FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2026: Why we believe in Sam Burns
We're a little disappointed the PGA Tour season is coming to an end—we've hit outright winners two of the past three weeks. The season's wrapping up just as we're getting hot! Speaking of hot, the FedEx St. Jude Championship takes place in steamy Memphis, where ball-striking is paramount for navigating the hard-to-hit fairways and avoiding the numerous water hazards.
Can our experts make it three winners in the past four weeks? We have some strong consensus bets below from the Golf Digest betting panel, which is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship:
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Sam Burns (22-1, DraftKings) — Much like Si Woo, if Burns can’t pick up a win in the playoffs, it’s going to feel like a waste of an excellent season. Southwind seems like the spot if it’s going to happen. Burns has played this course each of the past five years and never once lost strokes on approach—the one thing that usually holds him back. He was T-5 two years ago and lost to the Mexican Allen Iverson, Abe Ancer, in a playoff in 2021. He enters having gained off the tee and on approach in five straight starts, with three top-five finishes and no result worse than T-20.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Sam Burns (22-1, DraftKings) — If there was ever a venue built for Sam Burns’ 2026 season, TPC Southwind is the place. A fantastic Southern scorer, Burns has five career PGA Tour wins south of Fort Worth. Bermuda Burns is back, and the combination of his excellent iron play, driver acumen and tour-leading putting, Sam is poised to take home title No. 6.
Read The Line's Keith Stewart joins Pat Mayo's show to make their case for Sam Burns:
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Si Woo Kim (33-1, FanDuel) — Of all the players in the field this week without a win in 2026, only Tommy Fleetwood (1.43) has gained more strokes per round on average this season than Si Woo Kim (1.32). Si Woo has the second-best par 4 birdie rate in this field, which is key this week with the par 70 layout here at Southwind.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Hideki Matsuyama (29-1, DraftKings) — Everything’s lining up for Hideki to threaten for his first win since the 2025 Sentry. He enters off three top-10 finishes, and arrives at TPC Southwind, where he lifted the trophy in 2024. The irons have been scorching hot for Hideki, gaining more than 10 strokes across his past two events. And I loved that the putter really heated up over the weekend at Wyndham—gaining more than five strokes across the final two days.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Collin Morikawa (28-1, DraftKings) — The only thing holding Morikawa back in his last few starts has been his around-the-green play. Ideally, this being such an accuracy/ball-striking test, he’ll be able to separate enough with his ball-striking that he’ll just need to be mediocre with his short game to win this week. Having just been in Memphis on Monday and Tuesday, it’ll be plenty hot this week, so his body should be feeling good, too.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Collin Morikawa (28-1, DraftKings) — Collin Morikawa is an ideal fit for TPC Southwind given his accuracy off the tee and short to middle iron play. In six starts in Memphis, the two-time major winner has not finished worse than 26th, and he has actually putted very well at this golf course, too.
Past results: We have our SIXTH winner of 2026, and we just went back-to-back! Our newest panelist, Ryan Noonan, correctly selected Jackson Koivun at 36-1 to win the 3M Open, which was his fourth winner of the year. Then Steve Hennessey backed that up with a Michael Thorbjornsen pick at 41-1 to win the Rocket Classic for his third winner of the year. Let’s stay hot and finish the season strong!
Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (above) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Tom Kim (51-1, DraftKings) — Accuracy is a big plus here, and TK has it in spades. I was actually pretty shocked to see his betting number so deep on Monday morning. Since having to qualify for the U.S. Open, Kim has five top 20s in seven starts, along with a win and another pair of top fives, including last week.
Stewart: Tom Kim (51-1, DraftKings) — In 2022, Tom Kim won four starts after his first PGA Tour win at the Wyndham. Four starts following his fourth tour win at the Genesis Scottish Open, Kim will kill this field with accuracy. Sedgefield and Southwind are great comp courses. Tom’s success in Greensboro translates to this TPC. On a mission to make the tour Championship, Kim is going to keep scoring on these accuracy-driven venues.
Noonan: Alex Fitzpatrick (94-1, DraftKings) — I’m going back to Alex Fitzpatrick here after a terrible week on and around the greens in Greensboro held him back. We’ve seen bad short games rise up the leaderboard here in the past, and Alex’s tee-to-green game has been one of the surprise highlights of the 2026 season.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (85-1, BetOnline) — As Read The Line’s Joe Idone wrote in his power rankings column on Monday, these odds are disrespectful for the PGA champion. We’re getting a great price based on some not-so-great finishes lately, but he loves TPC Southwind—gaining more than 13 strokes across his last two starts at the venue.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jacob Bridgeman (94-1, DraftKings) — Not overly long, elite iron player, loves Bermuda? Look no further than Bridgeman, who has quietly finished T-28 or better in three consecutive starts and top-20'd here a year ago in his first go-round.
Lack: Aaron Rai (85-1, BetOnline) — Very similar to Morikawa, Aaron Rai’s combination of elite driving accuracy and short to middle iron play should pay dividends at TPC Southwind, and he is coming off a performance at the Wyndham where he gained three strokes on approach.
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2026: Miscellaneous prop
Mayo: Gary Woodland top-20 finish (+300, FanDuel) — Woodland’s been on a weird string of excellent top-10 results in tough fields or being the worst guy in the field. There seems to be relatively no rhyme or reason to which Woodland shows up that week. What we do know is: He’s one of the most accurate long hitters in the field, great with scoring clubs, and seems to vacillate between a scorching hot putter to one that’s sub-thermal. Seems like the perfect risk for a long shot.
Stewart: J.J. Spaun top-20 finish (+166, DraftKings) — Similar to our top 20 bet on Billy Ho last week at the Wyndham, Spaun makes sense at TPC Southwind. The 2025 US Open winner lost in a playoff here one year ago. An elite approach player, Spaun fits the St. Jude mold. Gaining on the field on seemingly every start tee-to-green, a misstep with the putter in Detroit won’t deviate J.J. from another great finish in Memphis!
Noonan: Jackson Koivun top-20 finish (+155, FanDuel) — Over his past 16 rounds, Koivun has gained 1 or more strokes tee-to-green in 75 percent of his rounds, which is the best rate in this field. Koivun has made 15 career starts on the PGA Tour, including his amateur days, and he's never been worse than 12th in total driving for the week. Think about that.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Russell Henley, first-round leader (40-1, DraftKings) — Henley’s the perfect fit for this course with the need for accuracy off the tee and elite approach play. Our Christopher Powers saw Henley working with his putting coach, Phil Kenyon, the past few days at TPC Southwind—and that could lead to a hot start in Round 1.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sam Burns finishing position 19th or better (-120, Bet365) — Burns has finished 19th or better in four of his last five starts, and those fields have all had a lot more than 70 players in them.
Lack: Justin Thomas top-20 finish (+115, DraftKings) — Justin Thomas already has two wins at TPC Southwind and is coming off his best driving performance of the season last week at the Wyndham Championship. His recent uptick in driving accuracy should pay dividends this week, and I comfortably expect him to finish in the top 20.
Misc. Prop Results from the Wyndham Championship: Noonan: 1 for 1 (Nico Echavarria top-20 finish +500); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Billy Horschel top-20 finish +445); Lack: 1 for 1 (Winning Score UNDER 261.5); Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1
Misc. Prop Results from the 2026 season: Noonan: 1 for 1 (up 5 units); Stewart: 1 for 1 (up 4.45 units); Lack: 1 for 1 (up 0.8 units); Mayo: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Hennessey: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit); Powers: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit)
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Si Woo Kim (-110) over Justin Thomas (Coolbet) — Si Woo has excelled in every betting market this year that isn’t “winning the tournament.” JT is starting to play better, but at a hardcore accuracy course, take the guy who hits all the fairways.
Stewart: Kurt Kitayama (+100) over Ben Griffin (Bet365) — Those who follow this column know what happened last week. Ben Griffin missed his second cut in as many starts and can’t seem to get his ball-striking in order. Fresh off a T-9 finish in 2025 at the St. Jude, Kurt Kitayama returns, gaining SG/total on the field in his last 10 starts. In a row.
Noonan: Russell Henley (-105) over Justin Thomas (BetMGM) — Henley keeps the ball in play, keeps bogeys off the scorecard, and is equipped to handle these bermudagrass green complexes. I’m surprised he’s never won here, though he does have multiple top-10 finishes. The market is over-inflating JT this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: JJ Spaun (-120) over Maverick McNealy (Bet365) — Spaun has a strong edge across SG/approach, SG/total, par-4 scoring at TPC Southwind stats compared to Maverick McNealy.
Powers, Golf Digest: Akshay Bhatia (-108) over Michael Brennan (DraftKings) — Will bank on the natural let down for Brennan after a career-changer last week. Also expecting an Akshay bounce back after a pair of missed cuts.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (+100) over Matt Fitzpatrick (BetOnline) — I’m surprised that Hideki Matsuyama is even money in this matchup the way that he is playing right now. The former Masters Champion has three top-seven finishes in a row, and has greatly improved his driving accuracy over the last month. Matt Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, is coming off a disappointing finish at the Open Championship, and has not played since.
Matchup Results from the Wyndham Championship: Powers: 1 for 1 (Spieth (+120) over English); Noonan: 1 for 1 (J. Smith (-105) over Bradley); Hennessey: PUSH (Thompson (-114) over J. Smith); Stewart: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 19-11-0 (up 6.34 units); Stewart: 16-9-3 (up 5.13 units); Noonan: 15-11-4 (up 2.46 units); Mayo: 15-13-2 (up 2.21 units); Lack: 16-12-2 (up 0.43 units); Hennessey: 12-15-3 (down 3.97 units)
FedEx St. Jude Championship picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Viktor Hovland (+300, FanDuel) — The recipe has been simple: Don’t blow it on the greens and contend to win. You have to go back to April to find the last time Hovland dropped strokes to the field on approach play. He’s even smoothed out the terrible driving dip he was going through at the beginning of the year. And his chipping? Not terrible lately, which is amazing for him. But his results are mimicking his putting efforts. In his past six starts, VIK has gained with the flat stick just twice: WIN/T-3. Lost in the four: CUT/T-13/CUT/CUT. The good news? He’s gained on the greens in each of his past four starts at Southwind, which includes a year ago after the green changes.
Stewart: Hideki Matsuyama (+250, FanDuel) — In his last five starts, Hideki Matsuyama has finished T-14, T-14, T-3, T-5 and T-7. That first T-14 takes us all the way back to the Travelers Championship. Matsuyama is the 2024 FedEx St. Jude winner and has not finished outside the top 20 in his last five starts at TPC Southwind as well.
Noonan: Viktor Hovland (+300, FanDuel) — Hovland’s ball-striking numbers this summer have returned to the elite tier after tinkering forced him into the wilderness for a while. Hovland is also a great putter on bermudagrass. It’s his best surface over the past 12 months (+0.35 strokes per round), and that rate holds over a 50+ round 3-year sample. He finished T-2 here back in 2024, nearly chasing down Hideki Matsuyama on the weekend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: JJ Spaun (+333, Bet365) — As I said in my matchup write-up, Spaun is top 10 in SG/approach, SG on par 4s and course history at TPC Southwind, where he finished runner-up last year. I don’t love the form and Bermuda putting splits enough to bet him outright, but a top-10 bet is a decent shout.
Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Young (+200, FanDuel) — Sure, Young tied for 61st last week, but that was all due to one of the more heinous putting weeks he’s ever had in his life. All the other numbers look like his usual self. He might just win this week.
Lack: Russell Henley (+340, FanDuel) — Russell Henley also fits the mold of an accurate driver of the ball, elite short to middle iron player, and great Bermuda putter. He finished 17th at this event last year and is coming off a quiet top 20 at the Rocket Classic.
Top-10 results from the Wyndham Championship: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 10 for 30 (up 39.55 units); Lack: 8 for 30 (up 11.1 units); Stewart: 7 for 30 (up 2.05 units); Noonan: 7 for 30 (down 0.1 units); Powers: 6 for 30 (down 0.75 units); Hennessey: 5 for 30 (down 10.6 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry's best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.