Gambling Strategy
10 players who will win you money early in 2025
The start of the 2024 PGA Tour season was wild from a betting perspective. To quickly put it in perspective, if you bet just $50 on each outright winner over the first six weeks, you would have won over $60,000!
Six of the first nine winners in 2024 held pre-tournament odds over 100-1. You can bet the NFL playoffs all January and never reach those odds. That’s why golf betting is so much fun. I call it the “four-day lottery.” What other sport gives you the chance to win triple digit odds every week? For those playing the conservative strokes gained route, Q1 was a bloodbath on betting budgets.
As we look ahead to 2025, will that trend continue, or will the favorites fire back and get the season started in a more conventional manner? I believe it will be a little of both. I realize more longshots will win, but target the top middle-tier movers and you’ll cash tickets, destroy your major pools and collect on those One & Dones.
Here are my early season stars sure to bring home some bank before Bay Hill.
Al Chang/ISI Photos
10. Since the John Deere Classic in July, Doug Ghim has gained an average of 3.5 strokes total per event. We know the putter IS an issue, but he finished the fall gaining strokes with his flatstick in three straight tournaments. Similar to Scottie, if he has an even an average putting week, Ghim will grab you some green especially in some of these early season tee-to-green heavy tournaments.
David Cannon
9. The only player to beat Rasmus Hojgaard on the 2024 DP World Tour points list was Rory McIlroy! Hojgaard competed in 23 DP World Tour events and was essentially the best full-time player on that tour. Unlike a majority of rookies, Rasmus has a twin brother (Nicolai) who was a rookie on the PGA Tour last year. As such, Rasmus can continue his fine play from the fall (six top 20s and a win in nine starts) without having to worry about where to go and what to do with a brother as his 2025 tour guide.
🗞️ Begin with a budget. We all get excited when the PGA TOUR season starts. Fantasy Football just ended and now golf captures our attention. Make sure you start each week with a betting budget. Golf is a long season, and we want to ensure we have plenty of entertainment funds in place once we hit the Masters!
Ross Kinnaird
8. Tommy Fleetwood is a late Q1 play. Let the flowing locks do his thing over in Dubai before he makes his annual migration to the tour in February. Too talented not to win at some point, Fleetwood fits so many venues in mid-February on. With a strong course history at Riviera and PGA National, don’t be surprised if the books keep cutting his number as we get closer to Bay Hill and The Players.
Lintao Zhang
7. In many ways, the best way to cash a sizeable outright ticket is to hit on a player’s first win. 2023 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Eric Cole had a roller-coaster season in 2024. The two highs came at the start and the fall finish. Cole’s complete wedge game and prolific putter make him a great fit across the West Coast and early Florida. A strong finish to 2024 (T-16, MC, T-6, T-15) and solid course history gives me every inclination he’ll attack early ’25 with the same momentum.
🗞️ Don’t forget to live bet. Golf betting does not end once the tournament begins. Keep following the betting odds as the event progresses and look for head-to-head and placement (top-10, top-20s, etc.) opportunities. Not all outrights are destined for greatness, and a savvy weekend card can save a bunch of money.
Yong Teck Lim
6. For some reason, Sungjae Im hit the mainland past January and lost his iron game. A Q1 mystery in 2024, Im woke up after the Masters and finished the FedEx Cup season in seventh place. From the Masters until the Hero, Sungjae racked up 12 top-15 results in 16 starts! Sungjae has history out west, and I look for a huge bounce-back from him this January and February.
Jared C. Tilton
5. There’s one Max who really catches my attention heading into 2025, and that’s Max Greyserman. After a very strong showing at the U.S. Open, Greyserman became the preeminent putter on the PGA Tour. Max had three runner-up finishes in his last 10 official starts of the year. A solid ball-striker, Greyserman possesses a reliable skill set, and with so many elite events on the schedule should carry some value on the betting board.
🗞️ Stay away from silly props. Hole-in-ones, winning margin, balls in the water are ridiculous bets to predict. Save your money for H2Hs and placement props. Think of it this way, if it is a bet YOU would play in your weekend game then it makes sense. I doubt you ever bet on your chances to make a hole in one at the start of round…
Mike Mulholland
4. Did Aaron Rai catch your attention last summer? He sure caught ours. Byeong (Ben) Hun An hired the same putting coach as Rai. Both incredible ball-strikers, each needed help on the greens. We saw what happened to Aaron, and now An is in the same position heading into a stretch of events he has always played well at. Two years ago, Ben played on the Korn Ferry Tour. Last season, he finished 21st on the PGA Tour! Fourth at The Sentry and lost in a playoff at The Sony in 2024, this incredible ball-striker has serious upside. Ben is definitely one of those lower middle-tier guys I believe is about to make a serious jump.
David Jensen
3. “If you can’t beat ‘em, bet ‘em.” Robert MacIntyre got us twice last year. First in Canada, and then across the pond in his home Open. A member of the last European Ryder Cup team in Rome, MacIntyre has extra motivation to make this year’s squad. Bob brings a unique blend of ball-striking and putting skill. He finished the fall with seven straight top 25s. If he starts in Dubai, that might be even better as he will be quite ready for signature season in February.
🗞️ Stop chasing odds. Everyone loves positive moneyline values. Keep in mind, those odds are there for a reason. A positive number reflects a much smaller chance of an event happening. Keep your card diversified by balancing out those large outright odds with small calculated wagers across the weekend.
Pedro Salado
2. Collin Morikawa was one of the best … around-the-green players on the PGA Tour in 2024! Morikawa finished the season ranked 10th in SG/around the green. 2024 was a tale of two seasons for Collin. Starting at the Masters, Morikawa rattled off 13 straight top-25 results. A historically incredible iron player, Morikawa used his short game and putting to consistently contend. Collin’s iron game can’t go away forever and when it comes back to go along with his ’24 skill set, the wins will start piling up.
Kevin C. Cox
1. Starting the 2023 season, Justin Thomas was the eighth-ranked golfer in the world. Thomas took a turn for the worse in ’23 and spent last year climbing back. Some of last year was a roller-coaster, but the accurate iron play and wonderful wedges were back. Justin started strong in 2024 and earned signature status. The Q1 venues have always been happy havens for the terrific Thomas. Five of his 15 career wins have come in January, February and March. Take a quick look at his FedEx Fall, and he came out hot (T-2 and a third place). JT’s tee-to-green game is back, and many of these early venues are sites of his best putting history. If nothing else, did we mention it is a Ryder Cup year?
Honorable mention: There are a couple of familiar and not so familiar names that made it very close to this list. Max Homa and Will Zalatoris are both coming off below average campaigns in 2024. Watch for their return early on the calendar as they both play very well in California. Jordan Spieth just had wrist surgery. If he’s finally healthy, those Masters futures odds are something to keep an eye on. Austin Eckroat collected two wins in 2024 and has the game to go next level and win a signature event—similar to what Kurt Kitayama did in 2023 at the API. Both Eckroat and Kitayama have the strokes gained resumes guaranteed to grab extra attention this year.