeks, too. With a hot putter, he can win anywhere at the moment.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Sam Burns (30-1, FanDuel) — Something in Canada inspires Sam Burns. Burns has played the last three Canadian Opens, finishing fourth and 10th in two of them. Riding a streak of five straight top 30s on tour, Burns is a birdie machine who can let it loose off the tee. One month ago, he finished fifth at the CJ Cup. TPC Craig Ranch is a decent comp for TPC Toronto. Following a tough test at Memorial (T-12), Sam seems ready for a long scoring exam. He’s won at Sanderson Farms and Colonial, another par 70 venue on tour. Sam is burning up the greens. In his last five starts, he’s gained an average of +5.4 strokes on the field with his flat stick.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Taylor Pendrith (28-1, DraftKings) — I realize this will be a popular one with the Canadian’s familiarity with TPC Toronto (a runner-up in a Canadian Tour event here in 2019, plus many rounds and practice sessions here). I love that fact he led the elite field at the Memorial in SG/approach and was second in SG/tee to green. This is not an elite field, and he’ll give himself enough chances for birdies—let’s just hope the putter warms up in familiar confines and his home country.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Keith Mitchell (45-1, Bet365) — As Andy Lack pointed out in this week’s DFS article, the host venue for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, is a driver-heavy and middle-to-long iron test. That should be up the alley of Keith Mitchell, who is one of the top 15 longest hitters on tour and was on a scorching-hot tee-to-green run before missing the cut at the PGA Championship. After that, though, he made the cut at Colonial, a venue that hasn’t been all that kind to him, finishing T-36. Pre-PGA Keith had a stretch of 18th, 12th and seventh going. Would strongly suggest taking him FRL, too.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Taylor Pendrith (28-1, DraftKings) — Taylor Pendrith checks all the boxes I am looking for this week. He has a tremendous amount of power off the tee. He’s a great long iron player. He’s got a former win at TPC Craig Ranch, one of my favorite comp courses, and most importantly, he’s coming off an elite tee-to-green performance at Muirfield Village where he led the field in approach. I hit Nick Taylor at this event two years ago, hopefully another Canadian can come through for us!
Past results: We have another (easy) winner, with Andy Lack cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s PGA Championship victory at +500. That’s Andy’s first win of 2025 and gives our panel nine individual victories in 2025.
RBC Canadian Open picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Johnny Keefer (66-1, BetMGM) — This kid has superstar potential. He has a victory and a playoff loss on the Korn Ferry Tour in his past three finishes. He hits the ball a mile and is a birdie-maker. I think it says a lot that the oddsmakers have him prized above a ton of proven PGA Tour players with more status than him. They’re scared of a win, and this would be the perfect course for him to do it.
Mayo: Ricky Castillo (110-1, Bet365) — Castillo possesses plus distance, elite short-term iron play, quality chipping and a sweet shell necklace. This course has the potential to play a lot like TPC Craig Ranch, a spot where Castillo finished T-5 less than a month ago.
Gdula: Matti Schmid (80-1, FanDuel) — Schmid MC’d Memorial with brutal short game numbers but is consistently gaining with distance and ball-striking of late.
Stewart: Erik van Rooyen (100-1, FanDuel) — Going back through Erik van Rooyen’s career, you see a common thread when it comes to success: EVR loves long venues that require low scoring to win. Van Rooyen has won the World Wide Technology Championship at Tiger’s course in Cabo and the Barracuda in Tahoe. Throw in a couple of second place finishes at Myrtle Beach, Chapultepec, Mexico, and the CJ Cup a month ago, and you begin to believe my point. An incredible long iron player and driver of the golf ball, Erik can capture the Canadian crown along with a triple-digit payday.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jake Knapp (90-1, BetRivers) — Like Pendrith, Knapp has experience at TPC Toronto, finishing third in that 2019 Canadian Open event. And his elite distance and improved iron play will lead to a bunch of birdie chances here, which is all we can ask for.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jake Knapp (90-1, BetRivers) — A driver-heavy potential birdie fest? That sounds like Knapp time to me. A little concerning that he’s coming off two missed cuts and has just one top 30 in his last six starts, but that did come at other driver intensive course at the Houston Open.
Lack: Alex Smalley (66-1, BetMGM) — Alex Smalley’s combination of long and straight off the tee and rock-solid long iron approach play should pay massive dividends at TPC Toronto. His prior success at long iron intensive golf courses such as Memorial Park and Vidanta Vallarta certainly proves that he is up for the challenge this week at the Doug Carrick design.
RBC Canadian Open picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Ludvig Aberg (12-1, Bet365) — One hot round at the Memorial, but that’s not enough to show us he has his game in a place where he can beat a full field right now.
Mayo: Shane Lowry (22-1, FanDuel) — Save it for next week when that accuracy will matter more.
Gdula: Sam Burns (30-1, FanDuel) — It’s tough to get excited about a favorite outside the top 100 in SG/approach the last six months. Burns is doing everything with the putter right now.
Stewart: Shane Lowry (22-1, FanDuel) — I bet Shane Lowry on golf courses like Bay Hill and Muirfield Village. Lowry’s ball-striking and around-the-green acumen make him a great candidate for a top 10 next week at Oakmont. To win at TPC Toronto, Shane will need 20-plus sub-par scores. With the current state of his putter and the look ahead to the U.S. Open, I’ll wait a week for this major champion.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (22-1, FanDuel) — Ditto what Keith said above. Shane’s been close, but I don’t think this is the course fit for him.
Powers, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (22-1, FanDuel) — Lowry hit it great at Memorial but faded out of contention on the weekend. His mind will be fully on Oakmont this week.
Lack: Shane Lowry (22-1, FanDuel) — This is an awfully low price to pay on a player that is still four-plus years removed from his last victory on the PGA Tour. Shane Lowry is a great approach player, but his lack of distance off the tee and putting skill could still cause problems for him at TPC Toronto. To fire on a player at this short of a price, I need to be fully all in on the course fit, and that is not the case with Lowry this week.
RBC Canadian Open picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Cam Young (+100) over Wyndham Clark (DraftKings) — Wyndham hasn’t shown us much this year and seems to be frustrated more times than not on the course. I think the past U.S. Open champion will be looking forward to next week. Cam, on the other hand, showed some serious grit getting through the qualifier in that stacked leader board in Ohio, and that’s the type of confidence-booster he might need to get over the finish line.
Mayo: Keith Mitchell (-110) over Mackenzie Hughes (Coolbet) — A market where Mitchell may not be penalized for an awful Sunday? Sign me up. TPC Toronto appears like it will lean bombers and ball-striking over short game and putting for the most part, and this matchup is a direct clash of those things.
Gdula: Alex Smalley (-110) over Kurt Kitayama (FanDuel) — Smalley's irons have been inconsistent of late, but he does enough elsewhere to make up for it when he has down weeks. Kitayama, meanwhile, has shown some gains with the putter recently, though the long-term data is less flattering, and his irons have started to fluctuate, as well. Smalley just seems like the more well-rounded golfer between the two, suiting him well for a matchup.
Stewart: Harry Hall (+100) over Sungjae Im (BetMGM) — Sungjae Im is ranked 119th in this field on approach. Im hasn’t gained with his irons since the Masters. At the Memorial, you can hang in there when the course is extremely hard and no one can score. This week, you need birdie opportunities, and how can you create 25-plus of them without any consistent proximity to the hole? Conversely, Harry Hall’s ball-striking has been sensational. Complemented by a fantastic flat stick, Hall has the exact skill set I’m looking for in Osprey Valley.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Johnny Keefer (-120) over Max Homa (DraftKings) — This is a very curious line. Homa would be a popular public pick by name with him finding his game a bit over the past few months. Still, oddsmakers make him an underdog to someone playing his third-ever PGA Tour start. Keefer’s been hot on the Korn Ferry Tour, and this course is very akin to a KFT setup ... just go out and bomb it and make a bunch of birdies. I’ll go with the hot hand and fade Homa, whose vibes seem to be pretty low after that missed opportunity at a U.S. Open start.
Powers, Golf Digest: Niklas Norgaard (-110) over Davis Riley (DraftKings) — If this course is going to be a bombfest, you got to have some sort of action on Niklas Norgaard, the second-longest hitter on tour. The Dane has missed five of his last seven cuts, but the two cuts he made he finished T-33 at the CJ Cup, a bomber’s paradise, and T-5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, which was less than one month ago. He should have a significant distance advantage over Riley here.
Lack: Sam Burns (-140) over Harry Hall (DraftKings) — Both Sam Burns and Harry Hall are two of the best putters in this field, but Burns is still a higher class of player, and the market reflects this. Burns is also coming off his best approach performance in months last week, and I’m hopeful he can carry on that momentum with his irons this week in Canada.
Matchup Results from the Memorial Tournament: Lack: 1 for 1 (Schauffele (-120) over Thomas); Mayo: PUSH (Novak +105) over Homa); Tour coach: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 12-5-2 (up 5.31 units); Hennessey: 12-9-1 (up 1.93 units); Powers: 12-10-0 (up 1.9 units); Lack: 11-9-1 (up 1.67 units); Stewart: 9-13-0 (down 4.45 units); Gdula: 7-14-1 (down 7.99 units); Mayo: 7-13-1 (down 6.19 units)
RBC Canadian Open picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Luke Clanton (+450, BetRivers) — The kid has already done such impressive stuff on the PGA Tour, and in a weaker field, he will continue to deliver at a high level.
Mayo: Taylor Pendrith (+300, FanDuel) — Pendrith has likely played this course more than anyone in the field and enters with back-to-back weeks of almost +10 SG/tee-to-green performances against stacked fields at the PGA Championship and Memorial. He was actually the only player who bested Scottie in approach play last week.
Gdula: Keith Mitchell (+400, FanDuel) — Mitchell is fourth in strokes-gained average among the whole field over the last six months and has the distance and ball-striking to contend.
Stewart: Luke Clanton (+450, BetRivers) — Luke Clanton earned his PGA Tour card by playing in actual tour events. The No. 1 amateur player in the world, Clanton has four top 10s on the PGA Tour since last June. With college behind him, I wouldn’t be surprised if Clanton set his sights on winning this week. I’ll happily take the odds and the 10 places on a guy who only has eight names in front of him on the outright betting board in his first professional tournament.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Erik van Rooyen (+800, FanDuel) — EVR just lit up the Columbus, Ohio U.S. Open qualifier, shooting 13-under over 36 holes to earn medalist honors by five shots. He’s more than capable of firing a ton more birdies where that came from and will be a threat to win.
Powers, Golf Digest: Isaiah Salinda (+1200, BetRivers) — Any time I see a course described as a bomber’s paradise, I’m taking my shot with Salinda, who is 12th on tour in SG/off-the-tee and 17th in driving distance. At this point, I should be taking easy ones with my 0-22 record, but another deep shot it is.
Lack: Ricky Castillo (+800, FanDuel) — Ricky Castillo is a young player with a lot of potential, and while I’m not quite sold yet on his ability to win, I love this number on a top 10. Castillo ranks top 25 in this field in overall off the tee play, carry distance, overall approach play and middle to long iron proximity, per BetSperts.com, and he also boasts a top-five finish at one of my favorite comp courses, TPC Craig Ranch.
Top-10 results from the Memorial Tournament: Everybody: 0 for 1.
Top-10 results from this season: Lack: 8 for 22 (up 16.3 units); Swing coach: 5 for 19 (up 10.8 units); Gdula: 7 for 22 (up 9 units); Mayo: 3 for 21 (up 1.33 units); Stewart: 7 for 22 (up 4.1 units); Hennessey: 3 for 22 (down 9 units); Powers: 0 for 22 (down 22 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
