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U.S. Open 2019 live odds and best bets: Who's most likely to catch Justin Rose? Our experts weigh in
David Cannon
Justin Rose emerged from one of the lowest scoring opening rounds of a U.S. Open in recent memory, with 39 players finishing Day 1 in red numbers. Rose's six-under 65 gave him a one-shot lead, but there are 15 golfers just three back of his lead, including four major champions.
Will Thursday's ripe scoring conditions continue through Day 2 at Pebble Beach, and who's most likely to make a move on Friday? We asked our group of experts, including Columbia University senior lecturer and Ph.D. Lou Riccio, who uses predictive analysis and modeling to forecast winners in golf; Justin Bailey from the Action Network, a leader in premium handicapping data, Brandon Gdula, a senior editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, and Reid Fowler, a DraftKings analyst, to give us their analysis after Round 1. Here are their best bets:
Outright winner: Jon Rahm (+3300, FanDuel Sportsbook) — Rahm’s fifth in strokes gained/ball-striking (strokes gained/off the tee plus strokes gained/approach), according to FantasyNational. However, he has lost 1.4 strokes on the green despite being a historically plus putter on poa and a plus putter overall. He’s in striking distance and has had great tee-to-green play to start. --Brandon Gdula, NumbersFire analyst
Day 2 match-up: Tyrrell Hatton (-104) over Shane Lowry — Outside of gaining 2.4 strokes putting on Thursday, Lowry was abysmal everywhere else. Overall, he lost 2.4 strokes on approach, 3.4 strokes ball striking and 4.7 strokes tee-to-green, all of which ranked 139th or worse in the field. You’re not going to play well at a U.S. Open if you’re not striking your irons well and that’s where Lowry fell short today. Meanwhile, Hatton was solid today, gaining 2.9 strokes on approach, 1.2 strokes ball striking and 2.1 strokes tee-to-green, per Fantasy National. I’ll take my chances taking the slight underdog against a guy who wasn’t striking it well the day before. --Justin Bailey, Action Network For more Action Network Round 2 picks, click here.
Outright winner: Hideki Matsuyama (+4000, DraftKings Sportsbook) — Could this be it? Could Matsuyama finally break through for his first major? He’s been close before with a runner-up in 2017 at Erin Hills, and my sentiment on Hideki is similar to potentially betting Rickie Fowler this week—at the fear of missing out when either one wins their first major (+900 is a tad too short for Fowler, see where it goes tomorrow). Even though Matsuyama, ranked No. 29 in the world, hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the 2017 WGC-Bridgestone, he’s still playing fantastic gaining strokes through approach in every tournament since August 2018 and gaining strokes around the greens in 10 straight tournaments. We witnessed it with Rory last week and others throughout the season—when the ball-striking is there every tournament, it’s only a matter of time until the putting (and everything else) clicks resulting in a win. Matsuyama is top-10 in strokes gained total at the U.S. Open since 2014 and was eighth in strokes gained tee-to-green after Round 1. --Reid Fowler, DraftKings expert
Outright winner: Aaron Wise (50-1) — My model liked Aaron Wise before this week, placing him in my top 15, so I'm not surprised to see him excel after one round. After the hot start, in which he's one back of the lead, my model really likes Wise's chances: It says he has the third best chance to win out of the entire field. The expected odds, according to my model, should be around 10-1. So you're getting extreme on Wise because, well, his name is Aaron Wise, and not Rory McIlroy or Rickie Fowler. Still, this isn't some no-name long shot: Wise has serious game. Take advantage—if Wise can combine the length and accuracy he showcased on Thursday, and continue it on the weekend, this 50-1 number will really seem like a discount. --Dr. Lou Riccio, Columbia University
Day 2 Three-ball matchup: (Emiliano Grillo (+110) over Thorbjorn Olesen and Ryan Fox — It might seem enticing to take Olesen or Fox, who both are chasing either the leader or the cut line, but their number(s) are fool’s gold against Grillo, who gained over three strokes ball-striking and ranked fifth in tee-to-green after Round 1. What does ‘faux-gold’ at the U.S. Open look like? Olesen ranked second in putting (which can negatively regress day-to-day more so than approach or off-the-tee), and 85th in ball-striking while Fox ranked outside the top-100 in strokes gained putting and around-the-green today. Advantage, Grillo. --RF
Day 2 Three-ball matchup: Kyle Stanley (+200) over Danny Willett and Billy Horschel — Stanley’s irons are hot (+2.6 strokes gained/approach), but he’s lost a full 2.0 strokes putting. That has him at even par despite ranking 12th in strokes gained/tee-to-green. Willett (+0.4) and Horschel (+0.2) didn’t bring it with the approach play on Thursday, so we can take a shot on Stanley at these odds. --BG
Odds to win, post Day 1 (Odds per FanDuel Sportsbook):
Justin Rose +550
Rory McIlroy +800
Brooks Koepka +850
Rickie Fowler +950
Xander Schauffele +950
Tiger Woods +1500
Francesco Molinari +1900
Louis Oosthuizen +2100
Dustin Johnson +2400
Henrik Stenson +3600
Hideki Matsuyama +3600
Jon Rahm +3600
Aaron Wise +4100
Bryson DeChambeau +4600
Gary Woodland +4800
Matt Kuchar +4800
Adam Scott +5500
Jordan Spieth +5500
Scott Piercy +5500
Jason Day +7000
Emiliano Grillo +7500
Graeme McDowell +7500
Marc Leishman +7500
Martin Kaymer +7500
Paul Casey +7500
Sergio Garcia +7500
Tommy Fleetwood +7500
Chez Reavie +9000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +9000
Patrick Cantlay +9000
Nate Lashley +12000
Chesson Hadley +16000
Rafael Cabrera Bello +1600
Justin Thomas +19000
Matt Wallace +19000
Phil Mickelson +19000
Tyrrell Hatton +19000
Viktor Hovland +19000
Danny Willett +28000
Jason Dufner +28000
Kevin Na +28000
Patrick Reed +28000
Sepp Straka +28000
Webb Simpson +28000
Zach Johnson +28000