Betting Analysis
Shriners Children's Open picks 2024: Why Beau Hossler will finally break through in Vegas
A week after getting a look at a brand-new PGA Tour venue in Black Desert Resort, we're back at a familiar site - TPC Summerlin. None of these PGA Tour events are easy to handicap, but it sure helps when you've got some historical data to go off unlike last week.
Some of that data has us looking at some guys in great form who also happen to have great history in Sin City. One of those guys came extremely close to a maiden tour victory a few weeks ago, and he seems long overdue to finally get it done.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of TPC Summerlin, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Golf Podcast, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open.
Shriners Children’s Open picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Beau Hossler (30-1, FanDuel) — Beau has been knocking at the door for his first PGA Tour win for too long and is due to break through. He enters this week with as much confidence as anybody, and this is the kind of short, putter-heavy layout that should suit his game.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Tom Hoge (35-1, FanDuel) — The Hoge chasing a win world tour has a Vegas stop this week. Top 15s two of the last three years at Summerlin while gaining on the greens in four of his past five trips. This jibes with his only appearance of the swing season in Napa where he gained over 11 strokes on the field between irons and putting.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Taylor Pendrith (22-1, FanDuel) — Driver hasn’t been the most vital club at TPC Summerlin in recent years, and Pendrith leads this field in combined strokes-gained/approach, around-the-green, and putting over the last 50 rounds, according to datagolf. Pendrith enters with five consecutive top-25 results and has had good irons and putting in each of them.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Beau Hossler (30-1, FanDuel) — Prior to the Procore, I did some research on the best performers in the fall season for the past two years. Beau Hossler is inside the top 10 for strokes-gained/Fall in this field. It definitely makes sense this week as Hossler’s history is strong in Sin City. In six career TPC Summerlin visits, Beau has gained an average of five shots per start. Following a runner up at Sanderson and an 11th place in Utah, Hossler is ready to handle some very high expectations amongst the bright lights of Las Vegas.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Seamus Power (33-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The Irishman lives in Vegas now, and he’s been playing some great golf. He finished T-11 in Utah, gaining almost 1.5 strokes per round on approach. And he’s been a positive putter since July ... that’s a deadly combo on a shorter, wedge- and putter-fest like we know TPC Summerlin is. Plus, as our caddie dished, the early-late wave is going to have an advantage this week—another reason to love Power in this home game.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Harry Hall (40-1, FanDuel) — Hall already acquired a taste for victory back in July at the ISCO Championship. Now he gets to play a home game at TPC Summerlin, where he’s finished 26th or better in each of the last three seasons. If not for a final-round 74 in Utah, he likely finishes top 10 last week at the Black Desert Championship, so he’s already got one fairly solid start under his belt this Fall.
Andy Lack, Inside Golf podcast: Tom Hoge (35-1, FanDuel) — Tom Hoge is one of the best approach players in this field, and he raises his baseline even further on shorter golf courses. Outside of his four top-25 finishes at TPC Summerlin, Hoge has also performed admirably on many of the comparative courses I am weighing this week, including PGA West, Pebble Beach, and Silverado, and he is coming off a seventh-place finish at the Procore Championship where he gained 6.2 strokes on approach.
Past results: The panel finished the summer hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
Shriners Children’s Open picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Daniel Berger (66-1, BetMGM) — As is often the case when guys are coming back from extended layoffs, Berger has struggled to put four rounds together—but he’s showing the game is there and this could be the week he puts it all together.
Mayo: Daniel Berger (66-1, BetMGM) — Went to the Berger well last week off a strong performance in Jackson. It started and ended quite mediocrely, but we saw the flashes in between. Over his past two starts Berger has gained a stroke or more on approach in five of the eight rounds while sitting top five with his driving stats. He’s gained in both appearances on the greens at Summerlin, too.
Gdula: Andrew Putnam (60-1, FanDuel) — Putnam owns three top-20 finishes at TPC Summerlin over the last five years and is quite good from 100 to 150 yards, which is a high-frequency range this week. He’s another archetype who can play well here, as he’s outside the top 100 in strokes-gained/off-the-tee but second in the other three stats combined.
Stewart: Harris English (40-1, FanDuel) — Harris English is one of the best players in this field. He performed beautifully in Utah gaining over five strokes on the greens and another four strokes tee-to-green. English is ranked 54th on the FedEx Fall list. A win secures his signature spot for the remainder of the Fall series. On a course where you need a smooth off-the-tee game, target-locked wedges, and a scorching hot putter, Harry E checks all the above boxes. Not many in this field have four career wins. Take the talent in Vegas and let’s cash at the window.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Carson Young (125-1, Bet365) — The young South Carolina native appeared to find something with the putter last week in Utah, finishing T-11 bolstered by gaining five strokes on the greens. He’ll see similar bentgrass greens this week, and if he keeps up his stellar ball-striking numbers, he could contend again.
Powers, Golf Digest: Rico Hoey (100-1, BetRivers) — Was on Hoey last week in Utah where he gained over five strokes tee-to-green and tied for 21st. And now he’s at an even better number. Can’t pass up taking one more shot on the man my other pick to win, Harry Hall, took down in a playoff at the ISCO Championship over the summer.
Lack: Andrew Putnam (60-1, FanDuel) — Andrew Putnam checks all the boxes I am looking for this week at the Shriners. He’s a great wedge player with a ton of approach upside, and one of the better Bentgrass putters in this field. Putnam has already recorded three top-20 finishes in seven appearances at TPC Summerlin, and he is also coming off a top-25 finish at the Alfred Dunhill where he gained over six strokes on approach.
Shriners Children’s Open picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Tom Kim (12-1, BetMGM) — It’s wishful thinking for Tom to go three in a row. Last year’s repeat was one thing, but it’s too much to ask in a talented field.
Mayo: Keith Mitchell (33-1, BetRivers) — He had his chance. And blew it. Best to back him again when he starts falling down the odds board in a few months.
Gdula: Beau Hossler (30-1, FanDuel) — I’m monitoring Hossler’s irons, which have been well above his baseline in the last two starts (a solo second and a T-11). History says that’ll trend down soon, so his odds look shorter than they should be at this point.
Stewart: Tom Kim (12-1, FanDuel) — I cannot forget watching Tom Kim’s season ending in Memphis. I walked those last few holes with his group and couldn’t believe how quickly it all went awry. Fast forward to the Presidents Cup and he only secured 1.5 points for the International side. Winning will require sub-par scores, and Kim’s putter was cold to close the season. He lost strokes on the greens in his last four starts. Combined with a shaky off-the-tee game, I’ll pass on the two-time defending champion.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (33-1, BetRivers) — TPC Summerlin will take driver out of Mitchell’s hands, which means it’s not the course to bet him.
Powers, Golf Digest: Davis Thompson (28-1, DraftKings) — Love me some DT but top-three favorite treatment off a long break seems a little too rich for my blood.
Lack: Keith Mitchell (33-1, BetRivers) — Keith Mitchell is coming off an incredibly disappointing missed cut last week at the Black Desert Championship as the tournament favorite, and I still believe he is over-priced this week as well. Mitchell has missed four of his five cuts at TPC Summerlin, with zero finishes inside the top 60.
Shriners Children’s Open picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Mav McNealy (+100) over Matt McCarty (Bet365) — McCarty’s whirlwind win last week might very well cause a hangover, particularly on a completely different type of course this week. I’ll go with the Vegas resident.
Mayo: J.J Spaun (-110) over Jhonattan Vegas (Bet365) — Vegas has been living off his putter the past few weeks, masking some terrible iron play. You’ll need your irons at Summerlin.
Gdula: J.J. Spaun (-120) over Maverick McNealy (FanDuel) — Spaun has played TPC Summerlin well in the past (three top 15s in the last six years) and is a substantially better iron player than McNealy, who has three missed cuts in five starts here.
Stewart: Seamus Power (-105) over Davis Thompson (BetMGM) — Not many are playing better than Seamus Power on the PGA Tour this fall. Coming off a career ball-striking week in Utah, Power returns home to Las Vegas. T-11 in his last two starts, the game is in mid-season form. Davis Thompson needs to knock the rust off quickly. We haven’t seen the John Deere winner since mid-August. I’m taking Power’s consistent play over Thompson’s talent after a long break.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Harry Hall (+110) over Kurt Kitayama (Bet365) — In this battle of Vegas guys, I’ll go with the TPC Summerlin member. Kitayama can get erratic off the tee, which might put him behind the eight-ball and out of attack mode here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Seamus Power (-105) over Davis Thompson (BetMGM) — Easy copy of Keith’s homework here. Power has been a top-11 machine over the last few months while we haven’t seen Thompson with a club in his hands since the BMW. Wrong guy is favored here.
Lack: Beau Hossler (-130) over Keith Mitchell (BetOnline) — This is an easy one, as Beau Hossler is playing some great golf of late, and Mitchell is my fade of the week. Outside of Hossler’s great recent form, he has also recorded multiple top-10 finishes at TPC Summerlin, including a seventh-place finish last year. Mitchell’s form and course history on the other hand, leaves a lot to be desired.
Matchup Results from the Black Desert Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (Power (-110) over Kitayama); Gdula: 1 for 1 (B.Griffin (-110) over Kirk); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Hall (+100) over Novak); Powers: PUSH (Smalley (-110) over Svensson); Caddie: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 24-12-2 (up 9.12 units); Gdula: 22-13-3 (up 6.24 units); Caddie: 22-15-0 (up 4.84 units); Hennessey: 19-14-5 (up 3.47 units); Powers: 16-17-4 (down 1.34 units); Mayo: 17-20-1 (down 3.39 units); Stewart: 15-21-2 (down 7.01 units)
Shriners Children’s Open picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Ben Kohles (+900, Bet365) — These are attractive odds for someone playing so well. The irons and wedges have been hot, and that precision will play well here.
Mayo: J.J. Spaun (+375, Bet365) — Spaun had one the blip at Sanderson Farms which led to a WD. He returned last week with a T-25, where he once again gained more than six strokes tee-to-green. If he can get a spike putting week to go along with the superb ball-striking he can build off his three career top 15s in Vegas.
Gdula: Eric Cole (+400, FanDuel) — Cole is a short hitter (and also not that accurate), but the rest of his game is elite by comparison. He ranks third in this field over the last 50 rounds in combined strokes-gained/approach through putting. Cole also was T-3 here last year while leading the field in strokes-gained/ tee-to-green.
Stewart: Adam Hadwin (+450, BetRivers) — We are not going to overthink the Fall series. Adam Hadwin has four top 10s at TPC Summerlin in his last five starts. Hadwin also has an excellent record playing the other desert venues on tour. Admittingly, Adam was off for much of the summer season. He did finish inside the top 50 and last played at the BMW Championship. A couple months to regain his form and inspired by the Presidents Cup he missed, Hadwin returns to the PGA Tour at one of his most successful settings.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: JT Poston (+400, Bet365) — Poston has killed TPC Summerlin in the past, finishing T-3 last year and gaining nearly 15 strokes on approach in his last four starts here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Lower (+650, Bet365) — Lower had been trending nicely up until last week’s missed cut, though a closer look shows he missed it right on the number and just had an off week with his irons. This week he can rely on his wedge game and his Bentgrass putting and hang around that top 10 late on Sunday.
Lack: Daniel Berger (+600, DraftKings) — Daniel Berger might not be all the way back, but he is certainly trending in the right direction. Berger has now gained strokes in all four major categories in his last two starts and is traveling to a golf course that should accentuate his elite wedge play. This is a great opportunity to buy early on a pedigree player who is on the upswing.
Top-10 results from the Black Desert Championship: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Lucas Glover +400); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 12 for 38 (up 64.85 units); Gdula: 7 for 38 (down 6.1 units); Mayo: 7 for 38 (down 6.5 units); Powers: 7 for 38 (down 8.1 units); Stewart: 7 for 38 (down 8.42 units); Caddie: 7 for 37 (down 9.93 units); Lack: 7 for 38 (down 15.05 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports