The most-cited partipation surveys show a game that's at best treading water and might be dipping under. The National Sporting Goods Association's 2008 survey shows golf's player pool shrank 7.3 percent from 2003 to 2007. The National Golf Foundation's latest report shows rounds played are down 3.5 percent for the first quarter of 2008 and basically flat since 2005. It also shows the number of core golfers has declined.
Longitudes' research includes information from its database of six million golfers, analysis of golf-facility supply and demand, and interviews with hundreds of private-club and thousands of public-course managers nationwide. The group studied the relationship between the supply of public courses in the 27 largest markets across the country and the green fees at those courses, and compared the changes in green fees over the last five years to changes in the Consumer Price Index.
This sophisticated research shows that course operators are facing problems more complicated than just a reduced flow of customers. Courses' peak fees have gone up at the same rate as inflation, but off-peak rates -- which account for a majority of the rounds played -- increased 33 percent more than the CPI. In other words, prices have risen even in the face of flat or reduced demand. That doesn't bode well for attracting new and younger golfers in a weak economy. "Energy costs are going up, and the cost of fertilizer has doubled in the last two years," says Longitudes President Sara Killeen. "Course operators had to raise rates or go under -- and the number of daily-fee courses has dropped 2.5 percent in five years. They're feeling it from all sides. The successful ones are working very hard on their business 365 days a year and managing the details very astutely."
But like a teacher assessing a tour player's round more by how he hit the ball than the number on the scorecard, some industry insiders say the negative participation trends and business forecasts don't tell the full story.
"We do a pretty good job keeping score both on and off the course in the golf industry," says Joe Steranka, CEO of the PGA of America, which represents 28,000 club professionals. "Our figures tell us participation is up 2 percent [NGF, 2000 to 2006], and we've had real economic growth in the game. We went from a $62 billion industry in 2000 to $76 billion in 2005. We've grown from a boutique industry to a real industry."
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