TGL 2025: Our PGA pro's best bets for Week 7

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. — Are you not entertained?!?!?! Monday's Presidents Day triple-header took the TGL to another level. Three matches all ended on the final swing. Overtime for the first H2H, Justin Thomas misses an eagle putt on the last against The Bay Golf Club, and Wyndham Clark closes the evening with an impressive eagle putt of his own. The updated HAMMER rules made an incredible difference in scoring and with some savvy strategy kept all the matches very close. Then there was Tuesday night. We whiffed on Jupiter Links. Kevin Kisner should have been replaced by Tony Finau last week and Tiger Woods was still very distracted by the passing of his mother. Seeing both of those players perform early, there was a great opportunity to make some money back with a couple of live Singles wagers.

TGL's schedule gives us three more matches; a double header on Monday and the league leading TBGC on Tuesday. Here we go...

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The format, course, and starting lineups

The TGL format remains the same as our first nine matches. If you missed a couple of matches and need a refresher course, their website does an excellent job of explaining the league rules with quick videos (​​​​​TGL EXPLAINED​​​​​). 🚨 For those have may not have heard about the HAMMER updated rules, here's a link.​ ​TGL Link​​

Bullet points are my friend for these season ending TGL previews. Here's how we are starting each of the matches.

• Cameron Young leads off Match 10 for the New York Golf Club and will be followed by Tony Finau(!) from the Los Angeles Golf Club. Finau is a reserve replacement for LAGC. Both Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood could not participate so Tony was acquired on a one-match contract.
• Justin Thomas leads off Match 11 for the Atlanta Drive Golf Club and will be followed by Keegan Bradley from Boston Common Golf.
• Tom "Sim" Kim leads off Match 12 for the Jupiter Links Golf Club and will be followed by Min Woo Lee from The Bay Golf Club.

Just two weeks remain in the regular season. Each of these matches has significant playoff implications. The top 4 teams in the points standings earn a postseason spot. If Los Angeles GC wins, they are guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. If that happens, due to the New York GC loss, the Bay Golf Club would also be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. Neither LAGC nor NYGC can be eliminated with a loss. In Match 11, if Boston loses, they are not eliminated but would require NYGC and JLGC to lose all their remaining games. If LAGC does win the first match, then Atlanta Drive GC can clinch a spot in the Playoffs with a victory. Tuesday night (Match 12), The Bay GC can clinch a playoff berth with a win if they aren’t in already. Jupiter Links needs to win and also needs some serious help if they have any chance of seeing the postseason.

Keith's "TGL" Keys 🗞️

A couple of key insights you can claim as your own idea at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations.

1. Bunker play: We have seen some wild shots from the bunkers. Inside the ropes intel, they have been working on the sand since Match 1, but still haven't got it right from the player's perspective. Look for that aspect of gameplay to be significantly better in Season 2.
2. Short game scoring: There were 5 (FIVE) hole outs inside the "Greenzone" during Monday's triple-header.
3. Putting wins: The two best teams to date, Los Angeles and The Bay, are also the two best putting teams.

Match 10 provides us with another par 60 scorecard, and another 5,700-yard layout. We start on Flex. One quick side note, New York is the first team to win this hole. We have seen Flex three times before, but when NYGC unloaded on Jupiter Links Tuesday night, they won this one and a bunch more. Understanding the hole outcomes over the course of nine matches helps determine where teams are most likely to score points. For example, Bonnie Link, our second hole this afternoon, has been played five times and never won. We also have the similar nine, 10 par 5 duo and closing par 5 for hole 15. This is one of the shorter layouts we have seen and fits nicely with two teams who secure 70% of their fairways.

We have another brand-new hole to watch in our nightcap. Match 11 breaks the 6,000-yard threshold for the first time in four matches. I like the addition of a little length. These guys should be tested. Match 1 featured 6,400+ yards and may have been too much, I like the feel of 6k looking at this layout. The new hole is Hang Loose, a 578-yard par 5 featured as Hole 4. Pick your Plunder (Hole 9) continues to create unequaled entertainment. We have seen six penalties and just 16.6 percent of players are hitting the green in regulation. Keep your eye on Temple too. Only 16.6 percent of players have hit that GIR. I like this blend of holes better than Match 10. The par 4s are a much better test and one area I would like to see continue being difficult. Par 5s should be huge risk reward decision making fan fodder and the par 3s... well should be a hole in one opportunity.

The scorecard for Match 12 is almost the same as our layout for Match 10. Two holes have been changed from the first match card this week. Hole 8 is Straight Up (Par 4, 416 yards) and Hole 15 is Sterling (Par 5, 554 yards). Measuring 5,809 yards, this is the shortest collection of par 4 tests yet! Both Flex and Bonnie Link are the starting holes. Bonnie Link is a hole that has never been won. In fact, the longest putt made on that hole is 7'11" by Tom Kim. Just so happens if Homa and Kisner can find their way onto the green in two, Kim will be putting. The addition of Straight Up should add to the excitement. The 416-yard par 4 has been won five times in seven match layouts.

Friday's news that Finau was playing is interesting and probably only makes that team better overall. Not to say Tony will only take the place for LAGC, but the addition of a ball striker into the mix presents tremendous intrigue should a couple players become unavailable in the playoffs. Not one of the 18 players competing today and tomorrow played in the Mexico Open. Well rested and ready, here are the starting lineups in order of play for Triples and Singles.

• Match 10
• Los Angeles Golf Club (-120) - Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Sahith Theegala (Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood)
• New York Golf Club (+110) - Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler (Xander Schauffele)
• Match 11
• Boston Common Golf (-115) - Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy (Adam Scott)
• Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-115) - Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay (Lucas Glover)
• Match 12
• The Bay Golf Club (-150) - Min Woo Lee, Shane Lowry, Wyndham Clark (Ludvig Åberg)
• Jupiter Links Golf Club (+115) - Tom Kim, Kevin Kisner, Max Homa (Tiger Woods)

After Tuesday's massacre by an average NYGC lineup, I don't think this number for The Bay GC is close to where it should be. I included their preview today so you can get that match bet in as soon as possible. Even without Åberg in the lineup, we are going to see a lopsided Tuesday tilt again.

Match breakdowns

Match 10

Los Angeles Golf Club leads the TGL in holes won with 20, has more Triples points (16) than any other team, and is tied for the lead in Singles points won (7). In giving up one of their better players, they picked up a really good substitute. Take Theegala out of the lineup and give us Collin, Tony, and Tommy and you have the best team in the league on paper! LAGC has made 82 percent of their putts inside 10' and tied for the league lead in medium putts made. New York GC ranks last in putts made overall.

New York has the ability to bomb away, but both teams are tied in fairway accuracy. With a 5,700-yard layout, NYGC's length doesn't give them as much of an advantage. Each team hits about 65 percent of their GIRs and can score on the par 3s. Weigh it all out, and there's a significant edge for LAGC. The only question left is when to place the "leader after" prop bet.

Here are my leans for the Singles matchups.

• Finau versus Young: I cannot wait to see the two tee shots on Alpine (Hole 13). This par 4 measures 535 yards, it is the hole with the huge speed slot off the tee. The three longest drives in TGL history are 360 yards and all three happened on this hole. Finau's ability to attack on approach after he outdrives the TGL driving distance leader will earn him this hole. The two will tie on Hole 10 as the par 5 Spear has been halved four of the six times it has been played.
• Morikawa versus Fitzpatrick: Collin Morikawa has yet to lose a Singles hole (2-0-2). Matt Fitzpatrick is still looking for his first Singles win (0-2-4). Loot on the Line has been won three times in four matches. Morikawa excels on medium length par 4s and takes this one from Fitzpatrick. The two will tie on Set in Stone as both have been quite good on par 3 tee shots.
• Theegala versus Fowler: Sahith Theegala has played Quick Draw (Hole 15) twice. Rickie Fowler has yet to see this hole and that edge will be enough for Theegala to take one Singles point. On the Rocks is a gap wedge shot for these players. This hole has been used in all nine matches. It has been won five times and tied four. Fowler sticks it tight and wins the short par 3.

Match 11

Boston Common really has their back against the wall. They are starting a lineup of three major champions, and Atlanta Drive is countering three FedEx Cup winners. These are two great lineups and picking a match winner comes down to a couple of elements. ADGC has made 52 percent of their putts inside 30'! Holing out before your opponent is a very successful strategy. Atlanta Drive ranks third in team putting while Boston Common ranks fifth. Although BCG hits a couple more GIRs and fairways, the Drive's scoring ability is the reason they lead Boston significantly in the standings. ADGC sits in third place while BCG is in last.

Sticking with the "Greenzone," Boston Common also ranks last in up and down percentage. Just 7 for 21 (33.3 percent), teams are beating Boston because they get the ball in the hole before them. Atlanta boasts a lineup of three great scorers from inside the live action end of the arena. Justin Thomas leads the league in strokes gained putting (+2.94) and his two partners have made crucial putts as well. Once LAGC wins Match 10, ADGC can clinch a playoff spot with a win. That motivation will be enough to take down Beantown's bottom dwellers.

All hats aside, the last time McIlroy and Cantlay faced off in match play was the closing Saturday Fourball in Rome. I am certain both Rory and Patrick remember that one!

• Bradley versus Thomas: Captain Keegan is coming off four straight Singles wins while Justin Thomas has yet to lose a Singles hole (3-0-3). They start with Quick Draw (par 5, 729 yards). Par 5s are tough to find an edge at this level. Their second H2H hole is Straight Up, a drivable par 4. Bradley is last in the league in driving accuracy. JT will put the ball in position to birdie and use his league leading putting to beat Bradley on Hole 13.
• Matsuyama versus Horschel: Hideki Matsuyama is averaging 321 yards off the tee in TGL; Billy Horschel 303 yards. Alpine is a driving contest, and players can receive a huge advantage on the tee shot. Hideki takes that advantage and the eleventh hole. Both have a flip wedge into On the Rocks (Hole 14) and cannot create any separation. Since neither player has differentiated themselves on the artificial green, they halve the hole.
• McIlroy versus Cantlay: One matchup with Bethpage implications is this one. Neither Cantlay nor McIlroy have distinguished themselves in Singles play. They have a combined 1-5-6 record. I believe that trend will continue. Surprisingly, Oh Chute is a 162-yard par 3 with a GIR rate of just 36%. When it becomes a short-range putting contest, Cantlay takes it as McIlroy has only made four of seven putts from inside 10'. The final hole of the night has only been seen once and tied. Cantlay has played Riptide which is an advantage in TGL. Having seen the hole lessens the edge McIlroy earns off the tee and these two tie the final hole of the night.

Match 12

This preview will be brief. The Bay Golf Club has been a perfect match of skill and swagger. Even with the league MVP Åberg on the bench, the moneyline succinctly shows how much of a favorite they are over Jupiter Links. The reasons are pretty simple. The Bay GC leads the TGL in driving distance and driving accuracy. Their average drive is 318-yards, and they hit the fairway 77 percent of the time. They are ranked first in greens in regulation at a 78 percent clip and if they do miss the putting surface, they are also ranked first in scrambling (78 percent). It is no wonder they lead the standings with six points.

Jupiter Links GC is last in driving distance and fifth in accuracy off the tee. JLGC has only managed to hit 42 percent of their GIRs and they are last in scrambling. I really feel for Tom Kim. He has tried his best to rally the squad, but his teammates have not performed. They will try a new lineup without Tiger Woods but replacing him with a work in progress Max Homa won't help. The Bay GC has earned 13 points in Triples and seven in Singles through three matches. Conversely, JLGC has won four points in Triples and three in Singles. Lay the money and stick with Silicon Valley; The Bay GC by 10 on Tuesday.

These three Singles matchup look brutal for Jupiter on paper. These are world class players, so not every hole will be won, but there are some definite edges worth considering here with a calculated wager.

• Lee versus Kim: Let's go right to Alpine (Hole 13). Min Woo Lee has such an advantage off the tee. He'll be 50+ yards in front of Tom Kim. Even with Kim's accuracy, that is an edge Lee can take advantage of. Spear (Hole 10) is a three-shot par 5 for Kim and reachable in two for Lee. Kim has been great in every match, and he'll find a way to tie this hole, but it's a much tougher challenge for him.
• Lowry versus Kisner: Where Tom Kim faces two tough hole challenges against the longer Lee, Kevin Kisner has the benefit of playing two easier holes against a much better player in Shane Lowry. Loot on the Line is a medium length par 4. Since it requires two shots, I'll give the edge to Lowry. The more you make Kisner hit the ball, the better it is for The Bay; Lowry takes Hole 11. Set in Stone is a medium length par 3 where both hit the green, two putt and make par - halve.
• Clark versus Homa: Max Homa lacks a ton of confidence right now in his game and Wyndham Clark loves playing TGL golf.​ ​Listen to Wyndham​​. Funny, that other voice sounded familiar as well... Clark has been overlooked by Åberg's ascent this season, but he's been great in the SoFi Center. Wyndham is 4-0-2 in Singles, putted extremely well, and has a significant advantage over Homa off the tee. I'm taking Wyndham to win both of his holes.

It's going to be a busy week in Palm Beach Gardens! The Cognizant Classic is taking place just down the road from the SoFi Center. RTL will be on-site for both all week along with another killer edition of the Golf Pro Betting Show. Make sure to tune in Tuesday afternoon at 3:00pm ET as DFS pro Matt Wiley and I break down the PGA TOUR. Between RTL's access and their industry leading analytics it's too expensive to miss it.

Match 10,11,12 Cards

Match 10 LAGC vs. NYGC

Match 10 winner:

• Los Angeles Golf Club (-120)

Match 11 BCG vs. ADGC

Match 11 winner:

• Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-115)

Match 12 TBGC vs. JLGC

Match 12 winner:

• The Bay Golf Club (-150)

​Link to Fanduel odds

For more of Keith Stewart’s picks for Monday’s TGL matches, subscribe to his premium newsletter.

Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.