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Inside the numbers: Five lessons from 2012

Sun, 25 Nov 2012 07:44:00 GMT

An exciting 2012 PGA Tour season is in the books, but that doesn't mean it still can't teach us things. A look through the final statistics reveals plenty about what happened -- and some things we can expect going forward. Here are five observations that stood out:

Strokes gained-putting has become the go-to putting stat: Let's hear it for math! First, Nate Silver showed up traditional polling methods by correctly predicting all 50 states in the recent presidential election and now the PGA Tour's newest metric has reached a similar point of infallibility: Brandt Snedeker -- this year's FedEx Cup champion, who is widely regarded as the game's best on the greens -- was ranked No. 1. It goes beyond that, though, with Luke Donald (last year's top-ranked putter) checking in at No. 3 and guys like Aaron Baddely and Zach Johnson being tied for eighth. In other words, this stat developed in part by MIT researchers and introduced last year isn't just a bunch of mumbo-jumbo. Keep that in mind as we tackle the next two topics.

Camilo Villegas should call Dave Stockton: Remember Camilo Villegas? You know, that guy who does the "Spider-Man" routine on the greens? Well, apparently, it's not working anymore. The Colombian had perhaps the most disastrous season of any tour player, finishing 144th on the money list to lose his tour card and make him an unlikely competitor at this year's Q School. For a guy who still ranked fourth in greens in regulation, putting is obviously the main culprit. Going back and forth between traditional and belly putters, he ranked 164th in strokes gained-putting. Oddly enough, Villegas also shot 65 or better in four opening rounds this year, but wound up finishing no better than T-19 in any of those events. While he's got his phone out, maybe he should give Bob Rotella a ring as well. . .

Villegas' 2012 struggles stemmed from bad putting. (Photo: Getty Images)

Imagine if Lee Westwood could chip and putt? Westy was his usual consistent self in 2012 racking up seven top 10s in just 15 PGA Tour events, while missing the cut only once. However, the Englishman finished dead last (191 out of 191) in scrambling percentage and 175th in strokes gained-putting. So how did he still produce such great results? Well, it helps being third on tour in greens in regulation. Still, if Westwood wants to finally stop coming up short in majors, he should start by giving a long look at his short game.

Bo Van Pelt and Robert Garrigus are due for a win: Van Pelt had 10 top 10s, tied for first on tour with Rory McIlroy, and Garrigus racked up the most runner-ups on tour with four -- and that doesn't count a recent T-2 at the tour-sanctioned CIMB Classic in Malaysia. But if you think they didn't take home any trophies because they didn't play well under pressure, you'd be wrong. BVP had the 19th-best final-round scoring average and got out-dueled by a certain 14-time major winner wearing a red shirt in his closest call at the AT&T National. Meanwhile, Garrigus closed even better by breaking par in all five of the final rounds in which he finished just off the pace, including 68s at his first (Humana Challenge) and last (Disney) events of the year and a 64 at the Transitions Championship, where he lost to a birdie by Luke Donald in a playoff. If these guys continue to play this way in 2013, there's a good chance both could graduate from being one-time PGA Tour winners.

"Badds is" still bad at ball-striking: He may have won at "Hogan's Alley," Riviera CC, in 2011, but that's as close as Aaron Baddeley will ever come to being compared to "The Hawk." No matter what swing (At one time, he was the poster boy for the "Stack & Tilt" method) the Aussie uses, he just can't seem to improve his game from tee to green. This year, he ranked 179th on tour in ball-striking, but in the past decade, he has never finished higher than 120th, with most of those years being just as bad, if not worse than this past season (196th in the 2005 campaign being the low point). Considering he's been a pro since 2000, we find little reason to believe this trend will change in the near future. Then again, Baddeley has more than 15 million reasons in just PGA Tour earnings to not be too concerned.

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Boo! Weekley's putting is downright scary

Wed, 31 Oct 2012 19:34:00 GMT

By Alex Myers

Boo Weekley is probably best known for wearing camouflage on the course and doing the "Bull Dance" from the movie "Happy Gilmore" during the U.S.'s upset win at the 2008 Ryder Cup. But unfortunately for the colorful golfer, his claim to fame this season isn't anything to smile about.

It only seems fitting to mention Boo on Halloween and even more appropriate to point out his frighteningly-bad putting stats. With one fall series event left on the PGA Tour schedule -- the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals Classic Nov. 8-11 -- Weekley checks in at 189 out of 190 in the tour's most comprehensive putting metric: strokes gained-putting.

Of the players ranked, only Kyle Thompson is worse and his 36 measured rounds (to Weekley's 55) isn't really a fair sample size to compare. Of anyone playing as many rounds as Weekley on tour this year in which this stat was documented, Kyle Stanley is the closest when it comes to putting futility, and even he has an average that's nearly half a shot better per round.

So how has Weekley managed to earn $683,259 -- a figure that places him just inside the all-important top 125 on the money list -- thus far in 2012? Attribute it to a season of Ben Hogan-like ball-striking for the 39-year-old. Weekley ranks first on tour in total driving, T-4 in greens in regulation and first in overall ball-striking. Who are Nos. 2-5 you might ask? Just a few guys named Jason Dufner, Lee Westwood, Hunter Mahan and Justin Rose.

Amazingly, Weekley ranked first in ball-striking last year as well to go along with 186th in strokes gained-putting. Without top 10s at the Puerto Rico Open and RBC Heritage (the site of his two career PGA Tour wins) to buoy him, though, Weekley made less than $300,000 in 23 events.

The stats reveal that this isn't a new trend, however. Since the tour started keeping track of strokes gained-putting in 2007, Weekley has never finished better than 161st. Weekley probably isn't a big fan of that stat, but if you also have your doubts, just know that his best "traditional" putting stat this year is putting from 20-25' -- where he ranks 134th. Come to think of it, Happy Gilmore (Think: "Just taaaap it in") wasn't known for his touch on the greens, either. . .

Alex Myers is a GolfDigest.com contributing editor.

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(Photo by Getty Images)

What the stats project for Day 3 at the PGA Championship

Sat, 11 Aug 2012 02:18:00 GMT

By Brett Avery

Six notable second-round stats that indicate how the PGA Championship might unfold Saturday at Kiawah Island's Ocean Course, provided by Golf World contributing writer Brett Avery, who compiles the Rank and File statistical sections for the magazine's coverage of the major championships and other significant events.

Carl Pettersson ranks 19th on tour this year in scoring average, but 29th on Saturdays. Photo by: The State/Getty Images

1. For more than a decade it was a foregone conclusion that Tiger Woods (69-71) had the capacity to stun people with his weekend play in major championships. Saturday and Sunday have become the litmus test, however, since losing the 2009 PGA to Y.E. Yang and then suffering his one-car accident a few months later. Woods averaged 70.396 on weekends in majors as a professional through the '09 PGA. But since returning to competition at the '10 Masters, he has averaged 71.083 in majors and 71.750 after those cuts. Woods has broken par just once in his last 12 weekend major rounds -- a 67 in the '11 Masters as he placed T-4. In those same dozen rounds he's averaged 72.333. So far this season on the PGA Tour, Woods ranks fifth in scoring average before the cut (69.98), but 33rd in third rounds (70.18) and 24th in final rounds (70.20).

2. Vijay Singh has been saying to anyone who will listen (or read his Tweets) for the last few months that he's been close to form. Singh's 71-69 at Kiawah Island makes four straight rounds in majors at par or better, following his 68-70 conclusion at last month's British Open at Royal Lytham. That is Singh's best such run since a seven-round streak encompassing every round at the '05 British at St. Andrews (69-69-71-72, T-5) and three of the '05 PGA at Baltusrol (70-67-69-74, T-10). Singh has not had back-to-back major top 10s since the '06 Masters (T-8) and U.S. (T-6).

3. Carl Pettersson (66-74) bogeyed three of his last four holes, the Ocean Course's sixth through eighth, yet kept a share of the lead at four-under 140. It is the fifth time the Swede has led through 36 holes in a PGA Tour event. He failed to convert at the '04 Honda Classic (T-13) and '05 Children's Miracle Network Classic (T-15) but he was successful in the '06 Memorial and '08 Wyndham. This season Pettersson won the RBC Heritage down the coast at Harbour Town on Hilton Head Island after seconds in the Sony Open in Hawaii and Houston. Pettersson ranks 19th on tour this year in scoring average (69.79) but his weakest day has been Saturday (70.07, ranked 29th).

4. The field scoring average for the second round was 78.107 when play was halted at 8:16 p.m. with Joost Luiten the only player on the course. Regardless of how Luiten plays the 18th hole Saturday morning, the second round will rank as the highest day in a PGA since the first round in 1958 at Llanerch (76.8). It also will be the highest round in a major since the closer of the '04 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills (78.727), followed by the first round of the '99 British at Carnoustie (78.314). This year's second round also finishes slightly below the first round of the 1993 Buick Invitational (78.383).

5. Sixteen different players have won the last 16 majors, a streak that kicked off with Padraig Harrington in the '08 PGA at Oakland Hills. Only four contenders in the top 23 at sundown Friday night can prevent that streak from reaching 17: Rory McIlroy (-2/T-5), Phil Mickelson (E/T-12), Graeme McDowell (E/T-12) and Keegan Bradley (+1/T-15). Of those 23 at one over or better, only nine have won majors. And in that streak of 16 victories, only one was secured with an over-par total: Webb Simpson shot one-over 281 in this year's U.S. Open at The Olympic Club.

6. Unless someone withdraws or is disqualified during the last 36 holes, a dozen players will make the cut in all four majors this year. Adam Scott (987) and Graeme McDowell (990) are the only two beating par of 992 for the first 14 rounds. Closest to them are Ian Poulter (995), Tiger Woods (997), Padraig Harrington (998) and Jim Furyk (1,001). Those standings indicate a player from outside the United States will post the lowest aggregate total for the 15th time since 1960, but the fourth time in the last five seasons. Harrington won the unofficial title in 2008 (1,139) followed by Ross Fisher (1,138), Mickelson (1,130) and Charl Schwartzel (1,118). Two rounds of par 72 at Kiawah Island would put Scott at 1,131.

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What the stats project for Day 2 at the PGA Championship

Fri, 10 Aug 2012 01:39:00 GMT

By Brett Avery
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Seven notable second-round stats that indicate how the PGA Championship might unfold Friday at Kiawah Island's Ocean Course, provided by Golf World contributing writer Brett Avery, who compiles the Rank and File statistical sections for the magazine's coverage of the major championships and other significant events.

1. Once again the nation of Sweden finds itself collectively crossing its fingers, hoping to become the 19th country to claim a winner of one of the four major championships. Carl Pettersson (six-under-par 66) became the second Swede to lead a major this season, following the example of Peter Hanson through 54 holes of the Masters (he tied for third). Alex Noren, making his eighth career major after T-9 in last month's British Open, eagled the 16th en route to a 67. Pettersson has cracked the top 10 in a major only twice (2008 U.S. Open, T-6; '06 British Open, T-8). Swedes have finished second in a trio of majors: Jesper Parnevik in the 1994 and '97 British and Niclas Fasth in the '01 British.

2. The bogey-bogey-bogey-bogey finish by Joost Luiten of The Netherlands early in the afternoon squelched hopes for the 26th instance of a player shooting 63 in a major championship--or breaking the record with 62 or better. Luiten, who began his round at the 10th tee, also blew the possibility for the first time players shot 63 in majors in three consecutive seasons--and all in first rounds, no less. Rory McIlroy posted his in the 2010 U.S. Open at Congressional and Steve Stricker went low in last year's PGA at Atlanta AC. Luiten, making his third career start in a major, staggered to the clubhouse with a 68. Despite the disappointment, he bettered his major career low: 69s in the Open Championship last year (T-45) and this year (T-63).

3. One day is hardly a barometer, but a comparison of potential Ryder Cup players favors the European side. Only two of the top eight on the United States points list broke par (Keegan Bradley 68, Tiger Woods 69). By comparison, five of the top 10 on the two points lists used to select the European side cracked par (Rory McIlroy 67, Graeme McDowell 68, Peter Hanson and Justin Rose 69, Francesco Molinari 70).

4. There are 102 of the top 103 players in the World Ranking competing after the withdrawal of No. 56 Ben Crane. That makes this one of the strongest fields in the game's history. Yet if form in recent PGAs continues this week, there's a good chance the victor will emerge from outside the world top 100. Two of the last three victors claimed that distinction: Y.E. Yang was 110th in '09 and Keegan Bradley was 108th last year. Only one man outside the world top 100 ranked in the top 10 through the first day: John Daly at 219th, who placed T-5 last week in the Reno-Tahoe Open. That was Daly's best showing on the PGA Tour since he was second to Woods in the '05 WGC-American Express Championship at Harding Park.

5. Compared to the other major championships since '04, the PGA has crowned more winners who stood in the world top 10 entering the week they won. The PGA has had five: Vijay Singh in '04, Phil Mickelson in '05, Tiger Woods in '06 and '07 and Padraig Harrington in '08. (The Masters has had four, the British three and U.S. Open two). Only two guys in the world top 10 stood in the top-10 standings at Kiawah Island: McIlroy (ranked third) and Adam Scott (ranked seventh).

6. Staying with the Ryder Cup, the eight automatic U.S. selections will be determined when the last putt drops this week. Only one of the players around the bubble broke par Thursday: Dustin Johnson shot 71. Players will earn two points for every $1,000 earned this week. First prize of $1.445 million would be worth 2,890 points while solo 70th money of $15,000 would be worth 30.

7. Matt Kuchar (4,448.942) E (T-45)
8. Phil Mickelson (4,163.608) +1 (T-66)
9. Hunter Mahan (4,082.228) E (T-45)
10. Steve Stricker (3,563.069) +2 (T-88)
11. Jim Furyk (3,318.116) E (T-45)
12. Rickie Fowler (3,313.338) +2 (T-88)
13. Brandt Snedeker (3,176.787) +5 (T-132)
14. Dustin Johnson (3,002.770) -1 (T-32)
15. Bo Van Pelt (2,952.981) +1 (T-66)

7. Since 2000, only two PGA winners did not collect a title on the PGA Tour earlier in the season: Shaun Micheel in '03 and Martin Kaymer in '10. (As an asterisk, European Tour regular Kaymer won the Abu Dhabi Championship in January '10). Of the 13 players who comprised the top 10 and ties through the first round at Kiawah Island, nine are winless this season: Aaron Baddeley, John Daly, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, Joost Luiten, Graeme McDowell, Alex Noren, Geoff Ogilvy, Adam Scott and Gary Woodland. The four victors are leader Pettersson (Heritage), Bradley (WGC-Bridgestone), McIlroy (Honda) and Scott Piercy (Canadian).

What the stats project for Day 4 at the Open Championship

Sat, 21 Jul 2012 22:38:00 GMT

Eight notable third-round stats that indicate how the Open Championship might unfold Sunday, provided by Golf World contributing writer Brett Avery, who compiles the Rank and File statistical sections for the magazine's coverage of the major championships and other significant events.

Graeme McDowell had never broken par the first three days of a major until this year's British Open. Photo: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

1. This week marks the fifth time in 46 major-championship appearances that Adam Scott has broken par in each of the first three rounds. This is the third time he has accomplished the feat in the Open Championship and his 11-under 199 at Royal Lytham & St. Annes brought his first career 54-hole lead in a major. Scott's four earlier sub-par weeks, however, were hardly crucibles in the thick of contention:

-- 2004 PGA (Whistling Straits): Began 71-71-69 and stood T-11, trailing Vijay Singh by seven strokes; closed with even-par 72 for T-9.

-- 2005 Open (St. Andrews): Began 70-71-70 and stood T-20, trailing Tiger Woods by seven; closed with three-over 75 for T-34.

-- 2006 Open (Royal Liverpool): Began 68-69-70 for T-8, trailing Woods by four; closed with even-par 72 for T-8.

-- 2006 PGA (Medinah): Began 71-69-69 and stood T-12, trailing Luke Donald and Woods by seven; closed with a five-under 67 for T-3.

The '06 PGA was 23 starts ago -- a span equaling half of his major-championship career. In that time Scott has missed the cut in seven majors and made the top 10 only three times. Those latter performances are recent, though: T-2 in the '11 Masters, where he broke par in the last three rounds (72-70-67-67); solo seventh in the '11 PGA at Atlanta AC, where he broke par all but Saturday (69-69-70-68); and T-8 in this year's Masters (75-70-73-66).

Related: Obscure British Open facts

2. As with Scott, this could mark the first time returning four sub-par rounds in a major for Graeme McDowell, who began 67-69-67 and shares second with Brandt Snedeker at seven-under 203. McDowell had never broken par the first three days of a major and only once bettered it on the first two days. During the '10 Open at St. Andrews, a month after claiming the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, McDowell began 71-68 and shared seventh, seven shots behind eventual winner Louis Oosthuizen. McDowell spiraled to 76-70 and tied for 23rd.

3. Scott is flirting with his lowest total in relation to par in his major-championship career. He finished 12 under in the '06 PGA (276) and '11 Masters (276). Unless something disastrous happens, Scott will break par over 72 holes in a major for a 10th time, including six of his last 10 starts.

4. According to the PGA Tour database, Scott and McDowell have been paired together only once in a tour event. It happened during the final round of the 2005 WGC-Cadillac Championship at Harding Park in San Francisco. McDowell shot two-under 68 and tied for sixth while Scott's 74 tied for 29th. Tiger Woods won at 10-under 270.

5. Since the 1958 Open, the 54-hole leader/co-leader has won 30 of 54 times, including Louis Oosthuizen at St. Andrews in 2010 and Darren Clarke at Royal St. George's last year. In the first 10 Opens at Lytham, the men ahead after three rounds logged six triumphs: Peter Thomson in 1958, Bob Charles in '63, Tony Jacklin in '69, Gary Player in '74, Tom Lehman in '96 and David Duval in 2001.

Related: Know your British Open courses

6. The promise of the Day 3 item concerning midway leader Brandt Snedeker's recent performance following an extremely low round met a bitter end. Since his heartbreaking T-3 in the '08 Masters, Snedeker has shot nine 63s and 64s in PGA Tour competition. The day after those scores he failed to break par only twice. Snedeker, who shot 64 in Friday's second round, avoided bogey for his first 40 holes. But Saturday he dropped six shots between the fifth and 14th holes and returned a 73. Birdies at the 16th and 18th allowed him to avoid shooting his highest next-day in that stretch, a 74 in this year's Farmers Insurance.

Statistics can buttress both the case that Snedeker has a marvelous opportunity to succeed from four shots behind Scott or has little chance to remain a factor:

Pro: His three tour wins involved last-round rallies from five shots (2007 Wyndham), six shots (2011 Heritage) and seven shots ('12 Farmers, won in a playoff).

Con: This will be Snedeker's 12th Sunday round in a major. In his first 11 tries he's averaged 72.818 and broken par only in the '11 Masters (70 for T-15) and '11 U.S. Open (69 for T-11). He played in the '08 Masters' final pairing but posted 77.

7. Next up: Tiger Woods, whose par 70 put him in solo fourth at 204, five behind Scott. Among his incentives for winning this week:

-- Fourth Open title (2000, '05, '06) would match the output of Tom Morris Sr., Tom Morris Jr., Willie Park Sr., Walter Hagen and Bobby Locke and trail only Harry Vardon (six), James Braid, John H. Taylor, Peter Thomson and Tom Watson (five each).

-- A 15th career major triumph would leave him three behind Jack Nicklaus

-- He would become the first man in PGA Tour history with more than $100 million in official earnings. Woods entered the week with $99,037,940. First prize is Â£900,000, or roughly $1.4 million.

8. For a third day the wind remained all but absent, allowing a field average of 71.807. The players hit a combined 63.6 percent of fairways and 60.1 percent of greens, and averaged 29.52 putts. The rough cost an average of 0.543 strokes for every shot hit from it. All those figures are virtually identical to the first two rounds.

The outlook for Sunday promises wind -- and plenty of it. Anyone who has spent time in Britain knows Met Office weather forecasts are subject to frequent and potentially vast revisions. That said, according to an R&A press release the seven-hour window during which the Open should be decided (1200 to 1900 local time, 7 a.m.-4 p.m. in the Eastern U.S.) calls for south-to-southwest winds of 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting 25-35 mph. That direction is almost 180 degrees opposite of what little wind the field has encountered the first three days.

One hint of how significantly such winds would affect play can be gleaned from the 2001 Open at Lytham. Thursday was mostly overcast, breezy and cool and resulted in a 73.128 average (2.128 strokes over par because No. 6 played as a par 5). With scant wind and cloudy skies the rest of the week, the field averaged 72.416 Friday, 71.414 Saturday and 72.657 Sunday. Such a small variation may seem insignificant, but the difference between calm and "breezy" conditions is far less than between calm and 35-mph gusts.

-- Brett Avery
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What the stats project for Day 3 at the Open Championship

Fri, 20 Jul 2012 21:05:00 GMT

Ten notable second-round stats that indicate how the Open Championship might unfold Saturday, provided by Golf World contributing writer Brett Avery, who compiles the Rank and File statistical sections for the magazine's coverage of the major championships and other significant events.

1. Comparisons between midway leaders Brandt Snedeker and Sir Nick Faldo, and how they scored record-low 130s in Open Championships 20 years apart, are imprecise because of different layouts for Snedeker (Royal Lytham & St. Annes) and Faldo (Muirfield). That said, here goes:

-- Relation to par: Snedeker -10, Faldo -12
-- Eagles: Snedeker 0, Faldo 2 (including a 25-yard chip-in at No. 5 Thursday)
-- Birdies: Snedeker 10, Faldo 10
-- Bogeys: Snedeker 0, Faldo 2 (No. 1 Thursday, No. 7 Friday)
-- Lead: Snedeker by one over Adam Scott, Faldo by three over Gordon Brand Jr. and John Cook

Faldo's 130 broke the longstanding mark of 132 set by Henry Cotton in 1932 at Royal St. George's and tied by Faldo (67-65) and Greg Norman (66-66) in 1990 at St. Andrews. Faldo shot two-under 69 in the third round at Muirfield to total 199, tying his own 54-hole record from two years earlier at the Old Course. And his closing 73 gave him a one-shot victory over Cook (66-67-70-70), making only his third Open start -- but first in a dozen years. Faldo made it dramatic Sunday with bogeys at the 11th, 13th and 14th before birdies at the 15th and 17th. Those dropped shots cost him the honor of being the first man in Open history with four rounds in the 60s.

2. Hints on how Snedeker will fare in the third round at Lytham might come from how he's recently handled the day after shooting an extremely low round. Since his disappointing tie for third in the 2008 Masters (69-68-70-77), where he played in the final group each of the last two days, Snedeker has shot 63 twice and 64 seven times in PGA Tour competitions. (Strangely enough, Snedeker's produced all those in first or second rounds.) Snedeker has backed up those 63s and 64s with a 68.667 next-round average. Those returns include a 65 (second round of the '10 Wyndham), three 67s, a 68 and two 69s. Then again, he's also rambled into the 70s twice in his last three opportunities, shooting a Saturday 72 at the '11 Deutsche Bank (T-3) and a Saturday 74 at this year's Farmers Insurance (won playoff).

Related: Know your British Open courses

3. Then again, this is the sixth time he's held the 36-hole lead in a PGA Tour event. He's wound up in the top 10 each time but they did not lead to any of his three career wins.

4. It's never too early to obsess about World Rankings at the Open. First, there's the not inconsequential fact that the last three winners rose from outside the top 30 (Stewart Cink 33rd, Louis Oosthuizen 54th, Darren Clarke 111th). Then there's the curve ball that the Open has a major-leading four champions from outside the top 100 since the rankings' first full season in 1987 (John Daly 109th, Paul Lawrie 159th, Ben Curtis 396th, Clarke).

--10 under: Snedeker is ranked 29th
--Nine under: Scott 13th
--Six under: Tiger Woods fourth
--Five under: Thorbjorn Olesen 112th
--Four under: Paul Lawrie 31st, Matt Kuchar eighth, Graeme McDowell 12th, Jason Dufner seventh
--Three under: Ernie Els 40th, Thomas Aiken 136th
--Two under: Steven Alker (a local qualifier) T-789th, Luke Donald first, Steve Stricker 14th, Jim Morrison 218th.

Related: Obscure open Championship facts

5. Speaking of rankings, Woods has won 11 of his majors as world No. 1. The exceptions were the 1997 Masters (13th), '99 PGA (second) and 2005 Masters (second). And in case the number 11 sounds magical: This was the 18th time Woods (67-67) broke par in each of the first two rounds at a major championship, but the first time since the '11 Masters (71-66, T-4). Of the first 17 occasions, Woods won 11 times.

6. The first time Adam Scott broke par in a major was in 2001 at Lytham, when he posted a 70 in the third round (par then was 71) en route to a tie for 47th. Saturdays, however, have given him problems of late in the game's biggest events. The Australian has broken par on only two of the last 17 third rounds, dating to the '08 U.S. Open (71 in'10 PGA, T-39; 67 in '11 Masters, T-2). And this marks the first time Scott will play in the last pairing on the weekend at a major.

7. Tom Watson made the cut on the number (three-over 143). It is the sixth time he's made the weekend in his last eight Opens. Watson's 63rd birthday is September 4. He extended his own record as the oldest competitor to make an Open cut. And, as if all that is not enough, in his last 10 weekend rounds at the Open he's averaged 71.700.

8. Looking forward a few years, as the game's epicenter shifts gradually from North America to far-flung points, Anirban Lahiri (68-72, T-28) and Jeev Milka Singh (70-71, T-40) became the first players from India to make the cut in an Open.

9. The field's scoring average Friday was 72.013, fractionally above the first round, and left the 36-hole average at 71.798. The third hole was the day's toughest (4.564, four birdies), followed by the sixth (4.410, five birdies), 15th (4.391, 10 birdies) and eighth (4.256, 12 birdies). The 13th was easiest (3.840, 42 birdies), followed by the 16th (3.859) and ninth (2.904). The field hit 65.5 percent of fairways, 60.4 percent of greens, took 29.52 putts and lost an average of 0.551 shots on every stroke out of the rough.

10. Last and, certainly the way he played, least is the case of Phil Mickelson (73-78), the No. 16 player in the world who tied for 146th in the 156-man field. His 151 matched his third-highest 36-hole total in a major (155 at Carnoustie in the '99 Open, 152 at Turnberry in the '94 Open, 151 at Oakmont in the '07 U.S. Open). It also meant Mickelson's eighth career missed cut in a major but his first since the '07 Open. The rankings of the players below him in the scoring summary: 1070th, 217th, 253rd, 1144th, 221st, 101st, T-1448th, T-1448th, T-1448th.

-- Brett Avery

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What the stats project for Day 4 at the U.S. Open

Sun, 17 Jun 2012 12:45:00 GMT

Seven notable third-round stats that indicate how the U.S. Open might unfold Sunday, provided by Golf World contributing writer Brett Avery, who compiles the Rank and File statistical sections for the magazine's coverage of the major championships and other significant events.

Ernie Els (T-4) is second to last in fairways hit among players who made the cut at Olympic, but he's tied for first with only 80 putts. Photo by: Harry How/Getty Images

1. Once again the first six holes of The Olympic Club hammered most players senseless and sent some contenders spinning out of control. The last four players off the first tee were a combined 12 over par on that stretch: co-leader Jim Furyk (70) and John Peterson (72) were two over; Tiger Woods (75) was three over and David Toms (76) five over. Conversely, Lee Westwood (67) played those holes one under and co-leader Graeme McDowell (68) even par. One scenario for the fourth round would see an early starter posting anumber and seeing whether it holds up. He probably would need to escape thefirst third of the course largely unscathed and capitalize over the last third. Here are the top eight players heading into Sunday and how they have navigated the first through sixth and the 13th through 18th:

--McDowell (209): one over; six under (no bogeys)

--Furyk (209): one over; one under

--Jacobson (211): four over (no birdies); even

--Westwood (212): four over (doubled No. 1 Thursday); one under

--Ernie Els (212): eight over (one double); one under (one triple, one eagle)

--Blake Adams (212): eight over (two doubles); one under

--Nicholas Colsaerts (212): five over (two doubles); two over

The field is a cumulative +2.497 at the first six and +0.766 at the last six.

2. Graeme McDowell has broken par in the fourth round in his last three majors: 70 in the 2010 Open Championship at St. Andrews (T-23), 69 in the '11 U.S. Open at Congressional (T-14) and 68 in this year's Masters (T-12). Furyk, on the other hand, has done it only once in his last 18 closing rounds in majors. To Furyk's benefit, however, that only time since the 2006 PGA Championship was a 70 in this year's Masters (solo 11th). Jacobson? He's made the cut in 13 of 23 career majors and has broken par Sunday just once (70 in the '03 Open Championship, T-6). His fourth-round scoring average in majors is 73.308.

3. Five of the top seven players through 54 holes are from the international contingent: McDowell (Northern Ireland), Jacobson (Sweden), Westwood (England), Els (South Africa) and Colsaerts (Belgium). If Furyk, Adams or another U.S. entrant were to win, it would mark the first time the host country won three consecutive major championship titles since the 2006 Open Championship through '07 Masters (Woods, Woods, Zach Johnson). It would make the first time three different U.S. competitors won consecutive majors since the 2003 U.S. Open to 2004 Masters (Jim Furyk, Ben Curtis, Shaun Micheel, Phil Mickelson). PS: International players have won six of the last eight Opens.

4. Because you're bound to read or hear repeatedly that Westwood has the most top-three placings in majors without a win since the 1934 inauguration of the Masters, here's the background. He's been runner-up twice ('10 Masters and Open Championship) and placed third on five occasions ('08 U.S., '09 Open Championship and PGA, '11 U.S. and '12 Masters). That ranks Westwood ahead of Colin Montgomerie (five seconds, one third) and Doug Sanders (fourseconds, two thirds).

5. Driving is eminently important in the Open but Ernie Els has hit only 13 fairways, better than only one of the 72 players to make the cut (Branden Grace, six). Hitting greens in regulation is also vital, although Els ranks T-57 this week with only 27. He's erased all those problems, however, with his putter. Els is tied for first in the field with only 80 putts. He has placed in the top 20 in fewest putts among those making an Open cut only three times (and not since 2004).

6. It doesn't tell us a thing about the fourth round, but it's fun anyway: When Furyk won the 2003 U.S. Open at Olympia Fields, Woods had won "only" eight majors.

7. As long as we're at it: The first four Opens at Olympic were won by men in their 30s (Jack Fleck, 33; Billy Casper, 34; Scott Simpson, 31; Lee Janzen, 33). That would seem to favor McDowell (32), Jacobson (37),Westwood (39), Adams (36) and Jason Dufner (35) among the top 13 players, or those leading or within four shots. [h/t PGA Tour]

-- Brett Avery
Follow @BWAvery

What the stats project for Day 3 at the U.S. Open

Sat, 16 Jun 2012 12:45:00 GMT

Five notable second-round stats that indicate how the U.S. Open might unfold Saturday, provided by Golf World contributing writer Brett Avery, who compiles the Rank and File statistical sections for the magazine's coverage of the major championships and other significant events.

David Toms has the best third round scoring average in majors among the three 54-hole leaders. Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images

1. Which of the three former major championship winners who share the lead at one-under-par 139 traditionally turns in his best performances in the third round of majors? It would be tempting to guess Tiger Woods (69-70), but his lowest average round is the second (70.281), followed by the third (70.500 in 58 career third rounds). Or perhaps it's Jim Furyk (70-69), but he's also best in the second round (71.910) and Saturday is only his third-best day (72.094 in 63 rounds). Actually it's David Toms (69-70), who has averaged 71.727 in 33 career Saturday rounds in majors. Toms, however, has been inconsistent recently Saturday at majors. He shot 76 in the 2010 Open at Pebble Beach (T-33) and 75 in this year's Masters (T-50). Furyk hasn't broken 70 in the third round of a major in his last nine tries, since his 68 in the '09 Masters (T-10). And Woods has broken 70 just once in six attempts since his 2009 car crash, a 66 in the '10 Open (T-4).

2. After Michael Thompson grabbed a three-shot lead following 18 holes, the field was able to bunch up after he collapsed (66-75). By sundown 14 players remained within four shots of the frontrunners. The 36-hole leaders in the first four Opens at Olympic Club:

--1955: Tommy Bolt and Harvie Ward at four-over 144; seven others within four

--1966: Billy Casper and Arnold Palmer at three-under 137; two others within four (Rives McBee and Phil Rodgers at par 140)

--1987: Tom Watson and Mark Wiebe at 137; 21 others within four

--1998: Payne Stewart at 137; 10 others within four

There is a history of a gang of contenders sticking around through 54 holes at Olympic. Ben Hogan (217) was pursued by eight players within four shots in '55 and Watson (208) still had 19 players equally as close. Then again, Palmer and Stewart (207 apiece) each had only two players within four shots, yet lost.

3. Of the 14 players within four strokes, only two have won major championships: Graeme McDowell (69-72, 2010 Open) and Charl Schwartzel (73-70, 2011 Masters). In the true fashion of an all-comers Open, that group also featured three players in the world top 10 (Hunter Mahan, 72-71, ranked eighth; Matt Kuchar, 70-73, sixth; Jason Dufner, 72-71, ninth) and three players outside the top 500 (John Peterson, 71-70, 831st; Aaron Watkins, 72-71, T-734; amateur Beau Hossler, 70-73, unranked).

4. Hossler, 17, who temporarily took the lead at -2 after making birdie at the first hole, threatened to become the first amateur leading after an Open round since Mike Reid's 67 at Atlanta Athletic Club was the only sub-par return in 1976's Open round. He finished T-50. Hossler promptly went bogey-par-double-bogey-bogey-birdie-bogey to shoot 73 and settle into a tie for ninth. The last time an amateur led the Open through 54 holes was Jim Simons, who closed with 76 at Merion in 1971 and totaled 283. That put him in a tie for fifth, three away from the Lee Trevino-Jack Nicklaus playoff. Hossler, who missed the cut last year at Congressional, became the first high school player to qualify for consecutive Opens since Mason Rudolph in 1950-51.

5. With the cut made, everyone begins the last two rounds at the first tee. Looming in front of every competitor are the first six holes, which played to a combined +2.647 over par in the second round. The leaders versus those holes in the first 36:

--Furyk: +1 (one bogey, two birdies)

--Woods: E (three bogeys, including the sixth both days; three birdies)

--Toms: +2 (three bogeys, including the sixth both days; one birdie at fourth)

--Peterson: +2 (double at sixth Thursday; three bogeys; three birdies)

--Nicolas Colsaerts: +5 (doubles at first and third Thursday; bogey at sixth Friday)

--Graeme McDowell: +1 (three bogeys, two birdies)

--Thompson: +3 (five bogeys, including the fifth both days; two birdies)

-- Brett Avery
Follow @BWAvery

Comparing the Nicklaus & Woods 73s

Cliff Schrock — Thu, 07 Jun 2012 04:00:00 GMT

Variety separates Jack's record from Tiger's.

Seven notable stats from Day 3 at the Players

Sun, 13 May 2012 00:26:00 GMT

Seven notable third-round Players Championship stats from Golf World contributing writer Brett Avery, who compiles the Rank and File statistical sections for the magazine's coverage of the major championships and other significant events:

1. Two men who traditionally play their best in the third round, Matt Kuchar and Rickie Fowler, excelled Saturday and put themselves in position to win the Players Championship. Kuchar's three-under-par 69 bore everything from a 2 to a 6 and only a bogey at the 17th, where his tee ball splashed short of the island green, cost him a share of the lead at 12-under-par 204 with Kevin Na. Kuchar has posted his best scoring average in the third round in nine of his 11 PGA Tour seasons. Fowler posted his third consecutive sub-70 third round, a day's-best 66. It followed his 69 at New Orleans (finished T10) and a 67 last week at Wells Fargo (won). It was the first time Fowler's shot in the 60s in the third round of three consecutive official tour starts since May and June in 2010 (Colonial, 64, T-38; Memorial, 69, second; Travelers, 69, T-13). If their 2012 form holds for Kuchar and Fowler, they may struggle in the fourth round, their worst scoring day this season. Kuchar came into this week ranked 23rd on Sunday (70.25) while Fowler stands 63rd (71.11). Leader Na? The last round is statistically his strongest, although he ranks 47th at 70.78.

2. Kuchar and Na remain the only players eligible to end one of the longest-standing droughts in Players history: No player has posted four rounds in the 60s since Steve Elkington won in 1997 (66-69-68-69). Kuchar (68-68-69) has made five cuts in eight starts at Sawgrass but Saturday was only his second weekend score in the 60s (68, fourth round in '09). Na (67-69-67) put up his first weekend sub-70 in five tries. Elkington is joined in the all-sub-60s club at Sawgrass by the three top finishers in 1994: Greg Norman (63-67-67-67), Fuzzy Zoeller (65-67-68-67) and Jeff Maggert (65-69-69-68).

3. There's an outside chance the tournament record at TPC Sawgrass for most birdies could be tied or broken. It was set by Fuzzy Zoeller, who made 26 in 1994 while finishing four strokes behind Greg Norman. Na (20), Fowler (19) and Kuchar (18) have an outside chance -- although what's most interesting is that they are among the less-likely candidates in a field of 144 of the world's best. Na went into the week tied for 34th among PGA Tour players this year in total birdies (151), while Fowler stands T-39 (149) and Kuchar T-93 (122). Season leader Cameron Tringale (180) has made only a dozen at the Stadium Course, which gives him a share of 21st for the week.