When Might Tiger Pass Jack?

Cover story: Tiger's Secrets

PREDICTIONS
2008: Tiger has won four of his 11 Masters as a pro -- more often than once every three years. After disappointments at Augusta the past two years (T-3 and T-2), he's due. A victory would give him five green coats and 14 pro majors. Next, Tiger has already won five times on tour at Torrey Pines, though not in a major. In 10 Buick Invitationals at Torrey, his finishes are 3-1-2-4-5-1-10-1-1-1. How is he not the huge favorite in the U.S. Open there? The count goes to 15. Four to go.

2009: Just to make it interesting, let's say Tiger falls short in 2009 at Augusta, Bethpage (where he won by three in 2002) and Turnberry but wins at Hazeltine (where he was runner-up to Rich Beem by a stroke in 2002). That would match Nicklaus' five PGAs and run the count to 16 pro majors. Three to go.

2010: There's no such thing as a lock in golf, but it's hard to argue against Tiger winning at Pebble Beach (where he won by 15 strokes in 2000) and St. Andrews (where he won by eight in 2000 and by five in 2005). We were tempted to pick Tiger at Bethpage in 2009, but no one has won three consecutive U.S. Opens. With a victory at Pebble -- add that to a win at Torrey, and he would tie the record of four Open victories -- and another claret jug at St. Andrews, that makes 17 and 18 pro majors. One to go.

2011: What a perfect place to break Nicklaus' record, at age 35 matching Jack's six green coats with another victory at Augusta. (Jack won six of his 18 majors after he'd turned 35.) The argument against Tiger getting to 19 this quickly: Even though the upcoming venues are particularly appealing to him, this would give him six victories in his next 13 majors (or seven of 14, counting his win at Southern Hills in the 2007 PGA). The counter-argument: Tiger won seven of 11 majors from 1999-2002.