CHARLOTTE — There’s one round left in the PGA Championship, and Thursday’s weird leaderboard has given way to … well, still a pretty weird leaderboard. However, with Scottie Scheffler holding a three-shot lead, some order seems to be restored. The World No. 1 is joined by some pretty unlikely characters, but look a little further down, and you see some scary names like Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau still in the picture. Granted, Scheffler looks like an unstoppable force right now—going five under on his last five holes Saturday to post an impressive 65—but golf is a funny game, and everyone below has at least a decent shot. Let's go down the list of contenders by score, outlining the pros and cons of each—why they'll win, and why they won't.
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Matthieu Pavon (-5)
Why he'll win: Drives the ball with a vengeance, makes birdies in clusters and is a proven tour winner. Perhaps this is the year the ghost of Jean Van de Velde gets exorcised and we have our first French grand slam winner since Arnaud Massy in 1907. Aux armes, citoyens!
Why he won't win: He got Green Mile'd so hard on Saturday, finishing bogey-bogey-bogey to go from a threatening eight under to a disappointing five under. You don't recover from that, especially with the World No. 1 six shots ahead of you. Even the cockeyed romantic in Paris can't write a script that ends with Pavon holding the Wanamaker.
Matt Fitzpatrick (-5)
Maddie Meyer/PGA of America
Why he'll win: Fitzpatrick has truly got his groove back with the irons and is sitting pretty at sixth place for the tournament in SG/approach. That means he'll be dropping it close all day Sunday and just needs some heat to come off the ole putter to make a serious run.
Why he won't win: Can I just say "because he's too far behind Scottie Scheffler" for every player on this until Scheffler himself? [Checks with editors] No, I cannot. The truth is, he just isn't driving the ball well enough to put up a big score at this kind of course, especially with the firmer conditions that seem imminent on Sunday. I can't imagine anything much better than a 68 like he shot on Thursday and Friday, and there are too many people (like Scottie Scheffler!) between him and the lead.
Keegan Bradley (-5)
Alex Slitz
Why he'll win: Murphy's Law states that the funniest thing to happen this season is for Bradley to make the Ryder Cup team and throw the entire organizational structure of Team USA into disarray, and this feels like the stars aligning to put the screws to America. He'll shoot 59 and clinch his spot.
Why he won't win: Honestly, the guy has been super solid across all metrics so far but hasn't quite buried enough putts. I think he can truly go low tomorrow, but I do not think he can go low enough to make up six strokes on Scheffler.
Tony Finau (-5)
Why he'll win: At the moment, Finau presents a profile a lot like Fitzpatrick's: A guy who hasn't been his usual self for a while but is hitting the crap out of his irons (first in the field in strokes gained). He's been fine, not great, at both driving and putting, but there's no reason he can't improve on his 70-69-69 start to the tournament.
Why he won't win: Not only has it been a while since he's been in contention, but for all his major top-10s, he's never quite had the closing touch. Pretend he shoots a 32 on the front … do we really believe he's going to close? Psychologically, if nothing else, this doesn't feel like the right moment for a breakthrough.
Bryson DeChambeau (-5)
Warren Little
Why he'll win: This is by far the most dangerous of the five-under crowd, as demonstrated by his five under start through 15 holes on Saturday. That vaulted him into a tie for the lead. The way he drives, and the way he has putted through three days (11th by SG) gives him a chance to go super low. A few Scottie missteps, and he's right in the mix.
Why he won't win: The dude blew it, full stop, and he probably knows it. After that terrific start, the Green Mile ate him alive. At eight under, Bryson would be super scary, even three shots behind Scheffler. At five under, and with negative momentum carrying him into Sunday, he's a dead man walking.
Jhonattan Vegas (-6)
Andrew Redington
Why he'll win: It felt like a fluke when Vegas shot a 64 on Thursday, but the man has hung around! Yes, the putter got a little balky Saturday, and yes, he's missed some opportunities after reaching 10 under, but he hasn't collapsed, and his appearance at the top of this leaderboard out of nowhere feels a little like destiny for the 40-year-old. We already know he can go super low here, so why not again?
Why he won't win: It felt like a fluke when Vegas shot a 64 on Thursday, and … it was. His putting was off the charts, but he's been nowhere close to that standard since, and as much respect as he deserves for clinging to the top-10, he's not getting back to that place. 64-70-73 is not a positive trend, and there will be no magic reversal Sunday.
Si Woo Kim (-6)
Andrew Redington
Why he'll win: You saw it at the Presidents Cup last fall, and you even saw it at the Presidents Cup three years ago at Quail Hollow: this guy loves a big moment. Is he the most talented player in the world? No. But can he deliver in the clutch? Yes. The putting stats alone (fourth in SG) show that he can catch fire when it matters. No, he's never won a major, or even come close, but look what he did at the 2017 Players when he got close—a comprehensive win. He's just been waiting for the right moment to catch lightning in a bottle, and tomorrow, the moment arrives.
Why he won't win: He can't hit the ball far enough. Oops. If the man makes about 200 feet of putts, I can see him as the faintest possible dark horse candidate. Even then, he's probably doomed to the Scheffler meat grinder.
Jon Rahm (-6)
David Cannon
Why he'll win: Starting with his press conference on Tuesday, there's a better vibe around Rahm than we've seen at majors in some time, and the reason is simple—his swing is back. He made seven birdies on Saturday, and if he can clean up the bogeys, a 65 or even better is not out of the question come Sunday, particularly because the greatest tool in his bag right now is the driver. He's No. 1 in SG/off the tee, and there's no better attribute to have at Quail Hollow. If he can rediscover the ferocity of his glory days, he's the most menacing man on the leaderboard.
Why he won't win: I actually think Rahm is poised nicely to capture a major this year, but it's not this one. Forgetting Scheffler for a moment, it's a fact of life no matter how great you've been in the past, a lull like he's experienced calls for one or two times under the gun before he "remembers" how to win. Along with his seven birdies, he carded three bogeys on Saturday, and my bet is it will be a one-step-forward-one-step-back kind of round with a lot of highlights but nothing close to a win.
J.T. Poston (-7)
Why he'll win: Irons and putters, baby. He's third in each category in strokes gained, so all he's got to do is keep it in the fairway off the tee and make birdies galore. It's so easy, when I put it that way!
Why he won't win: The Postman doesn't deliver on Sundays. Actually, that's just a cute line, and the fact is that Poston has three wins on the PGA Tour. The problem is, he's 159th this year by driving distance, and the reason he's not making more birdies despite stellar iron and putter play is that he's too far away from the hole too often on a really long course. That puts a ceiling on what he can do. Consider this: the guy has only made four bogeys all week, which is best in the field. Why isn't he leading? Because he can't launch it with the big boys, which means he can't go much lower than 68 tomorrow.
Davis Riley (-7)
Why he'll win: Don't forget, first and foremost, that the admittedly nondescript Riley can win. He took down the Colonial last year with players like Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley and, yes, Scottie Scheffler chasing him down, so he's not going to wilt under the bright lights. Now, granted, the PGA Championship is a different stage than Colonial, but if you're betting on the very steady Riley to collapse, hold your money. He keeps getting better as the week goes along, and all it's going to take is a slight stumble from Scheffler to get guys like Riley within a breath of the lead.
Why he won't win: Well, for all my tough talk exactly one paragraph ago, he's never been in a situation remotely close to this. T-13 is his best finish at a major, he's only been so-so in form this year, and he's ranked 100th in the world. It's a testament to him that he's made it this far, but right now he kind of looks like the coyote in the old cartoons who keeps running on thin air after zooming past the cliff's edge, but is bound to look down pretty soon.
Alex Noren (-8)
Darren Carroll/PGA of America
Why he'll win: Not only is he the closest to Scheffler, but he closed with a spectacular flourish, going four under through his last five holes to earn his way into the final group. Has Noren been scintillating in majors? Absolutely not, with just two career top-10s. Is he putting the lights out and lighting it up with his irons? Absolutely. Does he have the preternatural cold-blooded serenity under pressure of all those Swedish detectives investigating ritual murders in the noir shows I watch? Maybe!
Why he won't win: This is the most intense pressure he'll face in his entire career (he’s still never won on the PGA Tour), and I'm not so sure being in the final group with Scheffler will be helpful, particularly if the American gets off to a hot or even neutral start. On top of that, this is only the second tournament he’s played in 2025 after suffering from a myriad of injuries in the off season. This feels like a 73 or 74 and a respectable top-10, but not a win.
Scottie Scheffler (-11)
Jared C. Tilton
Why he'll win: He's the best player in the world, he's in the best form, he's clutch as hell, he closed Saturday like a man possessed, and he has a three-shot lead on a group of players with very little recent major experience among them. This is inevitable. He's winning. He is an absolute force of nature, and Rory's lucky he was just a week or two away from re-establishing greatness at Augusta.
Why he won't win: Maybe Det. Bryan Gillis will come over for some ravioli tonight.