Diaz
Promises, Promises
History tells us that even the best young players eventually show their faults
The equation seems simple: Tiger Woods' Vulnerability + Most Precocious Players Ever = New World Order. In a youth-obsessed culture, eagerness ensues.
We heard it before the 2005 season, when Woods was also in a zero-for-10 drought in the majors. Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Charles Howell III and others were hailed as those who would overtake him. They never unseated or unsettled Woods, and now those players are at least 30.
Many believe it will be different with the new class. The Woods they're challenging is older at 35, more worn physically and definitely unsettled, replaced at No. 1 by Lee Westwood. They respect and emulate his game but don't fear him as their predecessors did.
Leading the charge is Martin Kaymer, who has a major victory and has been ranked as high as No. 3. Another 26-year-old, Dustin Johnson, led on the final day in two majors last year and has as much physical game as a young Woods.
But what gives the current group its distinction is its youth. The world has never seen the likes of Matteo Manassero, 17; Ryo Ishikawa, 19; and Rory McIlroy, 21, at the same time. Early success has been a good indicator of winning genius. It was certainly true of Jones, Nicklaus and especially Woods. But it's hardly foolproof, former phenom Ty Tryon being the latest cautionary tale.
But even if a true youth movement comes to fruition, it will still have to go some to become historic. At the start of 1976, Tom Watson, Johnny Miller, Hubert Green, Ben Crenshaw, Jerry Pate and Lanny Wadkins were all under 30. In their 20s, they won a total of 70 PGA Tour events, including seven majors. By comparison, the winningest six among the current under-30s -- including Johnson, Camilo Villegas, Anthony Kim, Sean O'Hair, Hunter Mahan and J.B. Holmes -- have 18. (Kaymer, who has eight European tour wins, and Louis Oosthuizen, who has two, have the only majors among players in their 20s.)
Germany's Martin Kaymer captured
the 2010 PGA Championship.
(Photo: J.D. Cuban)
"We keep hearing there are all these great young players, but none of them have won very often," says Miller, who had 18 victories in his 20s, matching Watson. "They look like they should be doing it, but nobody's really doing it."
Miller is harsh but essentially right. Plenty of possible reasons for less winning have been put forth: more good players to beat, less concentration on the PGA Tour, increased scrutiny that raises pressure, more money reducing motivation. But the biggest reason is that golf is producing fewer complete players. Woods, who won an amazing 46 times in his 20s, including 10 majors, might be the model, but even factoring in his late-career troubles with the driver, no young player since has been as accomplished through the bag. Garcia, Scott, Howell and Trevor Immelman in particular have been good ball-strikers but sadly lacking on and around the greens, an all-too-common pattern among today's young stars.
When it comes to being the best, what a player is missing is more important than what he has. Everyone's missing something, of course, but perhaps the ultimate attribute of a champion is turning a weakness into a strength.
On the basis that there is still time for anyone under 30 to become the game's best (Ben Hogan didn't win his first individual event until he was 27), here's a player-by-player chronicle, from youngest to oldest, and what each is missing.
Matteo Manassero, 17, Italy, one European tour win: distance. The otherwise very sound Manassero averaged only 271 yards to rank near the bottom of the tour. More length might come with physical maturity. Twenty more yards on top of Trevino-style ball control and solid putting would be formidable.
Ryo Ishikawa, 19, Japan, nine Japanese tour victories: trailblazing spirit. The recent decision by the 58-shooter and Presidents Cup star to continue to play most of his golf in his homeland follows a tradition of Japanese underachievement in America and elsewhere. With some two dozen Japanese sponsors, Ishikawa has enormous pressure to stay home, but it's a Faustian bargain.
Rory McIlroy, 21, Northern Ireland, one PGA Tour victory, one European win: drive. McIlroy seems a little too satisfied for one so gifted. It's reflected in his laissez-faire course management and his not-quite-locked-in putting. Forgetting how many cars he has was not a good sign, nor was indicating he might skip the Players Championship because he doesn't like the course.
Rickie Fowler, 22, United States, no tour victories: perspective. Opportunities are coming at golf's new glamour boy very fast, but he shouldn't forget that they will all be fleeting if he doesn't win tournaments. Behind all the orange, Fowler appears level-headed, and he was clutch at the Ryder Cup. But his shots around the green need more work than his image.
Jason Day, 23, Australia, one PGA Tour victory: confidence. Day is gifted but has been shaky on Sundays. He limped to the house in his victory at Dallas, and he faded late at the Memorial, PGA, Deutsche Bank and Tour Championship. His final-round average of 71.92 ranked 154th on tour.
Anthony Kim, 25, United States, three PGA Tour wins: dedication. The stories of Kim's nocturnal excesses are giving him a Daly-esque image, complete with increasingly hollow denials. Kim's supporters worry that he's going to waste his talent. Says one: "The day Anthony realizes that just being himself is cool enough will be a big day for him."
Martin Kaymer, 26, Germany, eight European tour wins, one major: not much. Kaymer has no glaring weakness physically and most impresses with his poise, course management and toughness under pressure. Unlike so many promising young players, he's a superior scrambler and putter. He has the most room for improvement in his ball striking, which is good but not yet world-beater caliber.
Michael Sim, 26, Australia, no victories: health. Sim missed two months in 2010 with a nagging right-shoulder injury while finishing 65th on the money list. He missed a portion of the 2007 season because of a spinal stress fracture. He impressed on the Nationwide Tour in 2009, when he won three events. A middling ball-striker, his strength is saving shots with a superb putting stroke.
Charl Schwartzel, 26, South Africa, five European tour victories: putting consistency. Excellent tee to green, the son of former tour pro is too streaky as a putter. He began 2010 hot with victories in his first two European tour events, but then the putter went cold. He was among the top 30 in all four majors.
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