"Golf is going to be a big thing in China in the future," says Aylwin Tai, the man who discovered Liang Wen-chong and who has played such a pivotal role in the game's early development in China. "Once the government knows about golf and realizes the economic impact of the game, it will take off. A golf industry can have a massive positive economic impact in a way that, say, a tennis industry can't. If the government really gets behind it, like with other sports such as gymnastics, golf in China will outstrip golf in America in 10 years."
Tai says that if the government really set its mind to attacking the world golf rankings, the top 10 in the world would eventually be Chinese, though he more realistically expects there to be no more than 20 in the world top 100 in 10 years. (Leadbetter, who calls China "the new frontier," estimates the number will be "half a dozen.") "Maybe the government's cautious position is good, a blessing in disguise," continues Tai. "It means we can develop and grow golf the right way, in a healthy way, slowly and with stability. We don't want golf to turn into a bubble."
Long term, China is uniquely suited to golf. One theory is that the nation's vast numbers of only children might naturally take to individual, solitary sports like golf, in the manner of famous only children like, say, Tiger Woods, Nick Faldo, Lance Armstrong. "We've got the golf courses, the weather, the people," says Tai. "This is not a physical-contact sport -- it's a mental sport. The Chinese will excel. Golf in China will take over the world."
In Chinese astrology, this is the Year of the Rat. The woman in the jade store, the Tiger Woods fan, had told me that this means it is a year for hard work, for change and for a fresh start -- a mission statement for a grand renaissance. For Beijing, golf and everything else in China, these are interesting times.
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