PGA TourFebruary 12, 2020

2020 Genesis Invitational DFS picks: Will Jordan Spieth return value again?

Our experts pumped up Jordan Spieth last week as a DFS play at Pebble Beach, and he returned strong return on your investment with his best stats in terms of strokes gained/tee-to-green since the 2018 Byron Nelson. Spieth's underpriced relative to the other top players in this elite field. Do you dare go back to the Spieth well?

The answer is, yes, according to the experts. Here's their advice for DFS this week.

RELATED: 2020 Genesis Invitational picks: The case for and against Tiger Woods this week

2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions, Under the Radar Picks of the Week

Pat Mayo, DraftKings: Carlos Ortiz (FanDuel: $8,400; DraftKings: $6,800) — From the back end of the field, Ortiz is where you can nab some savings and gran a player who’s never finished worse than T26 in three starts at the Genesis, on his preferred putting surface, who is in the midst of his best season in his PGA TOUR career. Bound to be overlooked after middling T-53/T-48/MC/T-25 results in 2020, but Ortiz clearly has an affinity for this layout, and scores really well on the longer Par 4s. Over the past 50 rounds, per www.fantasynational.com, the Mexican is 15th in the field around the greens, 29th in driving distance gained, and 26th in Par 4s gained 450-500 yards.

Lee Alldrick, FanShare: Jordan Spieth (FanDuel: $10,300; DraftKings: $8,400) — Spieth is ever so quietly becoming a DFS factor once again. His ninth-place last week marked his 11th cut in his last 12 events. It was also his third top-10 in his last nine. He gets to tee it up at the best possible course for him come Thursday. So if he enters this week with the confidence that he should, then we could see some ‘go get that’ fireworks this week. The reason why Riviera should go so well for Spieth is because he performs particularly well on long courses and courses that have fast, Poa greens. We actually have him ranked 5th in our Course Suitability Ranking so if you were thinking about having a future bet on Spieth winning The Masters you might want to put it on before Thursday!

Brandon Gdula, FanDuel Jordan Spieth (FanDuel: $10,300; DraftKings: $8,400) — I know how it sounds, but Spieth can be a world-class player, and he’s priced as a field-average option. That’s merited, but he actually picked up 4.6 strokes with his approach play at Pebble Beach on Sunday and has four top-25s and two top-10s at Riviera over the past six years.

2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions, Value Plays of the Week

Mayo: Bubba Watson (FanDuel: $11,200; DraftKings: $9,600): Bubba comes in hot with consecutive Top 10s, and returns to a venue he wins at every other year. He faltered on his approaches a year ago (-1 SG: APP), but outside of that blip, he’s gained in every Strokes Gained metric at Riviera each of the past five years. That’s resulted in three wins and no finish worse than T15.

Gdula, FanDuel: Carlos Ortiz (FanDuel: $8,400; DraftKings: $6,800) — Ortiz has the distance to stay relevant at Riviera and is a good poa putter. He also has finished 20th, 26th, and 9th at this event over the past five years. He’s one of a few value options who really stand out, and he unlocks the ability to get extra studs into your lineup.

Alldrick, FanShare: Charley Hoffman (FanDuel: $8,200; DraftKings: $6,700) — This week tends to be the start of Hoffman’s preparations for the Masters where he will no doubt once again be in the hunt for the first round leader honour. We have him ranked 23rd in our CSR so we know Riviera will suit. Hoffman has made 6 of his last 7 cuts here and has a 12th and a 4th place finish to his name in that run. The World Number 162 has been giving himself a lot of opportunities for birdie over the last 2 months, ranking 22nd in the field this week for Opportunities Gained. He should be able to convert more of these opportunities this week as he putts very well on these fast, Poa greens. We have him ranked 18th in the field this week for SGP on fast, Poa.

RELATED: Why our experts love Justin Thomas' chances this week

2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions, Recommended Lineup Builds

Gdula: — If trying to maximize cut odds for a head-to-head format, the optimal approach is to build a balanced lineup that hovers around the $10,000 range for every golfer. That’s because we have a lot of great options priced near the average salary slot: Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200), Collin Morikawa ($10,100), Paul Casey ($10,000), Sungjae Im ($9,900). It’s scary to fade the studs, and I don’t advocate that, but a little more balance this week is actually a smart way to play this tough field.

Alldrick: — With so many players with a chance of winning this week, I like going for a balanced lineup where all six should make this cut. This is a lineup I like for DraftKings.

Bubba Watson - $9,600 Jordan Spieth - $8,400 Abraham Ancer - $8,200 Collin Morikawa - $8,100 Paul Casey - $7,900 Matt Kuchar - $7,800

And for FanDuel: The pricing on FanDuel allows for a good stars and scrubs line up this week such as the one below.

Rory McIlroy - $12,200 Jon Rahm – $11,900 Bubba Watson $11,300 Ryan Palmer - $9,000 Charley Hoffman - $8,200 Kyle Stanley - $7,100

RELATED: 2020 Genesis Invitational tee times, viewer's guide

About our experts

Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2020 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award, and was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 21 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are third-most all-time. Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com.

Brandon Gdula, a senior editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 fantasy sports-writers association Golf Writer of the Year (congrats, Brandon!). Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast.

Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers are Golf Digest's main gambling writers. Listen to this week's Golf Digest podcast, where they break down their favorite bets for the Sony Open, as well as major winners and season-long predictions.

Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports started out writing an article highlighting the best bargain plays for fantasy golf under his twitter handle @DKGolfBargains. His success at this prompted FanShare Sports to enlist him as a guest writer, which evolved into him writing the weekly Under The Radar article. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldrick’s insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs.