Betting Analysis
Truist Championship picks 2025: The sneaky reason you have to bet Collin Morikawa
There's nothing quite like getting to see some of the best players in the world tackle a brand new course on the PGA Tour, especially when the course is designed by a legendary architect like A.W. Tillinghast. That's the fortunate situation we find ourselves in this week with the Truist Championship at Philly Cricket Club.
Of course, this does make it a little harder to predict, though our panel is certainly going to give it our best effort. We've had some success in the Signature Events already this year, so we like our chances.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Philadelphia Cricket Club, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Truist Championship:
Truist Championship picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Collin Morikawa (16-1, Bet365) — I love having a new caddie, Joe Greiner, in this spot. Morikawa has proven his game is good enough to hang with the elites—it’s just been about getting over the line. Greiner can push him this week. The new mojo makes him a good bet for a win here. He’s due for a big week, and on a course that favors great wedge and approach play, there are few better.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Xander Schauffele (16-1, BetRivers) — I’d like to believe I’m not walking into a trap… again. Guess we’ll find out. Despite consistently losing strokes off the tee, Xander’s results have started to veer towards the top of the board again. The distance remains elite, his irons didn’t really suffer at all upon his return and his short game and feel is improving every week. As long as he’s in the third tier of favorites on the odds board he’s probably going to get my money.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Justin Thomas (16-1, FanDuel) — To win a signature event, you need a big ceiling, and no player has a higher mathematical scoring ceiling over his past 50 rounds in this field than JT does. He’s also a great bunker player (there are 118 bunkers this week) and precise from key anticipated proximity ranges at this new tour course.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Jordan Spieth (28-1, BetMGM) — In his past four starts, Jordan Spieth has finished 12th, 14th (Masters), 18th and fourth. Spieth hasn’t shown this much consistency since before the wrist started hurting him years ago. Jordan is ranked 15th SG/off the tee and 12th in driving distance. He can score from close range and save strokes from the bunkers. The trend is our friend, and the skill-set definitely matches the course.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Russell Henley (35-1, FanDuel) — As a shorter par-70 course, Philly Cricket Club is going to allow golfers who excel with their wedge game to separate themselves. Henley is as good as anybody: He’s first this year in proximity from 125-150 yards and second from 100-125 yards, per RickRunGood.com. He’s extremely accurate off the tee, which will be important with wet conditions creating some thick rough at the Wissahickon course, so if we get a decent putting week, it’s not farfetched to imagine Henley winning his second signature event of 2025.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Daniel Berger (40-1, DraftKings) — A bentgrass specialist, Daniel Berger is not. But he most certainly possesses the all-around game everyone seems to believe will lead to victory this week. Add in the fact he’s come so close this year but not gotten over the hump yet (third at Harbour Town, second at WMPO, second at RSM), and it seems like we have a guy poised to break through for an elusive comeback victory, his last on the PGA Tour coming at the 2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, FanDuel) — Patrick Cantlay is quietly in some of his best approach form of his career, and he has now gained over two strokes on approach in seven straight starts. With long track record of success on Northeastern bentgrass courses, Philadelphia Cricket Club is the ideal venue for Cantlay to break his winless draught.
Past results: We have another (easy) winner, with our anonymous tour coach correctly predicting Scottie Scheffler’s Byron Nelson win at +300. He now has three wins this year (Rory McIlroy at the Players at 12-1, Rory McIlroy at the Masters at +650), which leads the panel. As a group, we now have eight individual wins in 2025.
Truist Championship picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Andrew Novak (60-1, FanDuel) — Crazy good odds on a player who has proven his game is as good as anybody’s these past three weeks, nearly winning on another shorter course in an elite field at Harbour Town. He has the win off his back and should be freed up to collect another trophy.
Mayo: Keegan Bradley (55-1, Bet365) — Really, outside the Masters, it’s been Keegan’s putting that’s sinking his results. He’s lost over four strokes on the greens per start over his past three. Still, he sits sixth in the field tee-to-green over his past 24 rounds. Here’s to hoping for a stiffer challenge, combined with traveling back up to the Northeast to find us a spike putting week.
Gdula: Aaron Rai (60-1, FanDuel) — Rai is typically a low-variance golfer but leads the field over the past 50 rounds in fairways gained and is likely due for some putting regression. At a course with some unknowns in terms of setup, I can be OK with a look at Rai’s all-around game for such a long number in a small field.
Stewart: Keegan Bradley (55-1, Bet365) — It never hurts to have a little Northeast know-how when it comes to competing on a first-time venue. Keegan Bradley has won in Philadelphia on the PGA Tour at nearby Aronimink and possesses the power and accuracy to do it again. Familiarity with bentgrass will give him confidence on the greens just as it did when he won in Hartford at 23 under par. A notoriously great par-70 player is just another advantage I love for Captain Keegan this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (55-1, Bet365) — The former St. John’s product plays some of his best golf in the Northeast. He won last time the tour was in Philly, taking home the 2018 BMW Championship at nearby Aronimink. And he was first-round leader at the BMW when it was at Wilmington Country Club. I think you at least need to bet him to lead after Round 1 and sprinkle on him to win, too.
Powers, Golf Digest: Harris English (100-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Northeast bentgrass Tillie, you say? Who remembers the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot? Harris English finished fourth that week. And while he had an ugly performance at Harbour Town, he had just posted consecutive top 20s at Houston and the Masters. So he has some recent form to lean on.
Lack: Keegan Bradley (55-1, Bet365) — Keegan Bradley boasts a strong track record of success in the Northeast on courses such as TPC River Highlands, Aronimink and Brookline, and he is in the midst of an excellent approach season. The Ryder Cup captain will be heavily motivated to bolster his resume this week, and I’m expecting a strong performance out of the New England native.
Truist Championship picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Tour coach: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, FanDuel) — His play has just been average thus far in 2025, and that’s not the case with most of the elite players in this field. He just hasn’t shown me enough in the bigger moments to think a big performance is on deck.
Mayo: Daniel Berger (28-1, BetRivers) — I like Berger and all, but he’s been elevated into a betting tier he simply hasn’t earned.
Gdula: Patrick Cantlay (20-1, FanDuel) — As much as I love Cantlay’s game right now, it’s not leading to spike weeks like you’ll need to beat a field like this one. Perhaps he finally pieces his game together all at once, but as of now, the number is too short to bank on that.
Stewart: Viktor Hovland (25-1, DraftKings) — So many aspects of the Wissahickon Course match Viktor Hovland’s skill-set. Hovland has been great on Northern target-style courses and can go low. I’m sure Viktor can keep it close for 72 holes, but in the end the variety of short-game shots needed to close the deal will lead to his demise. Hovland is ranked near the bottom in bogey avoidance and sand saves in this field. This course has 60 greenside bunkers! I’m going to save Viktor for the PGA where length and long irons are more important than chipping and pitching.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg (16-1, FanDuel) — Aberg is prone to piling up bogeys, ranking 55th in bogey avoidance in this small field in 2025, per RickRunGood.com. His wedge play is also below the other elites, so this is an easy fade for me.
Powers, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Not quite as sold as him being back and ready to contend for the career grand slam next week like some others seem to be off of one halfway decent performance at an extremely easy golf course in his home state.
Lack: Ludvig Aberg (16-1, FanDuel) — While Ludvig Aberg continues to possess tremendous upside given his combination of power and accuracy off the tee, I have considerable concerns about his recent approach play. Aberg has not had a truly strong approach performance since winning the Genesis Invitational in February, and this is a hefty price to pay for a player who has been so shaky with his irons.
Truist Championship picks 2025: Matchups
Tour coach: Justin Thomas (-139) over Patrick Cantlay (Bet365) — JT’s coming in hot off the win, and I’m still not sold on Cantlay performing when it matters. JT is primed and gearing up for next week at Quail, so there’s no question we’re getting his A-game.
Mayo: Michael Thorbjornsen (-105) over Max Homa (Coolbet) — Thorbjornsen is fifth in distance and third in carry distance over the past year and playing some solid golf entering Philly. After his T-2 at Corales, he followed it up with a stellar result at the team event before one bad round at CJ Cup had him finish T-29. There’s a worry all Thorbjornsen’s good results in his short career have come at easy venues. But he comes with substantial upside and did play his high school golf in the Northeast so hopefully he’s comfortable with the setup. And it’s against Homa, who is live for last place.
Gdula: Jordan Spieth (-120) over Viktor Hovland (FanDuel) — The heavy bunkering here may not lead to the best results for Hovland, and Spieth’s recent ball-striking stacks up well compared to Hovland’s of late (the last six months).
Stewart: Xander Schauffele (-120) over Ludvig Aberg (Bet365) — I’m taking the two-time major champion and his well-rounded game in this matchup. I believe Schauffele’s around-the-green acumen gives him an edge in this wedge fest, and I love his week-to-week consistency. Ludvig’s season has been a roller-coaster. Åberg has a higher ceiling, but the floor has dropped out on more than one occasion this spring.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (-120) over Viktor Hovland (Bet365) — Berger gets an edge in this matchup for me based on his off-the-tee stats, ability to avoid bogeys and around-the-green play. RickRunGood.com’s matchup generator makes this more like a -250 line, so it’s a big play for me.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (+100) over Justin Thomas (DraftKings) — JT is hot, no doubt, but he seems far too big of a favorite over Cantlay, who just gained nearly six strokes tee-to-green at Harbour Town and has eaten real good in the Northeast in his career.
Lack: Patrick Cantlay (-120) over Ludvig Aberg (Bet365) — This is an easy one, as I am getting my pick to win as a slight favorite over my fade of the week, and I simply trust Cantlay’s recent approach play far more than Ludvig’s. Both players have been driving the ball tremendously well and possess a strong track record of success on bentgrass greens, but Cantlay’s superior short to middle iron play will be the separator in this matchup.
Matchup Results from the Byron Nelson: Lack: VOID (Jaeger (-110) over Zalatoris (WD)); Everybody else: 0 for 1.
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Tour coach: 10-3-2 (up 5.76 units); Powers: 11-7-0 (up 3.95 units); Hennessey: 10-7-1 (up 2.3 units); Lack: 8-8-1 (down 0.04 units); Stewart: 7-11-0 (down 4.11 units); Gdula: 6-11-1 (down 5.82 units); Mayo: 5-12-0 (down 7.05 units)
Truist Championship picks 2025: Top 10s
Tour coach: Andrew Novak (+375, FanDuel) — It’s time to respect Novak’s game. In his past three events, his worst finish is a T-3. On a tough ball-striking course, he keeps it hot this week.
Mayo: Corey Conners (+275, Caesars Sportsbook) — It’s difficult capping a course we’ve never seen tackled by the top end pros. But from what I can tell, because of the tiered greens, around the green may mean a little less this week than most. That’s a boost for the Canadian as, if you’ve ever watched him, Conners… struggles… with his chipping. Everything else, he’s a viking. Even his once lackluster putting has been improving in 2025.
Gdula: Russell Henley (+280, FanDuel) — Henley is the fourth best player in the field by datagolf’s true strokes gained metric over the last three months and is sixth over the last six months. He’s a top-five bunker player in the field since the start of last season, too.
Stewart: Justin Thomas (+175, DraftKings) — Half of Justin Thomas’ 2025 starts have resulted in a top-10 finish. In the past four years, JT’s top-10 conversion rate is 35 percent. Building on the RBC Heritage win, knowing his course fit, and with no cut, give me Thomas and 10 places.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (+280, Bet365) — Lowry’s ranked ninth in Good Drive Percentage and 10th in SG/approach in 2025, per RickRunGood.com. His accuracy off the tee and strong wedge play should give him plenty of chances. He doesn’t have to make all the putts to cash this top-10 bet.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (+650, DraftKings) — I retired from betting on Patrick Rodgers many moons ago, but he’s left me no choice but to come out of said retirement after tweeting at me on Tuesday. I would not be able to sleep again if THIS was the week of all weeks that he went on to win. Some actual analysis for this play: Rodgers loves bentgrass and quietly had his best finish since early March last week at the Byron Nelson.
Lack: Shane Lowry (+280, Bet365) — Shane Lowry’s well-rounded skill set should pay dividends at Philadelphia Cricket Club, particularly his accuracy off the tee and overall approach play. The Irishman has a strong track record of success both in the Northeast and on bentgrass, and I’m expecting another high-end performance at the iconic Tillinghast layout.
Top-10 results from the Byron Nelson: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Swing coach: 5 for 15 (up 14.8 units); Gdula: 7 for 18 (up 13 units); Mayo: 3 for 17 (up 5.33 units); Lack: 6 for 18 (up 9.5 units); Stewart: 5 for 18 (down 1.65 units); Hennessey: 2 for 18 (down 8.8 units); Powers: 0 for 18 (down 18 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
