Still The One

Tiger Woods heads into the 2009 Masters as the favorite to win yet again. But what about the rest of the field's chances?

By John Antonini

Photo by Getty Images

April 7, 2009

Oh, how the tide has turned. Prior to the Arnold Palmer Invitational it was Phil Mickelson, not Tiger Woods, who was barreling toward the Masters with a world of confidence and no discernable weaknesses in his game. Mickelson won the Northern Trust Open and the WGC-CA Championship and appeared primed for the Masters, while Woods, who had only played two events after returning from knee surgery, was anything but, especially after struggling on the greens at Doral.

But after Woods' 72nd-hole victory at Bay Hill and Mickelson's wind-aided missed cut at last week's Shell Houston Open, the position of the two favorites to win the year's first major has juxtaposed.

There are no longer any questions whether Woods' rehabilitated left knee can withstand the pressure of 72 holes. Nor are there concerns about Woods' putting, which is what happens when you make a 14-foot birdie putt to win a tournament. Mickelson, on the other hand, likes to prepare for majors by competing in the previous week's PGA Tour event. But the missed cut left that work incomplete.

Now the concern is that the early exit forces Mickelson into a different routine as the Masters nears. For Phil, preparation is the mother of coronation, and although he can win at Augusta after a MC--just as Trevor Immelman did a year ago--he has fallen behind Woods on Golf World's list of favorites. Here then is the entire 96-player field at the Masters, listed in order of their chance to win:

1. Tiger Woods: As if we needed a reminder, Bay Hill proved the focus and incredible will to win is still there. But he didn't battle through eight months of rehab to win Arnold Palmer's tournament. Remember, Woods has only won one of the last six Masters, a fact that certainly eats away at him. And when Tiger's hungry, watch out.

2. Phil Mickelson: In 2004 and 2006 Mickelson won PGA Tour events prior to winning the Masters, but that doesn't mean his wins at Riviera and Doral assure a Masters title. Only three times in his career has Mickelson not won a tour event prior to the Masters (1992, 1999, 2003). Mickelson takes pride in his prep work prior to majors and we're not sure he got anything out of his time in Houston. Phil is still a viable contender, but it's enough to push Woods past him on our ranking.

3. Geoff Ogilvy: The tour leader in putts per GIR and birdie-conversion percentage, Ogilvy is the favorite to become the first Australian to win the Masters. However Ogilvy hasn't shot a round in the 60s at Augusta and has five rounds of 75 or higher.

4. Paul Casey: Truth be told, Casey was on our short-list of contenders before the Houston win, but his first PGA Tour win came not a moment too soon. The only players to get their first win at the Masters were Claude Harmon in 1948 and Bernhard Langer in 1985.

5. Retief Goosen: Only six players have won the Masters after turning 40. Five are hall of famers (Ben Crenshaw, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player and Sam Snead). Mark O'Meara rounds out the list. Goosen turned 40 on Feb. 3, but with top-three finishes in four of the last seven Masters and the win in Tampa a few weeks ago, he deserves this lofty perch.

6. Padraig Harrington: Harrington, Nick Price (1994) and Tiger Woods (2000) are the only players in the Masters era to win the British Open and PGA Championship in the same year. Woods, of course, completed the Tiger Slam by winning the Masters in 2001. In 1995 Price missed the Masters cut. Which path will Harrington follow?

7. Justin Rose:A well-known frontrunner at Augusta, Rose has held or shared the first-round lead three of the last five years. His first-round scoring average is 69.3. It's 74.75 the rest of the week.

8. Henrik Stenson: Although he has never shot a subpar round at Augusta, Stenson has finished T-17 the last two years. A quality player with the game to compete in any tournament he plays.

9. Luke Donald: Tied for fifth on tour in putting and ninth in scoring in 2009, Donald hasn't finished lower than T-25 in six Masters starts. Hey, if Trevor Immelman, Zach Johnson and Mike Weir can win the Masters, why not Luke?

10. Nick Watney: Off to the best start of his career with a win, three top-fives, and no missed cuts in eight starts. Watney finished T-11 in his first Masters a year ago.

11. Sergio Garcia: He's much improved, especially with the putter, from where he was a year ago at this time, but consecutive missed cuts at Augusta and the fact his improvement hasn't resulted in tournament success in 2009, temper optimism for the Spaniard.

12. Mike Weir: A good start is essential. The Canadian shot a first-round 70 when he won in 2003; it remains his best first-round score in nine Masters.

13. Miguel Angel Jim�nez: Why has the Spaniard had such a sparkling career at Augusta National, with a T-8, a T-9, a T-10 and a T-11 in the last seven years? Because he knows how to putt on the ultraslick, undulating greens.

14. Angel Cabrera:The 2007 U.S. Open winner has more top-10s at the Masters (three) than at any other major.

15. Rory McIlroy: While we wait to coronate the next big thing, let's remember the first young superstar of the modern era to excel at Augusta and say a prayer for Seve Ballesteros, who won four days after his 23rd birthday in 1980.

16. Andres Romero: Romero finished T-8 in his first Masters a year ago. Since 1990, 19 players have finished in the top 10 in their first appearance at Augusta. Only Carlos Franco (2000) and Tom Lehman (1994) would repeat the following year. None of the 19 have won a Masters.

17. Zach Johnson: Johnson is one of five players whose only top-10 finish(es) in the Masters have been victories. The list includes George Archer, Sandy Lyle, Fuzzy Zoeller, and Nick Faldo, whose only three top-10s were his three wins.

18. Stewart Cink: One of three players who have finished in the top 20 in the last five Masters, joining Vijay Singh (nine times) and Retief Goosen (seven) on the list.

19. Vijay Singh: Singh's indifferent play (no top-10s in 2009), health issues (he missed time because of knee surgery and has complained of a sore back) and age (he's about a month younger than Jack Nicklaus was when he became the oldest winner in tournament history in 1986) drop him from the top tier of contenders.

20. Jim Furyk: Normally a very accurate hitter (he led the Masters field in fairways hit in 2007), he's had a bit of a downswing after consecutive top-10s at the WGC-Accenture Match Play and WGC-CA championships. His three top-10s at Augusta are his fewest in any major.