PGA TourFebruary 19, 2020

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship DFS picks: Why Rory McIlroy is an auto play this week

Rory McIlroy 2020 Genesis Invitational - Final Round
(Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)Rory McIlroy tees off during the final round of the 2020 Genesis Invitational.

Last week's world-class field was so strong, it makes this week's field at the 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship look weaker in comparison. But this is no weak field. Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas ... stars not named Tiger Woods (or Brooks Koepka) are out at the Club de Golf Chapultepec.

It's a small field despite being top heavy. Only 72 players will compete in the no-cut WGC event. As Pat Perry of the Tour Junkies pointed out, the last five WGC events have been won by players with odds of 20-1 or lower. So looking at the favorites is a proper way to start your betting card. But to complete your DFS lineups, you're going to need find value—and differentiate your lineups from the chalk—all the way down the board.

Here's who our experts like this week at the year's first WGC.

RELATED: 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship: Our experts are feeling bold and fading this recent winner

Here's who our panel likes for this week:

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship, Under the Radar Picks of the Week

Pat Mayo, DraftKings: Paul Casey (FanDuel: $10,700; DraftKings: $8,700) — The Brit has never finished outside the top 20 of this event, and the strangest part, he’s never lost strokes on the green at Club de Golf Chapultepec. Atypical for Mr. Casey. Despite a T37 finish a week ago, Casey was a ball-striking phenom, his 9.2 Strokes Gained Ball Striking was the most of any player in the field.

Lee Alldrick, FanShare: Matt Kuchar (FanDuel: $10,600; DraftKings; $8,800) — Kuuuch finished 2nd last week at a course that really didn’t suit him to that extent. This was 3 weeks after winning the Singapore Open. It would appear that the World Number 15 is playing to a level he has not played to in a long time. This course will suit him and if he plays good golf again this week there is no reason why he can’t win this week. The high altitude that causes this course to play very short will erase the disadvantage he has against the long hitters. Plus he ranks 5th in the field this week for Shots Gained Putting on Poa Greens. So far this week Kuchar has received just 4 Expert Tags compared to DJ who currently leads with 19.

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel Sebastian Munoz (FanDuel: $7,900; DraftKings: $6,800) — Munoz is underpriced, which really opens things up for this week. Munoz is a balanced golfer who ranks 33rd or better in all four strokes gained stats over the past 50 rounds, according to FantasyNational.com. It’ll be his course debut, but as far as a value goes, he looks to be one of the best options.

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship, Value Plays of the Week

Mayo: Rory McIlroy (FanDuel: $12,200; DraftKings: $11,500): Spend up for Rory McIlroy. Rory actually does a lot of damage on shorter courses; he lost in a playoff in Switzerland last year. I present 2019 as a test case: wins at Sawgrass, Hamilton and East Lake would support that theory. The runner-up a year ago, Rory is fresh off a top-five at Genesis, his fifth consecutive top-5 finish and ninth top 10 in his past 11 PGA starts. It's hard to think he's not an auto play this week.

Gdula, FanDuel: Louis Oosthuizen (FanDuel: $10,400; DraftKings: $8,900) — With all the studs at the top of the field, Oosthuizen should naturally go fairly low-owned due to roster construction. Oosthuizen, though, has played here all three years and has five straight top-25s on the European Tour. His stats profile shows no glaring weaknesses, and that’s the key for me this week.

Alldrick, FanShare: Shaun Norris (FanDuel: $7,200; DraftKings: $6,300) — Norris will not be a name known to many DFS players so is likely to be very low owned this week, however, Norris is on a heater right now. Playing on the Japanese Tour last season he recorded 9 top 10 finishes in his last 13 events which included 6 top 3 finishes. This is unreal golf. He has transferred this form onto the European Tour too having made all 3 of his European Tour cuts this year which includes an impressive 6th at The Abu Dhabi Championship. The South African also has the added bonus of having played here before in last year’s WGC Mexico.

RELATED: 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship: Our experts are feeling bold and fading this recent winner

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship, Recommended Lineup Builds

Mayo: — Here's who I'm building most of my lineups around in all formats this week:

Rory McIlroy (FanDuel: $12,200; DraftKings: $11,500) Xander Schauffele (FanDuel: $11,100; DraftKings: $9,400) Paul Casey (FanDuel: $10,700; DraftKings: $8,700) Bernd Weisberger (FanDuel: $8,400; DraftKings: $7,400) Kevin Kisner (FanDuel: $9,400; DraftKings: $7,200)

Gdula: — Based on the past two years of optimal lineups at Chapultepec, the best lineups have featured two studs and some balance after that. On FanDuel, think something along the lines of a $12,000 golfer, an $11,000 golfer and then four golfers between $8,600 and $10,000. That is to say: don’t get enamored with too many low-end value plays despite the no-cut format. This week, I’ll be fixating on a small core of studs, namely Rory McIlroy ($12,200), Jon Rahm ($11,800), and Xander Schauffele ($11,100). Then, rotating in some value plays in the low-$9,000 range will be the goal. Byeong Hun An ($9,200) and Tyrrell Hatton ($9,100) fit that build.

Alldrick: — I like the value available in this DraftKings lineup which the cheapest three players being much better value on DraftKings than FanDuel.

Dustin Johnson - $11,000 Matt Kuchar - $8,800
Bubba Watson - $8,200 Brandt Snedeker - $7,700 Charles Howell III - $7,100 Danny Willett - $7,000

And for FanDuel: There is some great value available on FanDuel this week like in the lineup below. In a small entry field like this, coming in at $4k under the max price should give you the needed differential.

Dustin Johnson - $12,000 Justin Thomas -$11,700 Adam Scott - $9,500 Danny Willett - $8,200 Matt Wallace - $7,400 Shaun Norris - $7,200

Here's a look at who's buzzing this week, according to FanShare Sports:

RELATED: Complete odds for the 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2020 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award, and was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 21 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are third-most all-time. Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.

Brandon Gdula, a senior editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 fantasy sports-writers association Golf Writer of the Year (congrats, Brandon!). Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.

Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers are Golf Digest's main gambling writers. Listen to this week's Golf Digest podcast, where they break down their favorite bets for the Sony Open, as well as major winners and season-long predictions.

Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.


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