| Betting Analysis
John Deere Classic picks 2025: Why Denny McCarthy will pick up a long overdue win
Our anonymous tour coach has been red hot since joining the panel, though the haters will tell you that his three winners this year have been the favorites to win. That was very much not the case at the Rocket Classic, where he correctly selected Aldrich Potgieter at 125-1 (!) in our longshots section. Talk about a mega bomb.
Can he go back-to-back? A couple of our other panelists who made the same selection as him this week at the John Deere Classic certainly hope so. This tournament is as wide open as ever, but a few of our experts have honed in on one of the elite putters in the sport to claim the title at TPC Deere Run.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of TPC Deere Run, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 John Deere Classic:
John Deere Classic picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the Week: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — Denny’s course history—two T-6s and a T-7 the past three years—is as good as it gets without a win. He just finished 12th at the Travelers, an elevated event, which is a similar course with less-than-driver holes and a birdie-fest. And McCarthy has proven over the past five years he’s one of the best putters in the world. I’ll take my chances of him finding the winner’s circle.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Michael Kim (50-1, BetMGM) — My guy has been trending all year, and now he’s back to the site of his victory. He talked about his game feeling great on social media after last week, which is all I need to hear to back him at TPC Deere Run.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Jason Day (25-1, FanDuel) — Day’s statistical ceiling is higher than anyone else’s in the field over his last 50 rounds, and we’ve seen him flirt with the top of the leaderboard in much tougher fields than this one of late. He’s one of the better ball-strikers in the field from under 150 yards, which is a key range this week at TPC Deere Run, too.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — The top putter on the PGA Tour has gained an average of 10 strokes on the field over the past three years at the John Deere Classic. A quiet T-12 at the Travelers is a solid comp result. Making sub-par scores requires holing putts, and Denny is not just one of the best at TPC Deere Run, he’s one of the best in the world at converting birdie opportunities. The challenging topography at TPC Deere Run favors the best scramblers, and there’s no doubt Denny is one of them.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Bud Cauley (40-1, FanDuel) — A positional course like TPC Deere Run is Bud Cauley’s bread and butter. He’s top 25 in this field in Good Drives Gained and fourth in SG/approach. He’s also near the top in par-4 and par-5 scoring and has three top-20 finishes at TPC Deere Run, so I like Cauley’s chances to getting his first win.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Michael Thorbjornsen (30-1, FanDuel) — When you’re as cold as I am, you become the biggest sucker ever. Thorbjornsen is almost too popular this week, which has cratered his number. But I’m not going to miss out on this young stud’s possible first win. With a T-17 and a T-2 at the John Deere in two starts, plus last week’s impressive tee-to-green performance, this might just be the perfect time to cash in. Even if the whole world is on it, too.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — If there is ever a golf course for Denny McCarthy to break through and notch his first PGA Tour victory, this would be the one. McCarthy has three consecutive top-10 finishes at TPC Deere Run, and his elite upside with the flat stick and rock-solid wedge play make him a perfect fit for the D.A. Weibring design.
Past results: We have a BIG winner! Our Anonymous Tour Coach hit on Aldrich Potgieter at 125-1 (!!) to win the Rocket Classic. That’s his fourth winner this season and by far his biggest odds. As a group, we now have 10 individual victories in 2025.
John Deere Classic picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Cameron Champ (80-1, FanDuel) — Champ is streaky, but he’s coming off a top 10 and a top 20—and his length will make reaching these par 5s easy, which is a big advantage here despite shorter hitters winning here.
Mayo: Sami Valimaki (100-1, FanDuel) — It’s not unusual for the Wacky Finn to get a spike putting week, which will lead to him being near the top of the leader board. He can rack up birdies in bunches, and though he could miss the cut by a mile, he could absolutely win this week.
Gdula: Matt McCarty (75-1, FanDuel) — McCarty rates out as a good course fit despite having not played here in the past. He’s an accurate driver, a great putter and he’s on the uptick with his irons in recent PGA events.
Stewart: Chris Gotterup (40-1, BetRivers) — Back in 2022, Chris Gotterup finished fourth at the John Deere Classic. This year, Gotterup comes into the John Deere having gained positively off the tee and on approach in five straight starts. The short game is solid, and his putter went positive at the Rocket Classic for the first time in a couple of months. Gotterup’s tee game can dominate on a tighter fairway venue like Deere Run. Despite the putter, Chris is ranked third in par-4 scoring and 15th in Birdie or Better Percentage. Unlike a bunch of guys in this field, he also has a PGA Tour win, and this week it is time for No. 2.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Andrew Putnam (80-1, FanDuel) — Putnam was in the mix last week, and this is an even better setup for him. He fits the mold for TPC Deere Run—accurate off the tee, a strong approach player with a great short game and he can get a spike putting week.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sami Valimaki (100-1, FanDuel) — Last year, Valimaki went through a nine-event stretch in the summer where he missed seven cuts. One of the only two he made was here, finishing 12th. That tells me the place fits his eye even without his best stuff, and this week he should have his best stuff. Over his last seven starts the Big Fin has four finishes inside the top 20, including last week at the Rocket.
Lack: Lee Hodges (66-1, BetMGM) — I always am intrigued by Lee Hodges on bentgrass birdie-fests given his extreme upside with his wedges. We have seen Hodges get extremely hot before with his short irons and putter and win one of these events by multiple strokes, and I am expecting another strong performance this week in Illinois out of the former 3M Open champion.
John Deere Classic picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Jason Day (25-1, FanDuel) — I think his sights are set overseas with the next couple of weeks and his game trending up. I think this is a good chance to go against one of the favorites and make some money.
Mayo: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — You’re getting terrible odds on someone who’s never won before. Pass.
Gdula: Michael Thorbjornsen (30-1, FanDuel) — I understand the hype, but the number has gotten too short compared to other golfers with better long-term samples.
Stewart: Si Woo Kim (30-1, DraftKings) — Si Woo Kim has the ball-striking and short game to play well at the John Deere Classic, but his putter is a significant problem. In his past three starts, Kim has lost an average of four strokes per event to the field. Even worse, in three starts at TPC Deere Run, Si Woo has two missed cuts and posted a WD. With no weekends at the John Deere Classic in his career, I think I’ll pass on Kim until he gains a little confidence back on the greens.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Michael Thorbjornsen (30-1, FanDuel) — I’m with Gdula ... these odds are out of hand for an event that has seen the average odds of winners be around 60-1. There’s too much variance with the John Deere to pay up at this price, in my opinion.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (16-1, FanDuel) — Ben Griffin is having an incredible year and needs to keep the pedal down to remain in the Ryder Cup conversation, but the solo favorite to win? At the John Deere? This event is far too wide open to bet a one-time (individual) tour winner at 16-1.
Lack: Jason Day (25-1, FanDuel) — Jason Day has had a solid season, and he has certainly had a few nice performances at the John Deere Classic, yet 25-1 is a hefty price to pay for a player who has not won on the PGA Tour in two plus years. While Day is certainly one of the greatest talents in the field, this is not typically an event where I am overly interested in investing too heavily on players in the 20-1 range, given its high amount of putting variance.
John Deere Classic picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Keith Mitchell (-120) over Sam Stevens (Bet365) — Mitchell has proven his ability to go super low all year, it’s just a matter of putting it together for four holes. His birdie-making ability is a difference-maker over Stevens here. The former Georgia Bulldog keeps putting in great work with Scott Hamilton, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he contends again this week.
Mayo: Davis Thompson (+110) over Jason Day (Coolbet) — I will gladly back the defending champion at plus money with his irons being back to hot fire.
Gdula: Denny McCarthy (-110) over J.T. Poston (FanDuel) — Both guys have played really well here in the past, but it’s McCarthy who is the better long-term player with a big putting advantage.
Stewart: Mark Hubbard (-125) over Rickie Fowler (Bet365) — Rickie Fowler missed the cut at the Rocket Classic. Fowler has lost strokes to the field in his last two starts, and you can’t attribute it to just one weakness. The issues keep shifting, and his scores keep climbing. Mark Hubbard finished T-13 in Detroit and has a strong course history at TPC Deere Run with two top-13 results in the past three years. Hubbard has gained strokes on the field in his past six starts. I’ll take the trend in this matchup and most likely head to the window after 36 holes.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Bud Cauley (-120) over Ryan Gerard (Bet365) — I explained why I like Cauley above. Gerard is a favorite first-round leader play of mine, but he doesn’t make enough birdies to rate out well at TPC Deere Run—he’s near the bottom of this field in Birdie or Better Percentage and is a below average wedge player.
Powers, Golf Digest: Bud Cauley (-125) over Mark Hubbard (BetMGM) — Both guys have solid histories at John Deere but Cauley has been the far more consistent player this season.
Lack: Lucas Glover (-110) over Michael Kim (BetOnline) — Lucas Glover is one of my favorite bets on the board this week, and I will gladly take him to take down another former champion at the John Deere Classic in Michael Kim. Glover is a far more accurate driver than Kim, and a considerably better wedge player as well, which certainly gives him the edge from a course-fit perspective.
Matchup Results from the Rocket Classic: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Hall (-105) over Thompson); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Hall (+105) over S.W. Kim); Gdula: PUSH (Matsuyama (-115) over Hall); Tour coach: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 13-8-2 (up 3.31 units); Powers: 14-12-0 (up 1.72 units); Lack: 13-11-1 (up 1.15 units); Hennessey: 12-13-1 (down 2.07 units); Stewart: 11-14-1 (down 3.5 units); Mayo: 9-14-2 (down 5.23 units); Gdula: 8-16-2 (down 9.08 units)
John Deere Classic picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Ben Griffin (+200, FanDuel) — The books need to give Griffin a little more credit. He’s playing like one of the best players in the world, and you’re getting 2-to-1 on a guy who hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his past six starts. In a weaker field and somewhere where he contended last year, this is a great bet.
Mayo: Davis Thompson (+400, Bet365) — The path to finding the top of the leader board is matching his improved ball-striking with a decent putter. What better spot to do that than where he won last year?
Gdula: Bud Cauley (+400, FanDuel) — Cauley is due for putting regression and is a top-five iron player in the field over the last six months, per datagolf. He hasn’t played the course much in recent years but has a string of three top 20s prior to coming back to a T-61 a year ago.
Stewart: Jake Knapp (+400, FanDuel) — Jake Knapp had a great opportunity to make it into that playoff on Sunday or win prior. Knapp gained strokes in all four major categories, including six strokes off the tee. Only Cam Champ was better. Jake’s edge with the driver will be an even bigger advantage at TPC Deere Run. Over the past two years, an average of 3.5 players have finished inside the top 10 at both the Rocket and the John Deere. Looking at last week’s leader board, Jake has a strong chance to be one of the players who will continue that trend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (+550, Bet365) — Chasing a Keith Mitchell win might be fool’s gold, but he’s a top 10 player in this field for SG/approach and Birdie or Better percentage, so it won't be a surprise when he’s near the top of the leader board. The only question is if he can do that for four rounds.
Powers, Golf Digest: Kristoffer Ventura (+1200, BetRivers) — Ventura had a spike week tee-to-green in Detroit but a poor short game performance saw him finish 34th. Between there and Colonial, where he finished in the top 20, he’s had some success this year at courses that demand solid driving and wedge play like TPC Deere run does.
Lack: Adam Svensson (+1400, FanDuel) — Adam Svensson has had a highly disappointing season, but if there is ever a golf course to bring out his best stuff, it’s TPC Deere Run. The Canadian has three top-25 finishes in four appearances at TPC Deere Run, and his accuracy off the tee and rock solid short to middle iron play will continue to pay dividends in Silvis.
Top-10 results from the Rocket Classic: Gdula: 1 for 1 (Matt Fitzpatrick +400); Tour coach: 1 for 1 (Max Greyserman +400); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Gdula: 9 for 26 (up 14.3 units); Lack: 8 for 26 (up 12.3 units); Tour coach: 6 for 23 (up 11.8 units); Stewart: 7 for 26 (up 0.1 units); Mayo: 3 for 26 (down 1.33 units); Hennessey: 4 for 25 (down 3 units); Powers: 0 for 26 (down 26 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.