Handicap Question: Editors' Blog: Golf Digest

Handicap Question

Tuesday, October 21, 2008 Comments

Golf Digest reader Donald G. Klein was one of the first to reply to Editor Jerry Tarde's request for suggestions and story ideas. Klein wants stories on handicapping, specifically on one question: Why do high handicappers always seem to win net events?

As a member of a private country club and a longtime golf committee member, we are always faced with various handicapping issues. For example, when there is a net handicap tournament, I have observed through over thirty five years of observation, the handicapper with a higher handicap will always win the net prize. The poor handicapper with a high single digit never wins. They also never win the gross prize either. A golf pro once told me that the purpose of the handicap should be to bring all golfers to a par basis. There needs to be a scientific approach to finding the right formula for equalization of handicaps in tournaments. I would like to see golf magazines do research, or report on research that may have been done and provide readers with more ideas for tournament scoring, various different types of tournaments etc. that can be played.

Thank you for your seeking ideas from your readers.

Thanks for the good story idea. So you don't have to wait for the story, we asked Dean Knuth, our professional advisor who is former senior director of handicapping at the USGA to give you his take. Here's Knuth:

Although it may appear that high handicap players win net events most often, it really is because about 60% of golfers are in the handicap range of 13 to 19, so a golfer from the majority most likely will win good percentage of the time just by sampling probabilities. However, there is a "Bonus for Excellence" built into the USGA Handicap System formula, so that lower handicap players do have an advantage--But, there just aren't as many of them, so they often don't win frequently.

If a club finds that certain individuals win more than their fair share, then you might want to look at the Knuth Tournament Point System. It is a widely-used system that reduces the tournament handicaps of players that win or finish high too frequently.

--Bob Carney

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Archived Comments (2) Click to expand

I'm fully aware that I may be wrong here, but Dean's answer doesn't mesh with what I've seen happen over the years.

Basically, given ten 18 handicappers and ten six-handicappers, it seems far more likely to me that one of the higher handicappers will shoot below their handicap by, say, four strokes than one of the six handicappers.

The USGA's handicap charts back that up as well:
http://www.usga.org/playing/handicaps/understanding_handicap/articles/deanstable.html

Odds of a six-handicap shooting four better than his handicap: 121:1. Odds of the 18 handicap doing so? 87:1.

I think THAT is the answer to the question: the higher your handicap, the easier it is to beat it in a net competition. That is why those golfers tend to win prizes. A single scratch golfer playing in the same event will probably win the low gross score nearly every time, too, in my experience.

Posted by iacas October 22, 2008 11:20 AM

Interesting theory, but the theory that higher handicap players are more likely to win against low handicap players was proven false by the USGA's Handicap Research Team (HRT).
The simple answer is that players have higher spread (range)of scores as handicaps go up, and because USGA Handicaps are based on the best half of a player's differentials, players with higher spread develop relatively lower handicaps than more consistent players (typically lower handicap players).

Actually, that is too simple of an answer, because the subject is more complex than that. The HRT found three distinct types of players, which I will call "Wild Willy, "Steady Eddy" and "Average Andy". WW typically is long off the tee, but not accurate. Steady Eddy is short but straight and Average Andy is a mixture of both, and represents the most golfers in the three categories.

WW periodically has rounds that beat his handicap by several strokes, but those scores immediately have an effect of lowering the player's handicap at the next revision (Best 10 of 20 formula). AA somewhat has the same issue, in the event that he puts a good round together, again the handicap goes down. SE's handicap is the closest to his average play, but his ability to beat his handicap by more than a stroke or two is less than the other two player types.

Research that I had conducted also showed that different types of players might need more or fewer strokes than the Slope System provides based on the type of course. SE might do better on a tight-short course. WW might do better on an open-long course. The solution was to map player type to course type--essentially added a dimension to the Slope System. Some thought that this answer was too complex, so it never went forward. However, these issues should show that making the assumption that everyone is an Average Andy causes some unresolved issues.

Despite the above variables, "overall" and "on average", my first answer stands, and there is a Bonus for Excellence built into the USGA Handicap System that favors the low handicap players.

Thanks,

Dean Knuth

Posted by deanknuth October 27, 2008 7:25 PM