Pebble PicksJune 15, 2019

U.S. Open 2019 live odds and weekend predictions: Who our experts like to make a move on Saturday

U.S. Open - Round Two
Ross Kinnaird(Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

The proceedings at Pebble Beach might not be wide open this weekend, as Gary Woodland leads after 36 holes with Justin Rose one back. But it certainly feels like it’s still anyone’s tournament to win.

Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka are certainly right there, each looking for their fifth major title. And a host of other talented players linger, as 17 players are within six shots of Woodland’s two-shot lead. We know no lead is safe, particularly at a U.S. Open, where double bogey lurks at every turn. Who do our experts think is worth betting on this weekend?

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We asked our group of experts, including Columbia University senior lecturer and Ph.D. Lou Riccio, who uses predictive analysis and modeling to forecast winners in golf and Reid Fowler, a DraftKings analyst, to give us their analysis after Round 2. Here are their best bets:

Outright winner: Chez Reavie (80-1) I'm adding another longshot to my card, just in case the top-brass start to come back toward the field on the weekend. With his first two rounds under par, Reavie is in a nice spot to potentially make a weekend charge, and he’s got the HOT irons to do so. Those irons (and driving) are good enough to rank first in strokes gained ball-striking. And over the past 36 rounds, sorting by short courses with difficult-to-hit fairways, Chez is No. 1 in fairways gained and No. 1 in proximity for 150-175 yards. He finished 16th at Erin Hills in 2017 and ranked inside the top-10 in putting at Bethpage last month. Let’s hope for more putts to fall for him this weekend, and we could have a nice ticket for the Sunday sweat. If Rory starts surging or if Woodland keeps it up, I’d also take a look at the top-10/top-five odds as well (if your book offers it). --Reid Fowler, DraftKings expert

Third-round matchup: Andrew Putnam (+175) over Patrick Cantlay (DraftKings) — My model gives Putnam a projected third-round score of 68.3564, compared to Cantlay, at 69.2281. Cantlay entered the U.S. Open hot with high expectations, but his stats are very poor after two rounds. Per FantasyNational.com, he ranks 76th in the field in strokes gained/approach and 95th in strokes gained/ball-striking through two rounds. What happened to Cantlay? Still, the oddsmakers are making him a heavy favorite because of the name recognition. Take Putnam, who hit 11 of his 14 fairways on Friday, a must to scoring well at Pebble. --Dr. Lou Riccio

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Outright winner: Aaron Wise (41-1) — Oddsmakers are still severely discounting Aaron Wise’s number, and you can take advantage of the value. The 22-year-old is just four back of Gary Woodland, and he has the firepower of the elite players you have to pay up for. Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka are both 4-1, but Aaron Wise is at 41-1? That’s a massive discrepancy. Obviously, Wise is in new territory, competing for his first major title, while Rory and Koepka have been in this position many times before. The stats, though, don’t care about name recognition. Wise is right behind Rory in my model, as it gives the former NCAA champion expected odds of 11-1. Take the value when you can get it. --Riccio

Third-round matchup: Rickie Fowler (-114) over Bryson DeChambeau (DraftKings) — The stats point to Rickie Fowler being a bigger favorite over Bryson DeChambeau, but you're not paying too much of a premium for him. The only thing to overcome: Rickie Fowler, yes, Rickie Fowler, is ranked 71st among the field in strokes gained/putting through two rounds. That seems something that should easily change. Fowler is one of the best putters on tour. Rickie outranks Bryson in every other strokes-gained metric after two rounds, so if Rickie just starts putting on an average level, or even below average, rather than really bad, this should be a win. --SH

Third-round matchup: Tommy Fleetwood (-125) over Tyrrell Hatton (DraftKings) — My model favors Fleetwood by an average of 1.3 strokes in their third-round scores, so paying up for Fleetwood looks to be worth it. --Riccio

Third-round matchup: Sepp Straka (+188) over Matthew Fitzpatrick — Again, this is all about name recognition and finding value in the lines. The stats are pretty equal when you compare Straka and Fitzpatrick through two rounds. Fitzpatrick has the clear edge on strokes gained/approach, but Straka is fourth in the field in strokes gained/off-the-tee, compared to Fitz, who is 36th. Straka has been playing great golf lately, earning medalist honors at his U.S. Open sectional qualifier and following that up with a great weekend at the Canadian Open. At nearly 2-1 odds, we like Straka to edge Fitzpatrick here.

RELATED: U.S. Open 2019: Third-round tee times

U.S. Open 2019: Live odds to win, pre-third round (per Sportsbook.ag):

Rory McIlroy: +400
Gary Woodland: +500
Justin Rose: +500
Brooks Koepka: +650
Louis Oosthuizen: +1400
Dustin Johnson: +2000
Xander Schauffele: +2500
Matt Kuchar: +2800
Adam Scott: +3000
Jon Rahm: +3000
Aaron Wise: +4000
Matt Wallace: +4500
Henrik Stenson: +5000
Sergio Garcia: +5000
Tiger Woods: +5000
Francesco Molinari: +6000
Graeme McDowell: +6500
Jordan Spieth: +6500
Phil Mickelson: +6500
Chez Reavie: +8000
Scott Piercy: +12500
Zach Johnson: +12500
Chesson Hadley: +15000
Hideki Matsuyama: +15000
Jim Furyk: +15000
Matthew Fitzpatrick: +15000
Rickie Fowler: +15000
Haotong Li: +20000
Jason Day: +20000
Paul Casey: +20000
Webb Simpson: +20000

RELATED: U.S. Open 2019: Third-round tee times

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