Betting Analysis
RSM Classic picks 2024: No one is more 'due' than Eric Cole
Just like that, we've reached the official end of yet another action-packed season on the PGA Tour. There were plenty of highs, like Stephen Hennessey's incredible top 10 record and our 15 outright winners as a panel on the year, and some lows, too (everyone else's top-10 record). We appreciate you all for reading, tailing or fading, and continuing to help us make this the best betting column in the golf space.
While we're certainly ready to shut it down until the Sentry, we're giving it everything we got for one more week at the RSM Classic. There would be no better way to head into Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday season than with a juicy winning ticket in our pockets. Let's cash one more in 2024.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Sea Island, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Golf Podcast, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 RSM Classic.
RSM Classic picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Eric Cole (40-1, FanDuel) — This tends to be an event where guys break through for their first win, and Cole has been knocking on the door the past two years. He’s comfortable here coming off a T-3 last year, and on a heavy wedge course, you have to love his chances.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Eric Cole (40-1, FanDuel) — At his peak, Cole has the secret sauce for Sea Island: spike irons and putting. Driving distance can always be beneficial, obviously, but the RSM is another in a string of recent events where its impact is mitigated.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Davis Thompson (22-1, FanDuel) — Thompson – outside of Ludvig Aberg – has the most complete game in the field. He’s top 25 in the field over each golfer’s last 50 rounds in all three strokes-gained/tee-to-green stats (not even Ludvig can say that). Thompson also is a good putter. I think he can wipe away poor course history this week.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Mackenzie Hughes (40-1, BetRivers) — It was a rough Sunday in Bermuda for Mackenzie Hughes. It happens, and to be honest, I see it as a benefit. Had Hughes closed well in Bermuda his odds would be half of the current number. Mac has two runner-up finishes in his last three starts at the RSM. He fired 17 under par last year on the weekend and has played great this Fall finishing fourth at the Procore and eighth at Sanderson. With a solid history at Sea Island and an even better Bermudagrass putter I’m singing ‘O Canada on Sunday.
Watch the below video with Read The Line and SportsGrid for PGA professional Keith Stewart's full 2024 RSM Classic betting anaylsis:
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Lucas Glover (45-1, BetMGM) — I’m surprised this number is this high. Glover’s two starts removed from gaining more than 13 strokes on approach in Utah, one of two T-3 finishes in a row, and he’s made nine starts at Sea Island in his career. He plays a ton out of Federica Golf Club just up the road, and we know he kills it on Bermudagrass. He’s a proven winner as compared to many of the names in this range.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Harris English (33-1, BetMGM) — I hesitate to just blindly back Sea Island guys, because it’s never that easy, but Harry E has quietly gone sixth, ninth and 14th in his last three starts. Good form plus a little home-field advantage (English does have six top-30 finishes here, including a sixth) has me all in on him at 33-1. Go Dawgs.
Andy Lack, Inside Golf podcast: Seamus Power (33-1, FanDuel) — I will continue to ride Seamus Power until the wheels fall off, and the Irishman shot one of the best rounds on the course on Sunday to rise the leaderboard into a tie for 23rd at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Now Power returns to a golf course where he finished fourth and fifth in his last two appearances, and he always remains a strong option on shorter, coastal, windy tracks.
Past results: The panel finished the summer hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
RSM Classic picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Michael Kim (70-1, FanDuel) — I’ve seen Michael grinding as much as anybody this fall, and he’s seeing improvements. His game’s in great shape, and he knows he has what it takes to win on the PGA Tour.
Mayo: Joe Highsmith (80-1, BetMGM) — With four top-20 finishes in five fall starts, Highsmith’s putter has started to catch up to his recent run of hot ball-striking. I’m guessing he got buried on the odds board this week because he decided to skip Bermuda last week to get some rest.
Gdula: Jacob Bridgeman (65-1, FanDuel) — Bridgeman continues to play some good golf and has finished top 15 in four events since August and in two straight events. In a putting-heavy event, Bridgeman can do enough to make a push for the win.
Stewart: Eric Cole (40-1, FanDuel) — Somehow, Eric Cole has slipped through the content cracks. The last time we saw the former Rookie of the Year he finished sixth at the ZOZO. Cole is an incredible wedge player and putter. He can go really deep on these two courses and has proven it; he finished third last year. Cole’s a top 10 putter and top 15 approach player in the field, don’t you forget about him.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Greyson Sigg (70-1, FanDuel) — I’ll be on Ben Griffin and Eric Cole, but at nearly double the price you have someone with a statistical profile that’s pretty dang close to those guys. Sigg is on a heater in the fall, with a T-4, T-9, T-11 and a T-23 in four of his past five starts. The St. Simons Island resident also finished top 10 at the RSM Classic last year. The putter let him down last week—if we get a spike week on these familiar greens, Sigg could very well be hoisting the trophy.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Lower (55-1, BetRivers) — Lower has the hot hand and this is the last opportunity to bet on him this Fall. Why the hell not? Especially at this number. You’d think after back-to-back top fives in a weak field that he’d be in the 30s range. Instead we’re getting a discount on a guy who seems to be on the precipice of a career-altering breakthrough. And while he has no good results to speak of at RSM, part of the reason he’s played so well the last few weeks is because he thrives in the wind. There will be more wind this week in Sea Island.
Lack: Greyson Sigg (70-1, FanDuel) — Greyson Sigg was a headline selection for me last week at the Bermuda Championship, and I have zero intention in hopping off now at a golf course where Sigg resides and finished eighth last year. Outside of his strong comfortability and course fit at Sea Island, Sigg also ranked first in the field last week in greens in regulation percentage and is playing some of the best golf of his career.
RSM Classic picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — I don’t see betting Denny this week, considering we haven’t seen much of him this fall and a bunch of other players in this range have been playing really good golf. It’ll be tough for Denny to beat all of them.
Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (9-1, FanDuel) — Obviously Ludvig has enough talent to overcome this field but in his first start back from knee injury as the overwhelming favorite is a bit too rich for me.
Gdula: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — I’m fine with targeting short-game specialists this week because of how important putting is, but of the favorites, McCarthy still stands out as a poor ball-striker. So, we can get putting with better tee-to-green numbers at similar odds.
Stewart: Brian Harman (22-1, DraftKings) — I sat through Brian Harman’s press conference yesterday and listened to him explain all the things he has done with his offseason. In case you didn’t hear him or read the transcript, none of those activities were playing golf. The longtime Sea Island resident loves to support the local community and is playing this week, but in his words, he has not prepared. His skill set is good enough to keep him relevant on his home courses, but getting to 20 under par is a stretch for the 2023 Open Champion.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Mackenzie Hughes (40-1, BetRivers) — Hughes is the only player at 40-1 or lower who is below average and losing to this field in this field on approaches from every bucket 50 to 175 yards. That’s not the type of player I want to bet on at Sea Island.
Powers, Golf Digest: Brian Harman (22-1, DraftKings) — If there were ever a venue Brian Harman could roll up to and top 20 in his sleep, it would be this one. But he’s made just one start since the BMW Championship in August, and that came in a random Asian Tour event a full month ago. Again, I’m sure he’ll play fine, but I bet on him just rolling out of bed and winning at 22-1.
Lack: Denny McCarthy (25-1, FanDuel) — I am generally a Denny McCarthy fan, but the market consistently over-values him, and 25-11 is too steep of a price to pay on a player with such little win equity. Despite being one of the better putters in this field, McCarthy has still failed to prove he is a strong enough ball-striker to win at this level, and I certainly won’t be backing him to do so as one of the tournament favorites.
RSM Classic picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Eric Cole (-120) over J.J. Spaun (Bet365) — I’m all in on Cole this week, and Spaun plays his best golf on the West Coast.
Mayo: Kevin Yu (-110) over Ryo Hisatsune (Coolbet) — Hisatsune’s been OK since his near miss at the Wyndham, but he has no top 20s in eight starts between PGA and DPWT since. Kevin Yu’s been hit or miss, but the hits have been a win and T-16 in four starts.
Gdula: Ben Griffin (-115) over Mackenzie Hughes (FanDuel) — Griffin is playing some strong golf (as is Hughes), but Griffin is a better long-term ball-striker – and not a bad putter in his own right.
Stewart: Davis Thompson (+125) over Ludvig Aberg (BetMGM) — Ludvig Aberg was another elite player who has not played golf this Fall. We last saw Aberg at the Tour Championship. One week later on September 5, he had knee surgery and didn’t take full swings again until late October. Davis Thompson played in one event (Shriners) this Fall and finished fifth. The Sea Island superstar has made six straight cuts since winning the John Deere. Thompson is Fall-tested and ready for the final week where I believe Ludvig may be looking ahead to 2025.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Adam Svensson (-125) over Keith Mitchell (Bet365) — Mitchell’s a Sea Island guy but doesn’t have a top 10 at the RSM, and that checks out because it’s not a course where he can let his elite off-the-tee game differentiate himself. He has also lost strokes putting in three of his past four starts here, including a MC in 2023. Svensson does his best work on shorter courses and won here in 2022 and finished T-5 last year.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (+100) over Sepp Straka (Bet365) — I know Sepp is an adopted Georgia boy but he’s actually never had success in this event and he’s coming in off quite a long layoff. Meanwhile, Patrick Rodgers has come close to winning this event in the past and just finished inside the top 10 in Bermuda.
Lack: Greyson Sigg (-145) over Gary Woodland (BetOnline) — I don’t typically like laying this much juice in a matchup, but Greyson Sigg is one of my favorite plays on the board this week with both a high floor and the upside to win this event. Woodland, on the other hand, still carries massive question marks surrounding his putting ability.
Matchup Results from the Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Lack: 1 for 1 (Griffin (-130) over Stevens); Gdula: 1 for 1 (McNealy (-105) over Power); Powers: 1 for 1 (Berger (+110) over Hughes); Hennessey: PUSH (Vegas (-120) over Todd); Caddie: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 27-12-3 (up 11.43 units); Gdula: 24-15-3 (up 6.06 units); Caddie: 24-17-0 (up 4.79 units); Hennessey: 20-15-7 (up 3.3 units); Powers: 18-19-4 (down 1.09 units); Mayo: 20-22-1 (down 1.52 units); Stewart: 17-23-2 (down 7.21 units)
RSM Classic picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Ludvig Aberg (+130, DraftKings) — The defending champ will be right there on Sunday, injuries or not—he’s too good not to be. It should be an easy top 10 for him.
Mayo: Jacob Bridgeman (+600, FanDuel) — A top-20 bet is probably the proper way to bet Bridgeman every week considering he has posted five top 20s in his past eight starts without coming inside the top 10 in any of them, yet, like Cole, has that spike putting upside needed to win a birdie fest like RSM. His irons are generally the reason his upside is capped. It’s not that they’re bad, they just never stay crisp enough for four days. But a great flat stick can always trump that if it gets hot enough, and we’ve seen that from Bridgeman. He’s gained at least two strokes putting in seven of his last 10 measured events.
Gdula: Matt Wallace (+320, FanDuel) — Matt Wallace is in hot form on the DP World Tour and will need to transition that to a shorter, tighter setup than his game is best suited for. Still, there’s room for error, given how good his form is of late compared to most of the field.
Stewart: Denny McCarthy (+350, Bet365) — If you need a putter to perform at Sea Island, then Denny McCarthy has to be a key part of your betting card. The PGA Tour’s finest flat stick aficionado has three top 10s at the RSM Classic in the last five years. McCarthy continues to get better each season. His first win is coming quickly, but until that happens, I know he will contend again this week and cash with the 10 places.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ryan Moore (+1400, Bet365) — The veteran is still elite with his wedges, and this short course is still one he could excel at, evidenced by his T-9 finish last year. He’s playing some good golf to end 2024, faltering on the weekend in Bermuda but he hovered around a top 10 going into Sunday.
Powers, Golf Digest: Bud Cauley (+700, FanDuel) — Cauley has just one top 10 since making his return at the WMPO last February, but it came recently at the Sanderson Farms. Two weeks later he popped off with his irons, gaining nearly five strokes on approach at the Shriners. History here is solid, too, with three top 20s seven appearances.
Lack: Eric Cole (+400, FanDuel) — I always have interest in Eric Cole on shorter, easier golf courses that devalue elite driving ability in exchange for wedge play and putting, and Sea Island certainly falls into that category. It should not come as a surprise that Cole finished top five at this event last year, and he is coming off an impressive top-10 finish at the Zozo Championship.
Top-10 results from the Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Patrick Rodgers +320); Powers: 1 for 1 (Patrick Rodgers +320); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 13 for 42 (up 66.35 units); Caddie: 8 for 41 (down 0.93 units); Gdula: 9 for 42 (down 1.3 units); Mayo: 8 for 42 (down 6.3 units); Powers: 8 for 42 (down 7.9 units); Stewart: 8 for 42 (down 12.42 units); Lack: 8 for 42 (down 14.45 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports