SOUTHPORT, England — Cut day at the British Open brings with it plenty of stress and anxiety as players well down the leaderboard keep a close eye on the scores to figure out where they stand, and whether the numbers they’re posting will be low enough to play on the weekend. Exactly where that will fall at Royal Birkdale is unclear considering that the course is very much firm and fast, but scores in the first round were relatively low (59 players shooting par or better).
The rules for who makes the cut at the Open are similar to those at the PGA Championship: low 70 players and ties advance to play all four rounds. This differs from the U.S. Open, which makes the cut at low 60 and ties, and the Masters, which keeps the low 50 and ties around on the weekend. And there is no 10-stroke rule in effect to help determine the British Open cut, so even if first-round leader Jackson Suber had started to run away with things on Friday (he didn't, but is hanging around two off the lead of Lucas Herbert), it woudn't change the fate of those farther down the leaderboard.
All this is, of course, particularly relevant for handful of the game’s more familiar names at the start of the day, notably Rory McIlroy (two-over 72 after Day 1), Jordan Spieth (73), Wyndham Clark (73), Sam Burns (73), Matt Fitzpatrick (74) and Justin Rose (75). Each had work to do Friday at Birkdale if they hoped to find themselves merely playing on the weekend let alone back in contention. (McIlroy and Burns came through, Fitzpatrick and Clark, not so much, with Rose and Spieth still grinding.)
What are their chances of making Open Championship 36-hole cut and playing the weekend? Well, if the cut was made after just 18 holes, you needed to shoot one-over-par 71 or better to be inside the top 70 and ties (which includes 80 players). As of 4:35 p.m. local time, datagolf.com projects a 90.9 percent chance the cut will come at one-over 141 and a 7 percent chance at even-par 140. That's different from the start of the second round, when the project was a 41.8 percent chance of the cut coming at two-over 142.
As a point of reference, here’s what the Open Championship 36-hole cut line has been for the last 10 Opens:
2025: 143 (+1), Royal Portrush
2024: 148 (+6), Royal Troon
2023: 145 (+3), Royal Liverpool
2022: 144 (E), St. Andrews
2021: 141 (+1), Royal St. George's
2019: 143 (+1), Royal Portrush
2018: 145 (+3), Carnoustie
2017: 145 (+5), Royal Birkdale
2016: 146 (+4), Royal Troon
2015: 144 (E), St. Andrews
And here is the cut for the last four Opens at Royal Birkdale:
2017: 145 (+5)
2008: 149 (+9)
1998: 146 (+6)
1991: 148 (+8)
At all four of those Opens, Royal Birkdale played to a par of 70. So if the pace keeps up the way it is, this will be the lowest cutline score in history at Birkdale as well as in relation to par. It also will be flirting with the lowest cutline score of all time. That number is 141, posted at the 2021 Open at Royal St. George’s.
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Is it the British Open or the Open Championship? The name of the final men’s major of the golf season is a subject of continued discussion. The event’s official name, as explained in this op-ed by former R&A chairman Ian Pattinson, is the Open Championship. But since many United States golf fans continue to refer to it as the British Open, and search news around the event accordingly, Golf Digest continues to utilize both names in its coverage.
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