The Genesis Invitational

Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)



    NATIONAL POLICY

    How could the Trump presidency affect golf?

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    January 31, 2025

    President Donald Trump, a man who loves golf, was reelected on a platform that calls for a series of substantial changes to policies that will have a broad impact on the economy. Three of them could help or hurt the golf industry depending on how they’re implemented. They relate to immigration, environmental regulation and trade.

    While his proposals are meant for the country writ large, across industries and geographies, they could affect countries that export towels and tee gifts as much as technology and t-shirts.

    Some insiders said Trump, who played golf many weekends in his first term at golf clubs he owns in the United States, would be unlikely to push proposals that could affect his own economic interests. There's also an expectation that Trump’s Department of Justice will greenlight the Saudi investment necessary for a deal between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, so fans could see the best players competing against each other more regularly. But there are always unintended consequences from new legislation.

    “President Trump, as golfer-in-chief and owner of a network of golf properties, isn’t likely to support policies that would unfairly target the golf industry,” said Greg Nathan, president and chief executive of the National Golf Foundation. “However, while golf is a $100 billion industry in the U.S., I expect that policies affecting immigration, tariffs, taxes, and the environment will be driven by presidential agenda priorities where golf is clearly the tail and not the dog.”

    Here’s a look at how some of Trump’s key campaign promises could affect the golf industry, with the caveat that these are early days. Many of these proposals need to be voted on by Congress and could take months or longer to implement.

    Environmental regulation

    Superintendents are stewards of the courses they maintain. They have long balanced the application of chemicals against their costs and the environmental regulations that govern their use.

    What impact would looser environmental regulations have on how superintendents maintain courses?

    “Golf course superintendents are professional land managers who are highly trained in the responsible use of all inputs,” said Chava McKeel, director of government affairs at the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America. “The golf industry will continue to responsibly manage available resources when maintaining golf courses. 

    Where regulation changes may help the golf community is in permitting. The process wherever the federal government has jurisdiction is likely to be sped up.

    “If you’re building a new facility, or you’re building a new energy production plant, or you’re building housing that we desperately need—the long pole in the tent is not building materials, it’s not labor, it’s permitting,” said Jay Clayton, who was the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission in the first Trump administration and has been nominated to be the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York in this administration. “And that’s true in the golf construction business as well.”

    “The Trump administration will be focused on reducing permitting time,” he said. “That doesn’t mean less protection. Currently it just takes an absurd amount of time in the electronic age to receive a yes or no answer.”

    Now, the 7th green isn’t about to be moved into the wetlands to create a more challenging angle into the pin. That type of permitting is overseen by local government—and a course’s watchful neighbors. But on larger scale projects—say the construction of a new plant to make turf fertilizer—the permitting process could go faster and be less expensive.

    Immigration

    Trump has made clear that he wants to cut down on illegal border crossings and deport undocumented immigrants. His immigration reform also includes systems to verify who can work in the U.S. legally and for how long.

    These proposals have the potential to impact hiring in the golf industry. “Immigration laws affect golf’s labor force, especially in the turf maintenance area,” Nathan said.

    Most seasonal workers on the maintenance staff enter the country through the H-2A program, which gives temporary visas to agricultural workers, or the H-2B program, which gives temporary visas to non-agricultural workers, which could include summer staff in the clubhouse.

    These are well-established programs, and the visas can be renewed and last up to a year at a time.

    There are at least two possible changes to immigration policy that could impact golf course hiring.

    The prospect of tighter enforcement of immigration laws could deter first-time migrant workers from coming to the United States. The deterrence affect is already being seen at the United States-Mexico border, where border crossings have been reduced. The threat of tighter enforcement and deportation could have a dampening affect on legal migrants’ desire to work in the U.S.

    A second possible wrinkle is these programs could be changed. While this may seem unlikely—the United States agricultural economy is reliant on migrant labor— there is a provision in the program stating that migrants can only be given the jobs “if U.S. workers are not available”.

    Steve Bannon, a bulwark of the MAGA movement and former Trump advisor, sees many types of visas hurting U.S. workers. It’s just not yet clear what sway he will have over policy.

    McKeel said the limit of 66,000 H-2B visas per year does not meet the need for temporary workers. Between 2019 and 2022 requests from golf courses for these visas rose 51 percent.

    The GCSAA has petitioned to increase that cap, and this year, the Department of Homeland Security has agreed to increase the number of H-2B visas, she said.

    Trade

    Tariffs are one mechanism used to control the flow and price of goods, but they’re the one that has taken on an outsize role in the international trade debate.

    A tariff is simply a tax. It works like a sales tax that gets applied at the golf shop counter more than an income tax that reduces the money you take home in your paycheck. If a country or certain goods from a country are subject to a tariff, those goods could potentially become more expensive.

    The impact of that tariff on the end consumer is more complicated.

    Here’s an example. If a country exports a piece of golf apparel for $10, that’s what the importer in the United States would pay. That good would then get marked up through the supply chain and might eventually be sold to a consumer for $25.

    President Trump has threatened to impose a tariff of 60 percent on goods imported from China. So under that same scenario, the manufacturer of that apparel would still get $10 for the garment, but the importer will pay the $6 tax. Now his base price is $16 so that same garment might now cost $31 with the same percentage markup. That could be a price that consumers might not want to pay.

    This is the simple scenario that assumes that exporters and importers don’t change their pricing structure. But without changing their pricing, another country that isn’t subject to the same tariffs could step in and make the good cheaper – or it could even make in the United States.

    A different but also plausible scenario is that the existing trading partners adjust their pricing to retain the business they have. In this scenario, that same piece of golf apparel might arrive at a United States port for $8, instead of $10. When the same 60 percent tariff is applied, it costs the importer $12.80. His end client could then still sell it for $25. Both parties make a smaller profit but they retain their business relationships.

    “The fear of tariffs and the effect on the end consumer in most cases has proven to be way overblown,” Clayton said. “Current manufacturers wanting to hold onto market share will take a hit short term and lower their prices. This doesn’t happen overnight, but it happens much faster than people expect.”

    Countries like China that subsidize labor prices so goods can be made cheaply for export—and their citizens can be employed—have every incentive to reduce their prices for exports. “You’re already in a mindset where you’re subsidizing labor and capital to keep your people employed,” Clayton said. “So, it’s not a big step to cut prices. You’re already subsidizing the costs.”

    Nathan of the National Golf Foundation is optimistic for the golf industry over the next four years. “It would be natural for golf-related businesses to believe that the Trump presidency is good for them,” he said. “He’s highly engaged in the sport and invested in the business himself.”