TGL 2025: Our PGA pro’s best bets for the Monday triple-header

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. -- We've seen five TGL matches in six weeks. All of that is about to change as the PGA Tour heads to the East Coast in a week, and 10 matches will take place over the next 15 days. Our first TGL season is ramping up in a big way in a furious rush for the SoFi Cup. I'm in the SoFi Arena and with three times the content to cover; no time like the present... let's go!

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The format, course, and starting lineups

The TGL format remains the same as our first four matches. If you missed the first couple of matches and you are curious how it works, their website does an excellent job of explaining the league rules with quick videos (​​​​TGL EXPLAINED​​​​). 🚨 TGL has changed a rule! Here are the new HAMMER rules explained by the TGL website:

• Starting Monday, each team will begin the match with three Hammers. Playing the Hammer raises the stakes of a hole by one point when played and accepted. Teams can only throw the Hammer once on a given hole but are otherwise free to use them at any point in the match. The maximum number of points on offer per hole is now 3 (should each team throw a Hammer that is accepted by their opponent). Teams can decline the Hammer but by doing so concede the hole and the points on offer. However, teams can’t decline the Hammer when it is thrown before the first tee shot on a given hole. Here's a full breakdown from Luke Kerr-Dineen.​

Bullet points are my friend for these next couple of TGL previews. Here's how we are starting each of the matches.

• Justin Rose leads off Match 6 for the Los Angeles Golf Club and will be followed by Billy Horschel from the Atlanta Drive Golf Club.
• Wyndham Clark leads off Match 7 for The Bay Golf Club and will be followed by Patrick Cantlay from the Atlanta Drive Golf Club.
• Keegan Bradley leads off Match 8 for the Boston Common Golf team and will be followed by Shane Lowry from The Bay Golf Club.

A quick look at the standings: LAGC leads the way: 2-0 (4 pts). Remember you get two points for a win and 1 point for an overtime loss. The Bay Golf Club is 1-0 (2 pts) along with Atlanta Drive Golf Club (1-0, 2 pts). Boston Common Golf is 0-1-1 (1 pt) and needs to walk away with a win on Monday. Each team only gets five matches, so if BCG stays at one point after three matches their postseason hopes are essentially over.

Keith's "TGL" Keys 🗞️

A couple of key insights you can claim as your own idea at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations.

1. GIRs are great: We have yet to go through a match where any team has hit more than 80% of their GIRs (TBGC). Hit the green and you put an incredible amount of pressure on your opponent.
2. Short game savvy: Players keep missing greens and the teams who perform best around the putting surface are winning.
3. Fail to plan...: After five matches it amazes me how much a couple of teams have failed to put their best players in the best spot in the lineup. These guys literally play video game golf. They should build the rotation and be able to predict who putts, tees off on par 3s, etc.

Match 6 presents us with the shortest course yet for a TGL match. The layout will be a par 60 measuring 5,765 yards … the hole strategy team must have been in a good mood. These are two of the shorter teams in the league off the tee. By designing a course that has an average par 3 of just 162 yards, they clearly wanted more birdies than bogeys. Play the final hole Quick Draw across the canyon, and all of the par 5s are under 600 yards. I mentioned this trend in the last preview, these course layouts keep getting shorter and shorter. One fun fact to mention, Hole 4 called "Sterling" makes its TGL debut Monday afternoon.

Getting into our second scorecard, Match 7 hosts a little longer layout at 5,809 yards. Another par 60 layout, we see the usual allotment of five par 3s, 4s and 5s. Another common characteristic of these layouts is the ninth and 10th holes being back-to-back par 5s. Both Match 6 and 8 have the same makeup around the transition between Triples and Individual H2Hs. All three courses end with a par 5, and the par 4s for the second Monday match range from 297 to 502 yards. In watching the matches on-site, I'd like to see the TGL scorecard architects force more decision-making in their designs. Who knows, they changed the Hammer rules mid-season, why not stretch some of these holes again and cause a choice for these teams as they attack these GIRs?

We have a repeat layout for the first time in TGL history. The course for Match 8 is the same as Match 6. With all of the options available, I'm not quite sure why they chose to repeat a lineup of holes. This is one of the shorter layouts we have seen. The Bay GC and Boston Common Golf are the two longest teams in the league. Letting them bomb away would create some wild entertainment. Five par 5s they can reach in two and two reachable par 4s give us almost half the holes where a team/player can make eagle!

All 14 players competing Monday at the SoFi Center played in the Genesis Invitational. A quick cross-country trip, I sure hope they didn't take a red-eye flight like I did! Just a couple didn't make the cut (Rose, Horschel). A tough four days at Torrey will fatigue even the world's best athletes. These guys have got to be tired coming into these matches. I was on-site in La Jolla, Calif., and it was a battle. Here are the starting lineups:

Match 6:

Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-138) - Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas (Lucas Glover sitting)
Los Angeles Golf Club (+110) - Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala (Collin Morikawa sitting)

Match 7:

Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-120) - Patrick Cantlay, Lucas Glover, Justin Thomas (Billy Horschel)
The Bay Golf Club (-110) - Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Åberg, Min Woo Lee (Shane Lowry)

Match 8:

The Bay Golf Club (+110) - Shane Lowry, Ludvig Åberg, Wyndham Clark (Min Woo Lee)
Boston Common Golf (-138) - Keegan Bradley, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama (Adam Scott)

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Match breakdowns

Match 6

LAGC is in first place because they lead the league in points won in Triples (15!) and H2Hs (5). Considering they have hit less than 60 percent of their GIRs in two matches, we once again see how much short game correlates to winning points. Putting and chipping are above all else the secret sauce of the TGL. These two teams are the shortest off the tee in the league. The absence of Collin Morikawa in the LAGC lineup gives me pause against the best version of the Atlanta Drive. Each player on ADGC has won the FedEx Cup! It’s a stout team that also leads the league in strokes gained/around the green. You know those awkward pitches around the arena will ultimately decide this match.

Missing Morikawa removes GIRs. LAGC is a solid short game team and can putt, but they don't make nearly as many birdies as their opponents. Rose and Horschel missed the cut over the weekend. Fleetwood was a ball-striking star in San Diego, but Cantlay and Thomas played better overall. Theegala seems to be missing something this season. I think the three from Atlanta get after them early. These first three holes have been won or tied 75 percent of the time they have been played. We've seen what happens when smart teams get ahead, and even with the new Hammer rules it is a huge advantage. Throw in Thomas (who hasn't lost a hole in singles) versus Theegala H2H matchup, and Atlanta drives off with this one.

Let's take a deeper dive into the H2H matches.

• Horschel versus Rose: What a Ryder Cup match this would be? They start with a medium-length par 5 called the Serpent. These two practitioners will move their chess pieces down this par 5 and tie. Both fire at the drivable par 4, and it becomes a short game contest. I like Billy Ho from very close range, and he makes Rose walk The Plank with a win.
• Cantlay versus Fleetwood: This is the matchup of the early afternoon. Two very well-rounded players we will very likely see in September go H2H. Both finished top 10 yesterday and on the par-3 14th they will throw darts in close and halve the hole. 135 yards for these two world-class iron players is a tough call on the penultimate hole. I love the matchup on Alpine (Hole 11). Hit the speed slot and gain a bunch of yards on your opponent. Five hundred and thirty-five yards, Cantlay will gain extra distance off the tee and hit the GIR giving him an advantage and the hole.
• Thomas versus Theegala: Theegala has just not brought the same level of ball-striking to 2025 he showed in 2024. Sahith lost strokes in every major category at Torrey Pines. Thomas on the other hand finished in the top 10. Thomas will drop a dart with his wedge on 12 (Craic On). Thomas was first in approach at Genesis. They close with an excellent accuracy contest par 5. Theegala is the only player to have hit this green in two. JT and Sahith both hit the pedestal off the tee and end the match with a halve on the green.

Match 7

We'll get another look at just how good "The Kid," Ludvig Åberg, is. Atlanta Drive starts their second match of the day, and The Bay Club hasn't been in the sim since early January. The way these lineups match up, we get the substitute Lucas Glover against Åberg! The Bay GC is the best driving team, and this may be their best lineup for distance off the tee. Here's the rub against them, when they played against New York in week one the scorecard was 600 yards longer. By shortening the course and turning this into a GIR-fest, ADGC has the upper hand.

If recent form counts for anything, both Clark and Lee lost strokes T2G at Torrey. I know Glover was not at his best, but his ball-striking in a vacuum is much better than Wyndham or Min Woo. I believe ADGC goes 2-0 on Presidents Day and takes control of the league. Triples is going to expose The Bay GC for its lack of consistency on approach. I really see the par 3s as a problem in the first nine holes. Both of these teams can make birdies, but when you compare their birdie to bogey ratio, ADGC has an edge. That's where this league will be won and lost.

Don't count Lucas out against Ludvig. I think that will be the best matchup of this afternoon delight.

• Cantlay versus Clark: Ryder Cup Cantlay in the house ... remember when Patrick carried Clark in Rome? Well they are on different sides this time! Both of these H2H holes are extreme accuracy contests. Clark's length will be curbed if he doesn't hit the grass OTT. I have serious concerns about Wyndham's iron game over Patrick. Cantlay hit 11 percent more of his GIRs in San Diego. With an earlier match under his belt, he's going to take both of these individual holes.
• Glover versus Åberg: I'm sensing there could be a little opportunity to catch Ludvig after a big Sunday night flight. Lucas Glover grabs a great approach shot on Cliffhanger (Hole 14) and knocks it close with a wedge and takes the par 3. The Plank is a perfect Ludvig hole. Smoke a drive, wedge it close and win. These two split their H2H match with one win each.
• Thomas versus Lee: Thomas will get off to a quick start on the par-3 12th hole (Set in Stone) with an accurate approach. He'll win that matchup and then they have Boomerang for the final hole of the match. A tough par 5 to hit in two, these two will tie with a par on a hole where the ADGC will have already secured the win. JT and Min Woo both have incredible short games and it will show on this one.

Match 8

A quick glance at the TGL format and most critics call it a putting contest. The best players in the world competing with no wind and lie changes. They just hit every green and putt like a scramble, right? Well, if you have watched, you know it comes down to more than that! These two teams seem quite evenly matched on paper, but after watching a number of these matches on-site, I believe The Bay Golf Club has an edge and here's why:

Boston Common has played two matches and has yet to win a par 4. It’s the most common hole in golf, and they haven't closed one out in their favor. Part of their issue has come on the greens. BCG ranks last in making putts under 10 feet. Guess what, The Bay GC ranks first in that category having made all five of theirs in Match 1. Playing two matches in a row is also a huge benefit. Getting a feel for the grass and the rotating green complex makes players more comfortable. No different than guys jumping into a team match after not participating in the morning round.

Handicapping simulator golf, I'll look at every detail. Dropping Min Woo Lee and adding Shane Lowry increases TBGC's GIR rate. That's been the real key across the board. If you can hit the most greens, you stand the best chance to win. Boston Common has really struggled to string together great shots. Adding Hideki for the first time lifts their team T2G, but it is also his first experience there. How's that team chemistry going to come together in Triples? It's not like he's played on with either of these guys in the Ryder Cup. For all the above, BCG feels the pressure again to perform and comes up short.

These three H2Hs are going to be so much fun. Saving the best for last on a triple-header day, watch out for some late Hammers as BCG tries to catch up!

• Lowry versus Bradley: These two need the octagon, and not the SoFi Center. I'm concerned about Lowry's lack of success in San Diego on approach. Bradley was a little better and both were below average with the putter. A par 5 (Serpent) to start which really measures accuracy. Both will tie with pars here. The drivable 13th called The Plank favors the more accurate Shane off the tee and his short game. Lowry will win that one close to the water's edge.
• Åberg versus McIlroy: How about this for a final round pairing at the Masters? All eyes will be focused on Alpine. The 535-yard par 4 has an incredible speed slot off the tee. McIlroy has played this hole before and will outdrive Åberg giving him an edge and a win here. Ludvig gets him back on the short par 3 later as he hits it close with a wedge similar to his ace in San Diego.
• Clark versus Matsuyama: The short par-3 12th hole (Craic On) has been tied 75 percent of the time it has been played. The blind tee shot on a par 3 is probably the reason why. Even at 150 yards, I still think they make two pars and move on. Closing with Quick Draw sounds fantastic, but this is a better Triples hole. Players have not struggled to hit the short-cut landing area. These two will be greenside in two and tie again for the final hole of the night.

Match 6,7,8 Cards

Match 6 ADGC vs. LAGC:

Match 6 winner:

• Los Angeles Golf Club (-138 FD)

Match 7 ADGC vs. TBGC:

Match 7 winner:

• Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-120)

Match 8 TBGC vs. BCG:

Match 8 winner:

• The Bay Golf Club (+110 FD)

For more of Keith Stewart’s picks for Monday’s TGL matches, subscribe to his premium newsletter.

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.