Did we just witness the shot of the year on the PGA Tour? Here's what the stats say

Scottie Scheffler has hit nearly 5,000 shots so far this season. But he may have just hit his best on Sunday at Caves Valley Golf Club.

“Can you believe what you just saw?!” was the call as NBC Sports’ Dan Hicks attempted to describe what might be the shot of the year on the PGA Tour.

Having started the final round of the BMW Championship four shots behind Robert MacIntyre, Scottie Scheffler was two shots ahead for most of the back nine. However, when the Scot birdied the par-5 16th hole and Scheffler failed to make a 4 himself, the pair headed to the penultimate hole at separated by just one shot.

It just so happened, that hole ranked the hardest on the course. The 225-yard par-3 17th was playing to an average of 3.60 on Sunday, with just three birdies versus 28 bogeys or worse. Only 8 of 46 players had found the green when the final duo stood on the tee.

MacIntyre, with the honor, narrowly missed the putting surface long. Scheffler then took aim and pulled his 5-iron left of the green. He would later admit he was aiming well away from the pin but pulled it even further left, knowing there was water bordered the right side of the green.

However, Scheffler ended in an awkward spot.

He was now 27 yards from the hole, below the green, in the rough, hitting over the shoulder of a hill, onto a downslope, with the water still in play immediately behind the hole.

Nine other players missed the green in this area on Sunday. Three of them made par, six made bogey or worse.

The stakes were high. The level of difficulty was similarly high.

Then came the moment. Scheffler took out his 60.5-degree lob wedge (yes, the extra half degree is important to the World No. 1) and sent the ball high onto the edge of the green. Then he waited. And waited.

In a scene similar to Tiger Woods at Augusta National in 2005, Scheffler’s ball trickled down the green, arriving at the edge of the hole some 14 seconds after impact, then toppling into the middle of the cup.

Ball game.

A birdie 2. MacIntyre managed his up-and-down but a signature Scheffler par on the 18th was enough for a two-shot victory, his fifth PGA Tour triumph of the season.

So just how good was the shot on 17?

Spoiler alert, it was good. Very, very good. In fact, the chip earned him 1.69 strokes gained around the green. To put that in context, cast your mind back to the 15th hole at Augusta on Sunday when Rory McIlroy whipped a 6-iron high, around the trees, nestling next to the hole. That shot only gained 1.01 shots.

Or perhaps you’d rather compare it to J.J. Spaun’s 65-foot, walk-off, U.S. Open-winning putt at Oakmont? A truly memorable moment and shot. Well, that putt gained 1.03 shots.

Scheffler’s short game is often underrated by many who are quick to point out his dominance from tee-to-green, or perhaps his vastly improved putting statistics. The fact remains, the 29-year-old owns one of the best short games in golf.

This season, Scheffler is second on the PGA Tour in Scrambling. He makes par or better 68.9 percent of the time he misses a green. And he doesn’t miss many greens.

Interestingly, he’s second also in scrambling from the rough where he has saved par or better 87 times from 128 attempts.

Perhaps the 17th hole at the BMW is the perfect encapsulation of how dangerous Scheffler’s short game can be. He actually missed the green on this hole in each of the four rounds, yet played the hole in one under par.

For the week, he gained 2.78 shots around-the-green on the 17th alone, the third most of any player on a hole for the week this season.

As I mentioned previously, Scheffler has hit nearly 5,000 shots on the PGA Tour this season: 4,904 to be specific. When you win five times, including two majors, it’s safe to say the majority of these shots are good. Well, Scheffler’s chip at Caves Valley is statistically the second best shot he’s hit all year. Only his hole-out, fairway bunker shot in the opening round of the WM Phoenix Open gained more shots (1.91).

However, his BMW Championship chip came in the final round, on the penultimate hole, with a one-shot lead.

Again, I must stress. This wasn’t a fluke. Scheffler would tell the media after his round that he had actually practiced this shot earlier in the week, knowing that the final-round pin position was likely to be in the back-right of the green.

When the ball dropped, Scheffler turned to high-five his caddie, Michael Cromie. His regular caddie, Ted Scott, was tending to a family matter and couldn’t loop for his boss in Maryland. When they started working together, Scott would wager with his boss that he couldn’t hole out from off the green 10 times in a season. This was Scheffler’s 16th hole out this season.
In fact, he’s holed out more than 10 times in each of his six PGA Tour seasons so far. I can’t confirm whether Scott will continue to make the wager.

Ultimately, what shot will be considered the shot of the year in 2025 is subjective. It can’t be truly be measured with statistics. Strokes gained doesn’t account for pressure or context.

However, it would be easy to make the case that this is the best shot Scottie Scheffler has hit in 2025. Possibly, the best shot anyone has hit.