It's Not All That Crazy

It may sound a little crazy to you, but Ron Sirak is going out on a limb: Tiger will tie Byron Nelson's record of 11 sraight PGA Tour wins

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By Ron Sirak

February 24, 2008

The following column is absurd. The premise is ridiculous. It is a fanciful flight beyond the improbable and past the impossible, landing smack dab in the middle of the inconceivable. Yet, since it involves Tiger Woods, speculation involving that which seems to be beyond the pale is within reason. Here it goes: Tiger will tie Byron Nelson's record of 11 consecutive PGA Tour victories when he wins the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in June.

If you haven't noticed, the greatest golfer ever is playing better than ever right now. He is also getting the kind of breaks great players get when they accomplish feats that are truly extraordinary. In winning the Accenture Match Play Championship by routing Stewart Cink 8 and 7 Sunday in a match that was not as close as the score indicates, Woods completed a clinic on The Gallery at Dove Mountain course near Tucson that once again demonstrated that he is the best player in every aspect of the game -- power, precision, putting and most conclusively, mental toughness.

On Wednesday, when Woods was 3 down with 5 holes to play against J.B. Holmes, all he did was go birdie, birdie, birdie, eagle to send a dazed Holmes packing. Then, in his third-round match against Aaron Baddeley, the young Australian had birdie putts inside 15 feet on the 18th and 19th holes to defeat Woods but missed them both. On the next hole, when Woods had an opportunity of the same length, he converted. He got a break in that Baddeley missed -- twice -- but, as great athletes do, he took advantage of those breaks.

Here are some numbers to consider from the Accenture Match Play: In 117 holes, Woods made 45 birdies and two eagles. He played 47 of his 117 holes under par. Against Baddeley; he made birdies on 10 of the 20 holes they played. Against Cink he made 14 birdies in 29 holes. And let me ask you this: Did you see Woods miss ay putts that he needed?

Now, let's get back to breaking that Byron Nelson record. Since Tiger doesn't like to reveal his schedule more than about a minute in advance, we can only speculate where he will play. But if you pay attention to Woods you notice that there is a definite pattern to where he plays, with only a few variables. The victory at the Accenture was Tiger's fourth in a row on the PGA Tour, going back to the BMW Championship last September. The way I have it figured, Woods' next seven tournaments will be played on courses where he has won a combined 22 times. Let's take a look:

Next up will be the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented by MasterCard at the Bayhill Club and Lodge. All Tiger has done there is win four consecutive times (2000-03). He'll follow that up with the WGC-CA Championship at Doral, where he has won three PGA Tour events. That sets him up for the Masters, and he already has four green jackets hanging in his locker at Augusta National Golf Club.

OK, that brings us to seven in a row. Next up for him after the Masters, I'm thinking, will be the Wachovia Championship at a Quail Hollow Club he loves and where he won last year. The Players Championship follows that, which might be the trickiest one in the mix. His only PGA Tour victory on the Stadium Course at Sawgrass came in 2001 and it is the only course in the next seven venues he will play where he has competed more than five times and not had multiple victories.

The Memorial, where Tiger has three consecutive victories (1999-01), will likely follow the Players. Again, like Bayhill, it's been a while since Woods has won at Muirfield Village Golf Club, but he does have a successful track record. That brings us to the U.S. Open with Tiger trying to tie Byron.