Golf One-and-Done 2020-2021 Guide: 7 tips for winning these popular yearlong contests
With the increase in popularity in golf gambling and betting, we know that there will be more interest in golf “One and Done” pools this season than ever before. For the uninitiated, “One and Done” is a season-long (or year-long) contest in which you pick one golfer per week, and you earn points based on his performance. Usually you earn as many points as your golfer earns dollars in the actual event. Meaning a $1.5 million win for Dustin Johnson earns all Johnson backers 1,500,000 points. The catch, of course, is that you can only pick each golfer once throughout the year. The manager with the most points at the end of the season is the winner!
Think of it as golf’s version of the popular NFL survivor pool. And just as the survivor pool has become a staple of many bettors’ attitudes, we predict you being more and more tempted to join One and Done pools like the popular Gup’s Corner version (which will restart after the November Masters) and mine, which I just launched for this season, which begins this week at the 2020 Safeway Open.
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We asked two of the biggest One and Done experts in golf for their advice on this unique season.
Pat Mayo of Mayo Media Network: “Don’t feel like you need to take long shots to be unique. The better idea is look at the Top 5 players in the betting odds, scout a few articles and Podcasts, then take the one that you think will be the least popular.”
Brandon Guptill of Gup’s Corner: “I think the two most important things to do when prepping for your OAD leagues is to first map out the expected total prize money for all eligible tournaments in your league and then to create some kind of scripted out player pool for each tourney. Far too often I see people get to the end of the season and realize they left a lot of solid players on the bench trying to get too cute when making selections. Make sure you at least have your big guns slotted for the bigger $ tourneys, you can always adjust as the season goes along but having some kind of plotted template at least gives you a visual to review each week.”
Here’s my quick tips and advice if you’re getting involved in a One and Done pool for the 2020-2021 season.
Know The Schedule
The 2020-2021 PGA Tour season has already been dubbed the “Super Season” with its 50 events on the calendar, the most in a single year since 1975. Though there are a lot of events, keep in mind that they are not all created equal! The Puerto Rico Open offers a purse of “only” $3 million with a winner’s share of $540,000, while The Players boasts a purse of $15 million and a winner’s share of $2,700,000. Also, some tournaments like the World Golf Championships do not have a cut, so every golfer is guaranteed to make some cash that week. Though you don’t have to lock players into a week this early in the season, you do want to keep these purses in mind as you go through the season.
Deploy Your Studs
You’ll want to use your best golfers in the tournaments with the largest purses, but they’ll also be facing the toughest fields in those events. The ideal situation to deploy your “studs” is when they are one of the few favorites at the top of the board. A good example would have been last season’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. There were only six golfers who had odds shorter than 18-1 and no others golfers shorter than 30-1. That would indicate a small group of golfers who are most likely to win the golf tournament. One of those golfers, Webb Simpson, went on to claim the title.
Webb Simpson edged out Tony Finau for the title at last year's Waste Management Phoenix Open. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
There are going to be “natural fits” for golfers, events that you’ll want to use a specific competitor. Webb Simpson at the Wyndham Championship and Hideki Matsuyama at the Waste Management Open are two prime examples. Both golfers have elite history at those events and will be popular options in those weeks.
Per the RickRunGood.com One & Done database, Rory McIlroy is most often used at the Open Championship and the Masters while Brooks Koepka is most often used at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open.
Be A Little Different
The larger your league, the more you’ll want to differentiate from the most popular pick each week. Since golf is such a volatile sport and there is always a missed cut lurking, it’s beneficial to differentiate yourself from the masses. I certainly cannot advocate picking a 100-1 golfer as your One & Done selection, but choosing a player who is just a bit further down the board can be advantageous. For example, a golfer who is 10-1 to win the tournament is only 2.8 percent more likely to win the tournament than a golfer who is 15-1.
Play Your Position
Your weekly decisions should be driven by your position in your league standings. If you are at or near the lead, there is little incentive to be contrarian. You want to take the most popular and best option every single week while forcing those behind you to take less likely winners and try to catch up. If you are playing from behind, there’s little incentive to take the popular option or the natural fit in a specific week because even if that golfer wins, you won’t make up much ground on your peers.
For every Dustin Johnson there is a Jim Herman. For every Jon Rahm there is a Michael Thompson. It’s a long season (particularly this time around with 50 events!), so don’t let a couple poor tournaments to start get you down.
Rick Gehman, founder of RickRunGood.com and the RickRunGood YouTube Channel, is one of the industry’s leading experts on golf DFS and gambling. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood.