Betting Analysis
Mexico Open picks 2025: Why we're not betting on a Patrick Rodgers bounce back
At long last, the panel is in the win column in 2025, with Stephen Hennessey and Keith Stewart hitting Ludvig Aberg outright (25-1) last week at the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. We needed that one.
You can bet there will be more winners to come, ideally starting this week at the Mexico Open, which features a much larger pool of players to pick from, albeit a much weaker one. It could be longshots SZN, though our experts do like a few guys at the top of the board, except for one who is coming off a crushing Sunday in San Diego.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of VidantaWorld, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Mexico Open:
Mexico Open picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Akshay Bhatia (14-1, FanDuel) — Akshay continued his strong play last week at Torrey, gaining 4.5 strokes/ball-striking on a driver-heavy course. That’s the kind of layout where he’s the favorite this week, and rightfully so. I think he continues his meteoric rise with his third PGA Tour victory.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Michael Kim (28-1, BetMGM) — Historically, we wouldn’t really give much thought to MK at course like Vidanta, but Kim has worked on increasing distance and the results have been good the last two weeks on driver-heavy courses: T-2 in Phoenix and T-13 at Torrey Pines. While he’s only made one cut in two starts in Mexico, it was mainly due to terrible driving efforts including a -4.6 strokes-gained/off-the-tee (in two rounds) performance a year ago. Yet, he’s been excellent on and around the greens in those starts. If he keeps his driver and irons hot south of the border and pairs them with his short game work, Kim may get back into the winner’s circle for the first time since the 2018 John Deere Classic.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Kurt Kitayama (22-1, FanDuel) — Kitayama’s long-term tee-to-green game is stellar compared to the rest of this field’s data, and his putting – while bad overall – is close to tour average from within 15 feet since the start of last season. As a result, he’s due for some regression in that department, and he’s finished second at Vidanta in his lone start to date.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Beau Hossler (35-1, FanDuel) — Let’s go for two in a row. Beau Hossler has the talent to win on the PGA Tour. Hossler has two top 15s in four starts this year. Beau bombs it off the tee and can score from close range. In 2023, he finished 10th at Vidanta Vallarta. A big strong player, Hossler’s secret weapons this week are par-3 scoring and the putter. He can handle this field and win for the first time on tour.
Watch the below video as PGA professional Keith Stewart breaks down his thoughts on the Mexico Open. Watch his full video of betting analysis with Run Pure Sports' Matthew Wiley here.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Alex Smalley (40-1, FanDuel) — The putter has always held Smalley back, but it’s become a positive. He gained over five strokes/putting at TPC Scottsdale. Combine the putting with his excellent long-iron play, par-5 scoring and all-around ball-striking, and he should contend again on a course where he was T-6 in 2022.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Carson Young (75-1, FanDuel) — There is truly no one I can stomach below 50-1, so let’s take a deep shot over the middle here. Carson Young has just one top 30 in 2025, but if you go back to late November, the last time the PGA Tour was in Mexico, Young finished second at the World Wide Technology Championship. In two trips to this event at Vidanta, Young has finished top 15 both times. That’s because this place emphasizes the two things Young and players like Young do well—gain strokes off the tee and get hot with the putter. He is one of many longshot candidates to spike in both those areas this week.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Alex Smalley (40-1, FanDuel) — I feel like I’ve been chasing an Alex Smalley win since I first saw him beat balls on the Duke driving range, and for some reason or another, he has largely become a Paspalum Resort course specialist on the PGA Tour. Outside of a sixth-place finish at Vidanta Vallarta, Smalley also has four top-25 finishes in five appearances at El Cardonal and Corales Punta Cana. Coming off a top-25 finish in Phoenix, Smalley is primed for a breakthrough victory.
Past results: We are on the board in 2025! Congrats to Keith Stewart and Stephen Hennessey, who correctly predicted Ludvig Aberg’s Genesis Invitational win at 25-1. This marks the first victory for Stewart on this panel, and hopefully the first of many.
Mexico Open picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Aldrich Potgieter (70-1, FanDuel) — This future star showed off his skill at the Farmers, and he might’ve struggled on Sunday, but it was his first time contending in a PGA Tour event. He hits it a LONG way and has been putting in some great work with Justin Parsons. It wouldn’t surprise me if that translates already to a victory.
Mayo: Antoine Rozner (80-1, FanDuel) — Fresh off a fourth-place finish in Qatar, ROZ is seemingly perfectly suited for Mexico. Plus distance against this field and elite ball-striking when he’s on. Which he has been more often than not lately. He got back on track with his performance in Qatar, but was electric to end the DP World Tour season in the fall with fourth in Korea, T-6 in Abu Dhabi and a T-3 at the DP World Tour Championship finishing only behind Rory and Rasmus Hojgaard. He’s contended in far stronger fields than this, and he’s being priced like a guy who is struggling for status on Korn Ferry. Good lag putter as well on these giant greens.
Gdula: Andrew Putnam (90-1, FanDuel) — This is a big number for Putnam, who is a top-five iron player in this field in recent months. He’s not long off the tee, and that’s a bit of a problem. However, he’s one of the best putters and approach players in the field, the two stats that lead to the highest single-week spikes of any.
Stewart: Matteo Manassero (125-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — We need a fantastic long iron player this week. We also need a powerful player who can score on par 3s. Matteo Manassero has stunned us with his long-range proximity since he was 17 years old and on the DP World Tour. With a top 25 at Farmers and two strong starts to begin his PGA Tour year, Manassero is one triple-digit odds player who can win in this field. Managing a career renaissance, Matteo has five DP World Tour wins. The most recent came in March just one year ago.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ricky Castillo (110-1, FanDuel) — The 24-year-old is a bomber off the tee, ranking seventh in the field in SG/off the tee. And she showed off his ball-striking prowess at the Farmers with a T-15 finish. I think he can flash and cash an each way here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sami Valimaki (220-1, FanDuel) — Last year’s Mexico Open runner-up is just a few weeks removed from a 15th-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open, so he’s coming in with a tiny bit of form at a course he clearly likes. Like my other pick to win, Carson Young, Valimaki hits nukes and makes putts, ranking eighth on the PGA Tour in SG/putting for the season.
Lack: Erik van Rooyen (60-1, DraftKings) — Similar to Smalley, Erik Van Rooyen has played some of his best golf on wide open, driver-heavy, Paspalum resort courses. Outside of an eighth-place finish at this event last year, EVR is also a former winner at the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal, a very similar golf course. While the form this year hasn’t been top notch, I’m willing to buy low on the prior history and course fit.
Mexico Open picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Patrick Rodgers (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — This will be a tough week for Patrick. He played so extremely well last week and came away with another disappointment seeking his first PGA Tour win. Bigger things might be on the horizon for him, but this will be a difficult week if he doesn’t get off to another hot start.
Mayo: Patrick Rodgers (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — You worry because the form is about as good as it has ever been in the present moment. But betting Rodgers as a favorite after a grueling Sunday at Torrey is a hard pass.
Gdula: Sam Stevens (22-1, FanDuel) — Stevens’ putter is hot right now—a bit too hot based on his underlying splits. He’s also one of the weaker long-term iron players among the favorites.
Stewart: Rasmus Hojgaard (18-1, FanDuel) — Both of the Højgaard brothers are incredibly talented. Nicolai played on the Rome Ryder Cup team for Europe and Rasmus Højgaard has five DP World Tour wins since 2019. The design of Vidanta Vallarta does remind me of a “Dubai Classic,” but there was nothing classic about Rasmus’ performance at Torrey Pines. Rasmus tends to roller coaster more than Nicolai (they are twins). I know the approach game was off, but it is the putter that concerns me. Højgaard has lost strokes on the greens in three of his last four starts. From bouncy Poa Annua to spongy Paspalum, I’m not sure this is the week he will fix it as a betting favorite.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — It’s been a disappointing start to 2025 for Rai. The ball-striking gains he showed off in 2024 have reverted. Hopefully this is a bounceback week for him, but a win would be a surprise.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Unfortunately, as much as I love P-Rodge, Pat Mayo nailed it above. Sunday is going to be a tough one to get over quickly for a guy who has been so close so many times and just can’t seem to get over the line. Making a million birdies, which is required to win this week, seems like a huge ask after that final-round grindfest at Torrey.
Lack: Patrick Rodgers (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — While Patrick Rodgers hung around far longer than I expected last week at Torrey Pines, we are still talking about a player who has never won on the PGA Tour at sub 25-1. On principle alone, this should raise a red flag, but I am also not keen on the fact that this will be Rodgers’ seventh week in a row of competition.
Mexico Open picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Harry Hall (-120) over Michael Kim (Bet365) — Harry’s done some great work with Butch Harmon, and it’s paying dividends. He’s struggled a bit the past few weeks, but he has been contending, and I think another big week’s in store. Kim’s had two exhausting weeks in a row, and I’d expect a little regression here.
Mayo: Antoine Rozner (-104) over Victor Perez (Coolbet) — In the battle of France, I like Rozner to challenge come Sunday while Perez typically does his best work on links courses and shorter tracks.
Gdula: Mac Meissner (-110) over Greyson Sigg (FanDuel) — Meissner has better strokes-gained data across all four facets the last year than Sigg, and he’s longer off the tee, too.
Stewart: Greyson Sigg (+100) over Patrick Fishburn (Bet365) — Patrick Fishburn looks like a fantastic fit for VidantaWorld. If that’s true, then why is he an underdog to Greyson Sigg? Lately, Sigg has just been better. He’s gaining an average of three strokes on the field over his last 10 starts while Fishburn has missed two straight cuts. No doubt Patrick is a bomber, but this week I believe the edge lies with Sigg who will play over the weekend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (-110) over Aaron Rai (DraftKings) — Rai’s ball-striking is just mediocre in this field over the past 36 rounds, which is startling given he was one of the best in the world last year. Maybe that regresses back this week. But Griffin has been playing just as solid and is a better putter and has an edge on birdie-making, par-5 scoring, easy course scoring and off-the-tee play.
Powers, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (+100) over Kevin Yu (Bet365) — All my friends in the gambling space seem to be high on Smalley this week. I just can’t get there. But I’ll hedge on those feelings by taking him here over Yu, who has very quietly finished in the top 20 back-to-back weeks, including the Genesis. With three top-21 finishes in his last four starts, though, Smalley is a live dog.
Lack: Alex Smalley (-120) over Niklas Norgaard (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as I am getting my pick to win as a short favorite over a largely unproven commodity. I am a long-term buy on Norgaard’s talent, and his power off the tee is certainly encouraging, but the results just haven’t been there yet on the PGA Tour.
Matchup Results from the Mexico Open: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Fleetwood (-120) over Day; Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Fleetwood (-120) over Day); Lack: 1 for 1 (Hovland (-125) over Spieth); Gdula: 1 for 1 (McNealy (-115) over Detry); Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Hennessey: 5-2-0 (up 2.87 units); Swing coach: 3-0-1 (up 2.54 units); Powers: 4-3-0 (up 1.15 units); Lack: 3-4-0 (down 1.33 units); Gdula: 3-4-0 (down 1.35 units); Mayo: 2-5-0 (down 2.95 units); Stewart: 2-5-0 (down 3.02 units)
Mexico Open picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Stephan Jaeger (+280, FanDuel) — With the extra length Jaeger has added, he’s a great fit for this course. He’s due for a solid week, and against this field, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s around the top of the leader board again like we were used to seeing last year.
Mayo: Erik van Rooyen (+550, FanDuel) — It’s been about as brutal a start to the season for EVR as it gets. Except for the round one front nine at Pebble Beach. That was electric. But this is a bet on history of skill and results. His driver has become a major issue since last summer. He normally hovered in the top 25 percent of the field off the tee for the past few years, but has lost more than a stroke to the field in four of his past seven starts. And some of those were not against the world’s best.
Gdula: Aaron Rai (+280, FanDuel) — Rai’s lack of distance isn’t ideal for Vidanta, yet he has two top-25 results at Vidanta already in his career. He’s not that far removed from golfing at his recent peak, and he’s a top-six tee-to-green player among this field over the last 50 rounds, per datagolf.
Stewart: Patrick Rodgers (+260, FanDuel) — In three editions of the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, Patrick Rodgers has finished inside the top 10 each time. Need another reason? Last week at Torrey Pines, Rodgers was in contention against the best players in the world and finished third.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Kevin Yu (+375, Bet365) — Yu's long iron numbers should carry him to the top of the leader board. Almost 65 percent of approach shots at Vidanta World come from over 175 yards, and Yu is first in this field in proximity from 175-200 yards and sixth 200-plus yards over the past 36 rounds, per RickRunGood.com.
Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Gotterup (+550, Bet365) — The former New Jersey State Open winner fits the mold of what I’m looking for this week – hellacious seeds and a hot putter. He will be on the outright card, too.
Lack: Nicolai Hojgaard (+400, DraftKings) — While I am bullish on both Hojgaard brothers this week, Nicolai certainly presents the most value. The big hitting Dane ranks top 15 in this field in both carry distance and long-term proximity from 175 yards plus, which will certainly pay dividends this week at one of the most long-iron intensive courses on the PGA Tour.
Top-10 results from the Mexico Open: Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Tommy Fleetwood +300); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Mayo: 2 for 7 (up 9.33 units); Lack: 3 for 7 (up 6.4 units); Gdula: 2 for 7 (up 1 unit); Swing coach: 1 for 4 (even units); Stewart: 2 for 7 (down 1.75 units); Hennessey: 0 for 7 (down 7 units); Powers: 0 for 7 (down 7 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports