Betting Analysis
Cognizant Classic picks 2025: Is Daniel Berger ready to win again?
The tree that knocked Brian Campbell's ball back into play during last week's Mexico Open playoff had all sorts of gambling ramifications. Everybody and their mother was on the long-hitting Aldrick Potgieter, including our anonymous swing coach, who had a too-good-to-be-true 70-1 ticket go up in flames in stunning fashion.
But that's golf (gambling). The highs and lows are unlike any other sport, and they last over the course of four days. It's not for the faint of heart. Sickos like us are already back for more as the PGA Tour begins its Florida Swing, naturally.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of PGA National, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Cognizant Classic:
Cognizant Classic picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Sepp Straka (28-1, FanDuel) — This is a true ball-striker's test, and Straka has proven he’s among the elite on the tour this year—so this an attractive number. He’s a former winner at PGA National, and if it gets windy this week, he’ll be licking his chops even more.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Taylor Pendrith (30-1, Bet365) — The Canadian has enough distance to beat up the par 5s at PGA National. We just need him to flip the putter back to normal and that’s when he’ll find himself in contention.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Russell Henley (25-1, FanDuel) — Henley is the only golfer to rank top 15 in strokes-gained/ball-striking and strokes-gained/short game over his last 50 rounds, via datagolf, among this week’s field. He’s a great Bermuda putter and a super accurate driver. He won here in 2014 and has some of the best course form. He stands out among the favorites this week.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Denny McCarthy (40-1, FanDuel) — Much more than a Bermudagrass specialist, Denny McCarthy can score on all surfaces with a putter. A solid start to the year, McCarthy finished 16th at the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open. Those are two very different venues. Toss in a top five at Torrey for the Genesis Invitational and his game is incredibly well-rounded at the moment. A resident of southeast Florida, this is a winning fit for the tour’s true flat-stick aficionado.
Watch the below video as PGA professional Keith Stewart breaks down his thoughts on the Cognizant Classic. Watch his full video of betting analysis with Run Pure Sports' Matthew Wiley here.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Daniel Berger (25-1, DraftKings) — I’ve had this bet queued up for weeks. Berger’s No. 1 in SG/total at PGA National over a long sample size, and his game is officially back. I love the way he struck the ball at TPC Scottsdale, and that iron play and off-the-tee game will lead to success at a venue where he’s thrived over the years. That low ball flight can pierce through the Florida winds, and I think there’s a great chance all of his knocks on the door lead to a statement win this week.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Cameron Young (45-1, DraftKings) — Trust me, I hate this bet way more than you do. But the fact is Young has popped in this area of the country quite often in the past, as recently as last year when he finished in the top five in this event and then finished runner-up at Valspar a few weeks later. In a weak field, this is a great number with his upside. Now, commence missing every putt inside of 10 feet and making me want to jump off a roof, Cameron.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Russell Henley (25-1, FanDuel) — I’ve done this song and dance with Russell Henley in the column before, and it always ends in sadness. Yet in one of the weaker fields that Henley will face all season, on a golf course that fits his skill-set to a tee, this is actually a fair number on who my numbers suggest is the class of the field. I continue to be dogged believer in the middle iron upside, and PGA National accentuates that skill more than nearly any other track on Tour.
Past results: We are on the board in 2025! Congrats to Keith Stewart and Stephen Hennessey, who correctly predicted Ludvig Aberg’s Genesis Invitational win at 25-1. This marks the first victory for Stewart on this panel, and hopefully the first of many.
Cognizant Classic picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Lucas Glover (60-1, FanDuel) — Lucas plays great in the wind with his ability to flight and shots, and he’s hitting the ball great recently. He’s had a few nice finishes here in the past, and he’ll know this is another great chance for him.
Mayo: Nicolai Hojgaard (55-1, FanDuel) — His tee-to-green play has been off the charts in his past two PGA Tour starts, highlighted by a top 10 last week in Mexico.
Gdula: Max Greyserman (50-1, FanDuel) — Greyserman checks boxes with his Bermuda putting and overall ball-striking in recent rounds. Based on his historical scoring trends, he actually has one of the peak ceilings in this field.
Stewart: Gary Woodland (80-1, Bet365) — Is Gary Woodland back to 100%? In 2025, Woodland has finished 16th at the Sony Open, 22nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 21st at the WM Phoenix Open. Gary was off at Torrey, but a solid start to the season, nonetheless. On a tough test like PGA National, where trajectory and ball speed score, I like Gary to go deep and complete his career comeback. A great Florida player, Woodland has finished inside the top eight at Cognizant in two of his last three starts.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Nicolai Hojgaard (55-1, FanDuel) — We’ve seen Europeans thrive at PGA National in the past, and the Euros are making a statement on the PGA Tour in 2025. Hojgaard is flushing the ball right now, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he threatens the top of the leader board once again for his first PGA Tour win.
Powers, Golf Digest: Luke Clanton (55-1, FanDuel) — This week, all Clanton must do to earn his PGA Tour card is make the cut, but I think he’ll be aiming way higher in his home state. The approach play hasn’t been strong of late, but he’s made incremental improvements over the last handful of starts. We know he has the length to hang with the big dogs and he should be nice and comfy on the Bermudagrass greens considering he’s been playing on them his entire life.
Lack: Ryan Gerard (80-1, FanDuel) — Ryan Gerard has quietly been playing some strong golf to open the season, and he is coming off a 17th place at the Mexico Open where he gained over a stroke and a half in both ball-striking categories. Gerard now returns to a course where he finished fourth in his only appearance in far better form than he was on debut.
Cognizant Classic picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Jordan Spieth (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Given his lack of tournament reps, this difficult driving and ball-striking test will be a great litmus test of the state of his game. I’d tend to think he’s using this week as another warm-up before the big weeks coming up.
Mayo: Daniel Berger (22-1, Bet365) — I want to believe, but the odds are simply too short, too soon.
Gdula: Sungjae Im (22-1, FanDuel) — Im has lost strokes from approach play in four of his last five starts and has really struggled over his last three. Perhaps a return to a course where he’s won in the past will do him well, but he’s also lost on approach in four straight starts here with two missed cuts in that span.
Stewart: Daniel Berger (22-1, Bet365) — This feels like such a trap bet to me. Bettors were just waiting for Daniel Berger to arrive in Florida. They love the fit at PGA National where Berger has finished fourth in two of his last three starts. They forget Berger has never won in Florida. In 21 career Florida swing starts Daniel has eight missed cuts and only five top 10s. In 2022, Berger held a five-shot lead in the final round of the Cognizant Classic and lost. Bad memories on Bermudagrass along with no wins in the Sunshine State are why I’ll stay away this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Denny McCarthy (30-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The course history with Denny here is surprising, but something obviously doesn’t suit his eye about PGA National.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sepp Straka (22-1, BetMGM) — Feels wrong to go against the former winner here, especially after the start he’s had to 2025. But he came crashing back down to earth at Torrey, losing nearly five strokes on approach and almost six tee-to-green en route to a MC.
Lack: Taylor Pendrith (30-1, Bet365) — Taylor Pendrith has been playing some great golf to open the season, but I worry he is on the wrong side of a good run, as his approach play regressed significantly in his last start. PGA National is one of the least driver-heavy courses on the PGA Tour and should limit his strength in powerful driving. Instead, the Fazio/Nicklaus design places an increased emphasis on approach play and putting, which has been a bit more shaky for the Canadian of late.
Cognizant Classic picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Shane Lowry (-120) over Russell Henley (Bet365) — This is a de-facto home game now for Lowry, a Palm Beach resident, who has great history here. That’s no surprise as the former Open champ plays great in the wind, being able to shape his shots on command. Henley is a past champ here, but I trust Lowry’s all-around game more than Henley.
Mayo: Michael Kim (+100) over Kurt Kitayama (Bet365) — Kim just finishes inside the top 20 every week these days. Kitayama is a model darling from weak fields in the swing season.
Gdula: Luke Clanton (-105) over Rickie Fowler (FanDuel) — Clanton has a per-round advantage of 0.77 strokes over his last 50 rounds over Fowler and is dusting him in the ball-striking department while maintaining similar putting splits.
Stewart: Ben Griffin (+100) over Davis Thompson (BetMGM) — Ben Griffin is the perfect underdog bet at PGA National. Bermuda Ben just finished fourth in Mexico and has gained four strokes per start over his last 10 tournaments. Davis Thompson finished 13th at Genesis, but that may have been a bit misleading. Thompson has been struggling with his irons, losing strokes in five of his last six starts. Davis also has been bad on the greens, losing strokes in six of his last seven. It’s go time for Griffin in Florida and in this 72-hole matchup.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (-120) over Russell Henley (Bet365) — I’m with our swing coach on this one. The RickRunGood.com head-to-head predictor gives Lowry nearly a 70 percent chance of winning this matchup over the past 36 rounds of data, which is a big enough edge for a play here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Lucas Glover (-110) over Austin Eckroat (Bet365) — While he did manage a 13th at Pebble Beach, the defending champion, Eckroat, has missed four out of five cuts. If there were a place to right the ship, it would probably be here, but I’ll roll with the more consistent Glover, who has made nine of his last 11 cuts with three third-place finishes along the way.
Lack: Daniel Berger (+100) over Taylor Pendrith (BetOnline) — This is an easy one, as it pits one of picks to win against my fade of the week. Most notably, Berger is playing some excellent golf at the moment, recording back-to-back top-12 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open and Farmers Insurance Open, and he boasts an incredibly strong record track on positional, Southeastern Bermuda tracks. Pendrith’s approach play regressed in a major way in his last start, and the positional nature of PGA National should also mitigate his greatest strength: power off the tee.
Matchup Results from the Mexico Open: Powers: 1 for 1 (Smalley (+100) over Yu); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Rozner (-104) over Perez); Lack: 1 for 1 (Smalley (-120) over Norgaard); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Sigg (+100) over Fishburn); Hennessey: PUSH (Griffin (-110) over Rai); Swing coach: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 5-2-1 (up 2.87 units); Powers: 5-3-0 (up 2.15 units); Swing coach: 3-1-1 (up 1.54 units); Lack: 4-4-0 (down 0.5 units); Mayo: 3-5-0 (down 1.99 units); Stewart: 3-5-0 (down 2.02 units); Gdula: 3-5-0 (down 2.35 units)
Cognizant Classic picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Denny McCarthy (+375, Bet365) — Denny tends to play well on tough tests, like we saw at the Genesis. I’d ignore his history here as his game seems to be clicking with that close call a few weeks ago. I like his chances to contend again.
Mayo: Shane Lowry (+260, Bet365) — Playing nicely so far in 2025 and he posts a top 10 every year here. Seriously – he's gone runner-up, fifth and fourth in his last three trips to PGA National.
Gdula: Taylor Pendrith (+320, FanDuel) — Pendrith has lost strokes putting in two of his last three starts and in four of his last five, yet his long-term baseline is one of the best on tour. That screams that a putting regression is coming. As one of the most consistent ball-strikers in the field, he should be set up for success this week.
Stewart: Shane Lowry (+260, Bet365) — Let’s not overthink this. On a tough track like PGA National, Shane Lowry has finished second, fifth, and fourth in his last three starts. Incredible in the wind and excellent at keeping his ball in play, Lowry’s ball striking is made for this test. Bermudagrass is Lowry’s best putting surface, and he really seems to embrace this Champion test. Take the 10 places and cash a winning placement ticket.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Matteo Manassero (+1200, Bet365) — The Italian has started off slow on his return to the PGA Tour, but he actually has some decent history at PGA National, though it was a long time ago (T-12 in 2014 and T-29 in 2013). He exceled on difficult tests on the DP World Tour last year, so I think this should be a good fit.
Powers, Golf Digest: Kris Ventura (+1200, FanDuel) — Ventura was sensational in both the first and final rounds off the tee last week in Mexico, and more than solid on approach in both those rounds, too. It was a pair of middling 71s on Friday and Saturday that saw him finish T-25. The former Oklahoma State standout was once the senior leader on a Cowboy squad that featured fellow Norwegian Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff and last year’s Cognizant winner, Austin Eckroat. Ventura was unable to find the immediate success those guys eventually found but he seems to be turning a corner of late. Perhaps this week could serve as a breakout spot like it did for Eckroat.
Lack: Kurt Kitayama (+475, Bet365) — This is an excellent buy low spot for Kurt Kitayama, who is coming off a disappointing missed cut at the Mexico Open. Yet Kitayama now returns to a golf course that he has already recorded a third-place finish at, and his overall ball-striking this year has remained top-notch.
Top-10 results from the Mexico Open: Lack: 1 for 1 (Nicolai Hojgaard +400); Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Stephan Jaeger +280); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Aaron Rai +280);
Top-10 results from this season: Lack: 4 for 8 (up 10.4 units); Mayo: 2 for 8 (up 8.33 units); Gdula: 3 for 8 (up 3.8 units); Swing coach: 2 for 5 (up 2.8 units); Stewart: 2 for 8 (down 2.75 units); Hennessey: 0 for 8 (down 8 units); Powers: 0 for 8 (down 8 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports