Betting Analysis
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2025: These metrics point to back-to-back wins for Ludvig Aberg
After this weekend, we’ll be halfway through the signature event schedule. Crazy, right? Plus the entire major slate is ahead of us. It’s officially the thick of golf season. One of the craziest things? Scottie Scheffler hasn’t won yet.
Scheffler, who required surgery for a hand injury after Christmas, has played well but is winless—a shock given his nine worldwide wins in 2024. Golf bettors are thankful for Scheffler’s lack of trophies, as it has allowed us to cash some decent tickets. One of those tickets for us in the column was at the last signature event with Ludvig Aberg. Can Aberg make it back-to-back siggies? Keith Stewart, a long-time PGA professional who now dishes out betting advice through his company Read The Line, seems to think so.
Stewart is part of our Golf Digest betting panel, which is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Bay Hill, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational:
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Tommy Fleetwood (33-1, FanDuel) — Tommy’s first PGA Tour win is happening this week. There, I said it. When he finally wins it, it’ll come on a tough golf course like Bay Hill where ball-strikers thrive. There’s a bit of a crossover between winners here and those who succeed on links courses, which is more reason to like Tommy here. The work he recently put in with Butch Harmon is paying off (T-5 at Genesis, gaining more than a stroke per round on approach).
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Maverick McNealy (55-1, FanDuel) — Three top 10s in six 2025 starts and is currently pairing great iron play with elite putting. Just keep the ball dry off the tee and we could be in business.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (20-1, FanDuel) — Collin Morikawa continues to play good golf and stripe his irons. We also see home hot-and-cold putting splits, but this week, a hot putter will be needed to separate from the rest of the field. The ball-striking is consistent, and his putting splits (distance-based and on Bermuda greens) are good enough for him to get one.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Ludvig Aberg (16-1, FanDuel) — I love watching Ludvig Åberg hit golf balls. Practice area perfection, Åberg is extremely confident in his ball-striking right now. Ludvig is a top-10 player in this field for driving, approach, bogey avoidance, bunker play, birdie-or-better percentage, proximity from 200-plus, and a couple other key analytics. The kid is really good. When you place this much pressure on driving, he’s always going to be a major part of the winning conversation.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Rory McIlroy (+950, Bet365) — This was Arnie’s Place, but Rory has a room at the inn. He gains nearly two strokes per round against his peers at Bay Hill, which is the second-best venue for him outside Quail Hollow. These odds are enough for me to bank on another win to continue this year of Rory.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Russell Henley (44-1, FanDuel) — Henley caught plenty of flack on social media for his latest Sunday stumble, but as David Bielski laid out in great detail on Twitter, winning is very hard. Henley continually puts himself into position and it stands to reason that he will eventually get over the line again. After gaining over five strokes tee-to-green at Cognizant, it would seem foolish to not hop on Henley at 44-1 after he was 25-1 a week ago. Florida is where he thrives and he is scorching hot. The question, of course, is can he beat a field like this? There is only one way to find out.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Patrick Cantlay (28-1, FanDuel) — It finally feels like it’s all starting to click for Patrick Cantlay, who is coming off a top-five finish at Torrey Pines, another long and difficult golf course with thick rough. Cantlay gained 3.5 strokes on approach, an area of his game that had been previously lacking, and he also began to heat up with the putter as well, gaining over six strokes with the flat stick. If Cantlay can finally get back to being one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, watch out.
Past results: We are on the board in 2025! Congrats to Keith Stewart and Stephen Hennessey, who correctly predicted Ludvig Aberg’s Genesis Invitational win at 25-1. This marks the first victory for Stewart on this panel, and hopefully the first of many.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Brian Harman (125-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — His game’s coming back around. I really like some of the work he and his coach Justin Parsons are putting in. We know he plays tough golf courses well, so it shouldn’t shock me if he goes on nicely at Bay Hill.
Mayo: Akskay Bhatia (80-1, FanDuel) — Akshay’s figured out his flat stick and sits fourth in the field in proximity from 200-plus yards over all players in this field over the past 24 rounds. Yet somehow, he’s just 67th of 72 players in par-5 scoring over that span. Eventually that number has to come down. It’s somewhat worrisome he’s one of the shortest players in the field with a driver but his accuracy should help him avoid the crippling big numbers.
Gdula: Sam Burns (55-1, FanDuel) — Burns is on Bermuda this week, but the overall short game is great, and he’s a top-20 iron player over the last 50 rounds, too. He’ll need to hit more fairways and avoid the water with driver, but he’s got the distance to break through at Bay Hill.
Stewart: Daniel Berger (70-1, FanDuel) — I believe a player can be weighed down by expectations. Daniel Berger sat in the media room as a favorite for the first time in three years at PGA National. The most popular pick on the board, Berger’s West Coast success was consumed by a tidal wave of attention. Fast forward to Bay Hill where Daniel doesn’t have to enter the media center until Sunday afternoon. An incredible player off the tee, Berger can really strike his long irons as well. He’s gaining over five strokes per start over his last five tournaments. Amongst a number of other players in his odds range, DB can also win.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (61-1, Bet365) — Wyndham was second here last year. The winning upside is certainly worth betting this number.
Powers, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (70-1, FanDuel) — Like my Henley pick, I’m buying in on the guys everyone loved last week at way better odds this week. Berger has now finished inside the top 25 in three consecutive starts, and while he’s only appeared at Bay Hill twice, he does have a 13th-place finish. And we know he has the stones to not back down from any of the elites in this field on Sunday should it come to that. Berger views himself as one of them.
Lack: Sam Burns (55-1, FanDuel) — Sam Burns is quietly playing some better golf this year than his results would suggest, and his driving has been particularly strong. Now Burns returns to firm and fast Bermuda greens, and over the last three years, the five-time PGA Tour winner has been the best Bermuda putter in this field.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Xander Schauffele (16-1, DraftKings) — Bay Hill is not the place I’d want to shake off rust, but he ran out of options before The Players. He doesn’t have a good history here, either, so he’s a pass.
Mayo: Xander Schauffele (16-1, DraftKings) — Too steep of a price for a guy coming off a two-month rib injury at a course where he’s never finished inside the top 20 over his three starts.
Gdula: Tommy Fleetwood (25-1, FanDuel) — Boy, it’s hard to pinpoint a name at the top not to like because everyone is in great form, but if I had to identify a single name 25-1 or shorter not to be on this week, it’s Tommy, whose recent strokes gained ceiling is well off the mark of the other favorites.
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Stewart: Tommy Fleetwood (22-1, Bet365) — Eleven players missed the cut one year ago at Bay Hill, and Tommy Fleetwood was one of them. In 147 PGA Tour starts, Fleetwood has 38 top-10 finishes. Five of those top 10s are third-place results and Tommy has another five runners-up. Unfortunately, with all of that success there are no wins. In an event where the world’s best are under immense pressure, I am going to pass on Los Angeles Golf Club’s favorite fairway finder. Signature events call for closers, and until that happens, I will fade on the flowing locks of Fleetwood.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (16-1, DraftKings) — It’s an easy pass in his first event since Maui.
Powers, Golf Digest: Xander Schauffele (16-1, DraftKings) — Love me some Xander but it’s too soon post-injury.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (25-1, FanDuel) — It’s extremely tough to fade the top of the board at course like Bay Hill, which may do the best job on the PGA Tour of separating elite tee to green skill from average tee to green skill. Yet Hideki Matsuyama is probably my least favorite of the group below 30-1 this week, as his ball-striking has been trending in the wrong direction.
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Corey Conners (+120) over Shane Lowry (Bet365) — The Canadian’s one of the best ball-strikers in this field, and that’s what I’d lean on here. He has good history here as he always tends to be playing his best this time of year.
Mayo: Taylor Pendrith (-120) over Ben Griffin (Coolbet) — Just hope it’s not one of those weeks where Griffin gains 10 more strokes putting than Pendy.
Gdula: Shane Lowry (-120) over Will Zalatoris (FanDuel) — Lowry has an edge both tee-to-green and putting over Zalatoris over the long-term and short-term data.
Stewart: Ben Griffin (+100) over Taylor Pendrith (Bet365) — Ben Griffin did it again. Griffin finished fourth for the second week in a row at PGA National. He won our head-to-head matchup on Friday as Davis Thompson did not make the cut. Speaking of missed cuts, Taylor Pendrith missed the weekend in Palm Beach Gardens, too. Six straight events losing strokes with his putter, Taylor is in a bad place on the greens. The strokes-gained/around-the-green are not good as well, and we all know what is needed to survive at Bay Hill. Take Ben again and ride the momentum to another sweat-free win.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tommy Fleetwood (-115) over Patrick Cantlay (FanDuel) — Tommy’s playing consistent great golf and loves tough courses. Cantlay’s slowly putting the pieces together but I trust Fleetwood in this spot.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (+100) over Taylor Pendrith (Bet365) — Not sure how you can go against Ben Griffin in Florida right now. Guy is scorching hot.
Lack: Ludvig Aberg (-115) over Collin Morikawa (Bet365) — I was surprised to see Ludvig Aberg at such a short price over Collin Morikawa this week, as Aberg’s power off the tee should give him a huge leg up over the two-time major winner. Morikawa has looked a few minor details off in 2025, while Aberg has already proven his meddle at Torrey Pines, another long and difficult golf course with thick rough.
Matchup Results from the Cognizant Classic: Powers: 1 for 1 (Glover (-110) over Eckroat); Lack: 1 for 1 (Berger (+100) over Pendrith); Mayo: 1 for 1 (M. Kim (+100) over Kitayama); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Griffin (+100) over Thompson); Gdula: PUSH (Clanton (-105) over Fowler); Hennessey: 0 for 1; Swing coach: 0 for 1;
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 6-3-0 (up 3.06 units); Hennessey: 5-3-1 (up 1.87 units); Swing coach: 3-2-1 (up 0.54 units); Lack: 5-4-0 (up 0.5 units); Mayo: 4-5-0 (down 0.99 units); Stewart: 4-5-0 (down 1.02 units); Gdula: 3-5-1 (down 2.35 units)
Arnold Palmer Invitational picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Byeong Hun An (+700, FanDuel) — You need some serious clubhead speed to dig shots out of the rough this week. Another fantastic ball-striker who will be playing a home game in Orlando this week.
Mayo: Taylor Pendrith (+350, Bet365) — Weirdly, it’s been putting for Pendrith this season. Historically plagued by inconsistent irons, he’s now gained almost two strokes per start on approach, mainly against fields as strong as this, over his past 10 starts. But after a stretch where he gained at least 2.4 strokes with his putter in 10 of his final 13 events of 2024 Pendrith has yet to be in the positive in 2025. Bay Hill sports some of lowest make percentages annually, so maybe his elite ball-striking can overcome this week.
Gdula: Russell Henley (+360, FanDuel) — The only knock is a lack of distance, but Henley has finished top-10 in three of his last five and at Bay Hill last year. The form is just better than a +360 number right now (he’s ninth in datagolf’s adjusted strokes gained metrics over the last 50 rounds).
Stewart: Justin Thomas (+230, FanDuel) — Justin Thomas has 10 top 10s in his last 25 starts. Twelfth one year ago at Bay Hill, Thomas is really trending with his iron game. JT has gained on approach in 11 straight starts. Combine that with a top three short game in this field and he’s ready to contend. Justin has been off when it comes to finishing wins, but with the 10 places, we will win even if he doesn’t.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (+360, FanDuel) — Henley is playing too well right now and admitted his ball-striking is as good as it’s been. That’ll be very valuable around Bay Hill. His improved short game will help, too.
Powers, Golf Digest: Harris English (+650, FanDuel) — Less than two months removed from his fifth tour win, English seems very undervalued this week. Bay Hill is the ultimate tee-to-green test and English is the ultimate tee-to-green player. He’s finished 26th or better in four straight appearances at the API.
Lack: Justin Thomas (+230, FanDuel) — Justin Thomas just missed my outright card this week, as I remain skeptical that he can make enough putts down the stretch to close a golf tournament, yet I’m still bullish in his chances to contend this week. The two-time major winner has gained over 13 strokes on approach in his last two starts, and it appears that the vintage JT, one of the best iron players in the world, is finding form again with his greatest weapon.
Top-10 results from the Cognizant Classic: Everybody: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Lack: 4 for 9 (up 9.4 units); Mayo: 2 for 9 (up 7.33 units); Gdula: 3 for 9 (up 2.8 units); Swing coach: 2 for 6 (up 1.8 units); Stewart: 2 for 9 (down 3.75 units); Hennessey: 0 for 9 (down 9 units); Powers: 0 for 9 (down 9 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports